Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dlf-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11106:1" rel="noopener">DLF (DLFU IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/godrej-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3971:1" rel="noopener">Godrej Properties (GPL IN)</a> price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/godrej-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3971:1" rel="noopener">Godrej Properties (GPL IN)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dlf-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11106:1" rel="noopener">DLF (DLFU IN)</a> targets an 8% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The DLF (DLFU IN) vs. Godrej Properties (GPL IN) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlight: Going long Godrej Properties (GPL IN) and short DLF (DLFU IN) targets an 8% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Godrej Properties (GPL IN) Vs DLF (DLFU IN): Divergence in India Property Pair Reaches Key Threshold

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> faces a $2.81 billion demand in a gas dispute, plans to challenge Delhi High Court ruling in Supreme Court.</li>
<li>Haldiram's stake sale faces delays as market downturn prompts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone (BX US)</a> to exit, citing high valuations; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/temasek-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28816:1" rel="noopener">Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd (TMSK SP)</a> interest continues.</li>
<li>SEBI’s new open interest rules may impact BSE’s trading volumes, prompting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldman-sachs-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:785:1" rel="noopener">Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)</a> to cut its target price to Rs. 4,880.</li>
</ul>



Reliance Industries (RIL IN) faces a $2.81 billion demand in a gas dispute, plans to challenge Delhi High Court ruling in Supreme Court.
Haldiram's stake sale faces delays as market downturn prompts Blackstone (BX US) to exit, citing high valuations; Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd (TMSK SP) interest continues.
SEBI’s new open interest rules may impact BSE’s trading volumes, prompting Goldman Sachs Group (GS US) to cut its target price to Rs. 4,880.


#113 India Insight: Reliance Fights $2.81B Demand, Haldiram’s Deal Stalls, SEBI Hits BSE Volumes.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Real Estate exposure among active Emerging Market funds is rebounding after a decade-long bear market from 2012-2022.</li>
<li>Average weights are at their highest levels in 10 years. Despite this recovery, Real Estate remains a "non-essential" sector, with 23% of funds avoiding exposure entirely.</li>
<li>Country-Level trends highlight a rotation from China into the U.A.E, driven by record-high fund ownership in names like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emaar-properties-pjsc-004c637d-b17a-4c9b-849b-0c89d3b1f6b4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25955:1" rel="noopener">Emaar Properties Pjsc (EMAAR UH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aldar-properties-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27654:1" rel="noopener">Aldar Properties PJSC (ALDAR UH)</a>
</li>
</ul>


Real Estate exposure among active Emerging Market funds is rebounding after a decade-long bear market from 2012-2022.
Average weights are at their highest levels in 10 years. Despite this recovery, Real Estate remains a "non-essential" sector, with 23% of funds avoiding exposure entirely.
Country-Level trends highlight a rotation from China into the U.A.E, driven by record-high fund ownership in names like Emaar Properties Pjsc (EMAAR UH) and Aldar Properties PJSC (ALDAR UH)



Real Estate:  Recovery Among Active GEM Funds

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN)</a> plans India’s largest IPO, valued at Rs. 27,870 crore.</li>
<li>Historical data shows large IPOs often underperform, raising concerns about valuation and market timing.</li>
<li>Caution is essential; analyzing fundamentals over hype is crucial for IPO investments.</li>
</ul>



Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN) plans India’s largest IPO, valued at Rs. 27,870 crore.
Historical data shows large IPOs often underperform, raising concerns about valuation and market timing.
Caution is essential; analyzing fundamentals over hype is crucial for IPO investments.


Thematic Report : How India’s Biggest IPOs Have Performed?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023</li>
<li>As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves </li>
<li>TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023
As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves 
TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts


Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

India

DLF Limited is an Indian commercial real estate development company that develops residential, commercial, and retail properties, including luxury residential complexes, office spaces, and shopping malls. The company operates across various locations in India, with a significant presence in Gurugram, Delhi, Hyderabad, Noida, and Chennai. DLF Limited was founded by Chaudhary Raghvendra Singh in 1946 and is headquartered in Gurugram, Haryana, India.

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DLF (DLFU IN)

Godrej Properties (GPL IN) Vs DLF (DLFU IN): Divergence in India Property Pair Reaches Key Threshold

8% target return as leading Indian property developers diverge, creating a fresh pair trade opportunity. Essential for quantitative traders seeking...

Gaudenz Schneider

#113 India Insight: Reliance Fights $2.81B Demand, Haldiram’s Deal Stalls, SEBI Hits BSE Volumes.

Reliance Industries challenges $2.81 billion gas dispute ruling, Haldiram's stake sale delayed as Blackstone exits, SEBI rules impact BSE trading...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Real Estate: Recovery Among Active GEM Funds

Real Estate exposure among active Emerging Market funds is rebounding after a decade-long bear market from 2012-2022, with the U.A.E leading the...

Steven Holden

Thematic Report : How India’s Biggest IPOs Have Performed?

Hyundai Motor India plans India's largest IPO valued at Rs. 27,870 crore, but historical data suggests caution is needed as large IPOs often...

Nimish Maheshwari

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE (local currency) Also Below Resistance Though Testing Now; $EEM breakout...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Godrej Properties (GPL IN) Vs DLF (DLFU IN): Divergence in India Property Pair Reaches Key Threshold

8% target return as leading Indian property developers diverge, creating a fresh pair trade opportunity. Essential for quantitative traders seeking...

Gaudenz Schneider

#113 India Insight: Reliance Fights $2.81B Demand, Haldiram’s Deal Stalls, SEBI Hits BSE Volumes.

​Reliance Industries challenges $2.81 billion gas dispute ruling, Haldiram's stake sale delayed as Blackstone exits, SEBI rules impact BSE trading...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Real Estate: Recovery Among Active GEM Funds

Real Estate exposure among active Emerging Market funds is rebounding after a decade-long bear market from 2012-2022, with the U.A.E leading the...

Steven Holden

Thematic Report : How India’s Biggest IPOs Have Performed?

​Hyundai Motor India plans India's largest IPO valued at Rs. 27,870 crore, but historical data suggests caution is needed as large IPOs often...

Nimish Maheshwari

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE (local currency) Also Below Resistance Though Testing Now; $EEM breakout...

Vermilion Research

Reliance Industries challenges $2.81 billion gas dispute ruling, Haldiram's stake sale delayed as Blackstone exits, SEBI rules impact BSE trading...

Hyundai Motor India plans India's largest IPO valued at Rs. 27,870 crore, but historical data suggests caution is needed as large IPOs often...