Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-March.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 12 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could see passive outflows in August.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-March.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 12 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could see passive outflows in August.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index ends in August. The changes will be announced mid-September and implemented at the close on 27 September.</li>
<li>Four potential constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 16% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.71bn (US$80m).</li>
<li>Three of the four potential deletions are due to a change in the index universe and there will be selling from other passive trackers too.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index ends in August. The changes will be announced mid-September and implemented at the close on 27 September.
Four potential constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 16% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.71bn (US$80m).
Three of the four potential deletions are due to a change in the index universe and there will be selling from other passive trackers too.


NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes in September

<ul>
<li>With 3 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 18% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 55bn (US$660m). 9 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>All the deletes are F&amp;O members while most adds are not. NSE Indices may have to revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.</li>
</ul>


With 3 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 18% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 55bn (US$660m). 9 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
All the deletes are F&amp;O members while most adds are not. NSE Indices may have to revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Non-F&O Stocks Replace F&O Members

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Capital Markets

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals, the largest India-focused CDMO, has set price band of Rs 646–679/share for its upcoming IPO. The company has blue chip and sticky clientele.</li>
<li>The Indian domestic CDMO market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% during FY24–28, nearly doubling its historical growth rate.</li>
<li>Akums seeks a P/E valuation of 28.7–30.2x, which seems to be reasonable compared with listed peers.</li>
</ul>


Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals, the largest India-focused CDMO, has set price band of Rs 646–679/share for its upcoming IPO. The company has blue chip and sticky clientele.
The Indian domestic CDMO market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% during FY24–28, nearly doubling its historical growth rate.
Akums seeks a P/E valuation of 28.7–30.2x, which seems to be reasonable compared with listed peers.


Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals IPO: Subscribe on Favorable Industry Tailwind and Reasonable Pricing

India

Divi's Laboratories Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical products which include generic drugs and their intermediates. The Company also undertakes contract research activities for other pharmaceutical companies.

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Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN)

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 4...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes in September

Four constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 16% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.71bn...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Non-F&O Stocks Replace F&O Members

There could be 7 changes for the Nifty Next 50. The addition of non-FnO stocks and deletion of FnO stocks raises index replication issues. Expect...

Brian Freitas

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Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 4...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes in September

Four constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 16% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.71bn...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Non-F&O Stocks Replace F&O Members

There could be 7 changes for the Nifty Next 50. The addition of non-FnO stocks and deletion of FnO stocks raises index replication issues. Expect...

Brian Freitas

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals IPO: Subscribe on Favorable Industry Tailwind and Reasonable Pricing

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals, has set IPO price band at Rs 646–679 per share, seeking a P/E valuation of 28.7–30.2x, which seems to be...

Tina Banerjee