Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Petroleo Brasileiro  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.</li>
<li>Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.
Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.
Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX


Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Market sentiment remains optimistic, we anticipate the rally to continue with 20,200 on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> as a trend check level. </li>
<li>There are concerns about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/one-97-communications-limited-paytm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm (PAYTM IN)</a> growth in personal loans in the near term, but the merchant side provides a large enough opportunity.  </li>
<li>Other names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poonawalla-fincorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3449:1" rel="noopener">Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/five-star-business-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35238:1" rel="noopener">Five Star Business Finance (FIVESTAR IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Market sentiment remains optimistic, we anticipate the rally to continue with 20,200 on the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) as a trend check level. 
There are concerns about Paytm (PAYTM IN) growth in personal loans in the near term, but the merchant side provides a large enough opportunity.  
Other names discussed include Eicher Motors (EIM IN), Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN), and Five Star Business Finance (FIVESTAR IN) 


[Week 12] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Opportunity Size Outweigh Growth Concerns

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/concord-biotech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36267:1" rel="noopener">Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN)</a> reported robust performance in Q2FY24. Revenue grew 65% YoY to INR2.6 billion, while EBITDA and PAT jumped more than 3x compared to year-ago quarter.</li>
<li>The company has increased capacity utilization at all the three manufacturing facilities. Operational efficiencies have helped the bottom line to achieve faster growth than the top line.</li>
<li>With a high runway for growth and improving market scenario, especially for Indian pharma companies, the company remains highly optimistic to surpass its historical 18% revenue CAGR this year.</li>
</ul>



Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN) reported robust performance in Q2FY24. Revenue grew 65% YoY to INR2.6 billion, while EBITDA and PAT jumped more than 3x compared to year-ago quarter.
The company has increased capacity utilization at all the three manufacturing facilities. Operational efficiencies have helped the bottom line to achieve faster growth than the top line.
With a high runway for growth and improving market scenario, especially for Indian pharma companies, the company remains highly optimistic to surpass its historical 18% revenue CAGR this year.


Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN): Q2 EBITDA and PAT Triples on Operational Efficiencies

Equity Capital Markets

Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-jet-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36373:1" rel="noopener">Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd (BJHC IN)</a> is a CDMO focusing on specialty pharmaceutical and healthcare ingredients and intermediates. The company targets to raise $100M from its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>The IPO, which will open for subscription on October 25, consists of OFS of 24.3M shares by two of the promoters. The price range has been fixed at INR329–346/share.</li>
<li>Blue Jet enjoys a competitive advantage in the global contrast media market through established customer relationships with the top contrast media manufacturers. The company is on a capacity expansion spree.</li>
</ul>



Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd (BJHC IN) is a CDMO focusing on specialty pharmaceutical and healthcare ingredients and intermediates. The company targets to raise $100M from its upcoming India IPO.
The IPO, which will open for subscription on October 25, consists of OFS of 24.3M shares by two of the promoters. The price range has been fixed at INR329–346/share.
Blue Jet enjoys a competitive advantage in the global contrast media market through established customer relationships with the top contrast media manufacturers. The company is on a capacity expansion spree.


Blue Jet Healthcare IPO: Niche Offering and Long-Standing Customer Relationship Are Key Positives

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

India

Divi's Laboratories Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical products which include generic drugs and their intermediates. The Company also undertakes contract research activities for other pharmaceutical companies.

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN)

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

[Week 12] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Opportunity Size Outweigh Growth Concerns

Market sentiment remains optimistic with the NIFTY Index as a trend check level. Concerns about Paytm's growth. Other names discussed: Eicher...

Pranav Bhavsar

Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN): Q2 EBITDA and PAT Triples on Operational Efficiencies

In Q2FY24, Concord’s EBITDA and PAT grew to INR1,160M and INR810M from INR370M and INR220M, respectively in Q2FY23. With new capacities coming on...

Tina Banerjee

Blue Jet Healthcare IPO: Niche Offering and Long-Standing Customer Relationship Are Key Positives

Blue Jet Healthcare is looking to raise $100M from its upcoming India IPO. The IPO consists of OFS of 24.3M shares by two of the promoters. The...

Tina Banerjee

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

[Week 12] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Opportunity Size Outweigh Growth Concerns

​Market sentiment remains optimistic with the NIFTY Index as a trend check level. Concerns about Paytm's growth. Other names discussed: Eicher...

Pranav Bhavsar

Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN): Q2 EBITDA and PAT Triples on Operational Efficiencies

In Q2FY24, Concord’s EBITDA and PAT grew to INR1,160M and INR810M from INR370M and INR220M, respectively in Q2FY23. With new capacities coming on...

Tina Banerjee

Blue Jet Healthcare IPO: Niche Offering and Long-Standing Customer Relationship Are Key Positives

Blue Jet Healthcare is looking to raise $100M from its upcoming India IPO. The IPO consists of OFS of 24.3M shares by two of the promoters. The...

Tina Banerjee

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Market sentiment remains optimistic with the NIFTY Index as a trend check level. Concerns about Paytm's growth. Other names discussed: Eicher...