Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Since my last insight, we have observed a couple of important changes to candidate rankings and that has resulted in some changes to our index change expectations.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.
Since my last insight, we have observed a couple of important changes to candidate rankings and that has resulted in some changes to our index change expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Multiple Changes Possible for NIFTY 50; Some New Trade Ideas

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/concord-biotech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36267:1" rel="noopener">Concord Biotech Ltd (CONCORDB IN)</a> reported 19% revenue growth in FY24. EBITDA and PAT grew at a faster pace of 26% and 28%, YoY, respectively.  </li>
<li>With focus on deeper market penetration, acquiring new customers, and introducing new products in niche categories, Concord is well-positioned for 25% revenue CAGR in 3–5 years.</li>
<li>Despite a huge run-up from the IPO price, Concord shares are trading at forward P/E of 38.9x, which is lower than peers.</li>
</ul>



Concord Biotech Ltd (CONCORDB IN) reported 19% revenue growth in FY24. EBITDA and PAT grew at a faster pace of 26% and 28%, YoY, respectively.  
With focus on deeper market penetration, acquiring new customers, and introducing new products in niche categories, Concord is well-positioned for 25% revenue CAGR in 3–5 years.
Despite a huge run-up from the IPO price, Concord shares are trading at forward P/E of 38.9x, which is lower than peers.


Concord Biotech Ltd (CONCORDB IN): Accelerated Growth Ahead; Recent Pullback Comforted Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/divi-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4871:1" rel="noopener">Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN)</a> reported steady performance in Q4FY24, marked by YoY and sequential growth in revenue and improvement in profitability. Double-digit growth is expected to continue.</li>
<li>Custom Synthesis business grew 47% YoY and 38% QoQ to INR12B in Q4FY24, driven by increasing value realization from existing commercial projects and addition of new projects to the portfolio.</li>
<li>In Custom Synthesis, Divi’s Lab is in the process of entering into a long-term supply agreement with an MNC customer and is planning for capacity addition at its manufacturing facility.</li>
</ul>



Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN) reported steady performance in Q4FY24, marked by YoY and sequential growth in revenue and improvement in profitability. Double-digit growth is expected to continue.
Custom Synthesis business grew 47% YoY and 38% QoQ to INR12B in Q4FY24, driven by increasing value realization from existing commercial projects and addition of new projects to the portfolio.
In Custom Synthesis, Divi’s Lab is in the process of entering into a long-term supply agreement with an MNC customer and is planning for capacity addition at its manufacturing facility.


Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN): Custom Synthesis Business to Drive Future Growth

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/concord-biotech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36267:1" rel="noopener">Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN)</a> listed in India on 18th Aug 23 after raising US$188m. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown with Helix Investment selling its entire stake.</li>
<li>Concord Biotech (Concord) is an India-based biopharma firm, which develops and manufactures fermentation-based active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).</li>
<li>Coming up for six-month lockup expiry on 7th Feb 24 are the firm’s pre-IPO shareholders, along with a portion of its promoters’ stake.</li>
</ul>



Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN) listed in India on 18th Aug 23 after raising US$188m. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown with Helix Investment selling its entire stake.
Concord Biotech (Concord) is an India-based biopharma firm, which develops and manufactures fermentation-based active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).
Coming up for six-month lockup expiry on 7th Feb 24 are the firm’s pre-IPO shareholders, along with a portion of its promoters’ stake.


Concord Biotech's US$650m Lock-Up Expiry - Some Could Be Tempted to Book Multi-Bagger Gains

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a> should replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ltimindtree-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22778:1" rel="noopener">LTIMindtree (LTIM IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/divi-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4871:1" rel="noopener">Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> meet the free float market cap requirements but are not part of the F&amp;O segment.</li>
<li>Passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> trackers will need to trade at least 3.8 days of ADV and 9 days of delivery volume on the index changes.</li>
</ul>



Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) and Bharat Electronics (BHE IN) should replace LTIMindtree (LTIM IN) and Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in September.

Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) and Zomato (ZOMATO IN) meet the free float market cap requirements but are not part of the F&amp;O segment.
Passive NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) trackers will need to trade at least 3.8 days of ADV and 9 days of delivery volume on the index changes.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes in September; Adds Are Flying

India

Divi's Laboratories Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical products which include generic drugs and their intermediates. The Company also undertakes contract research activities for other pharmaceutical companies.

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Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Multiple Changes Possible for NIFTY 50; Some New Trade Ideas

There are at least four names eligible for NIFTY 50 addition in September 2024. However, the final count ADDs and DELs will be a discretionary...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Concord Biotech Ltd (CONCORDB IN): Accelerated Growth Ahead; Recent Pullback Comforted Valuation

Concord Biotech aims for 25% revenue CAGR in 3–5 years with focus on market penetration, acquiring new customers, and introducing new products....

Tina Banerjee