Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Dino Polska is a grocery supermarket chain in Poland that specializes in rural and small-town markets</li><li>Their strategy involves opening standardized stores with fresh groceries, meat, and staples at competitive prices</li><li>Dino has differentiated itself by owning and developing all of its stores and vertically integrating its meat processing operations, positioning them for continued success and further expansion.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Dino Polska is a grocery supermarket chain in Poland that specializes in rural and small-town marketsTheir strategy involves opening standardized stores with fresh groceries, meat, and staples at competitive pricesDino has differentiated itself by owning and developing all of its stores and vertically integrating its meat processing operations, positioning them for continued success and further expansion.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Dino Polska (DNP) - Thursday, Jun 20, 2024

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>On March 2 we discussed how the pullback in global equities was in full swing as Europe/UK indexes displayed 4.5-month uptrend breaks, joining the pullback in the MSCI ACWI.</li>
<li>At the time, we expected this pullback in the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) to move down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low) or $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>ACWI-US broke below $86 and is approaching $84. $84 will be an important support level to monitor, but if it breaks, the $75-77 level is still firmly in the cards.</li>
</ul>


On March 2 we discussed how the pullback in global equities was in full swing as Europe/UK indexes displayed 4.5-month uptrend breaks, joining the pullback in the MSCI ACWI.
At the time, we expected this pullback in the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) to move down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low) or $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
ACWI-US broke below $86 and is approaching $84. $84 will be an important support level to monitor, but if it breaks, the $75-77 level is still firmly in the cards.


Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We identify stocks in the EMEA region that are filling the void created by Russia's removal from financial markets in 2022.</li>
<li>MENA stocks have benefitted from rotation, led by Saudi Aramco,  Emaar Properties and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saudi-basic-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27316:1" rel="noopener">Saudi Basic Industries</a>
</li>
<li>Outside of MENA, South Africa remains an important destination, whilst <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dino-polska-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27637:1" rel="noopener">Dino Polska SA (DNP PW)</a> and MOL are favoured in Eastern Europe</li>
</ul>


We identify stocks in the EMEA region that are filling the void created by Russia's removal from financial markets in 2022.
MENA stocks have benefitted from rotation, led by Saudi Aramco,  Emaar Properties and Saudi Basic Industries

Outside of MENA, South Africa remains an important destination, whilst Dino Polska SA (DNP PW) and MOL are favoured in Eastern Europe


Poland

"Dino Polska" Spolka Akcyjna runs medium-sized proximity supermarkets in residential locations. The Company offers chemicals, cosmetics and grocery products - including fruits, vegetables and fresh meat. The Dino Polska servers customers in Poland.

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Dino Polska SA (DNP PW)

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Dino Polska (DNP) - Thursday, Jun 20, 2024

Dino has differentiated itself by owning and developing all of its stores and vertically integrating its meat processing operations, positioning...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

Europe/UK STOXX Europe 50/FTSE 100 with concerning breakdowns below 3800 and 7700, joining the pullback that had already started in the MSCI ACWI....

Vermilion Research

Replacing Russia: EMEA Stock Screening

We identify stocks in the EMEA region that are filling the void created by Russia's removal from financial markets in 2022.

Steven Holden

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