Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...</li>
<li>SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.</li>
<li>5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.</li>
</ul>


Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...
SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.
5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.


Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>After Dollar General’s (DG) disastrous earnings couple of weeks ago, I was quite concerned about their prospects in the near-term.</li><li>However, a week later after digesting through Dollar Tree (DLTR) as well as DG management’s explanation in the Goldman Sachs Retailing Conference, I have updated some of my thoughts about DG…in the positive direction.</li><li>Nonetheless, I have decided to abide by my decision not to inject more capital to DG, but to increase my notional exposure to DG via long-dated call options. </li></ul>

After Dollar General’s (DG) disastrous earnings couple of weeks ago, I was quite concerned about their prospects in the near-term.However, a week later after digesting through Dollar Tree (DLTR) as well as DG management’s explanation in the Goldman Sachs Retailing Conference, I have updated some of my thoughts about DG…in the positive direction.Nonetheless, I have decided to abide by my decision not to inject more capital to DG, but to increase my notional exposure to DG via long-dated call options. 

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Dollar General's shares have plummeted after the company slashed its sales and profit forecasts for the full year, highlighting the financial struggles of its lower-income customers.</li><li>The retailer, which primarily serves rural areas, now expects fiscal 2024 same-store sales growth of 1.0% to 1.6%, down from its previous forecast of 2% to 2.7%.</li><li>Earnings per share are projected to be between $5.50 and $6.20, significantly lower than the prior estimate of $6.80 to $7.55.</li></ul>

Dollar General's shares have plummeted after the company slashed its sales and profit forecasts for the full year, highlighting the financial struggles of its lower-income customers.The retailer, which primarily serves rural areas, now expects fiscal 2024 same-store sales growth of 1.0% to 1.6%, down from its previous forecast of 2% to 2.7%.Earnings per share are projected to be between $5.50 and $6.20, significantly lower than the prior estimate of $6.80 to $7.55.

Is Dollar General in Trouble? New Outlook, 'Financially Constrained' Customers Spark Major Concerns!

<ul><li>I first wrote my Deep Dive on Dollar General back in August 2023.</li><li>While I wasn't initially excited about owning a piece of the company despite the stock being down 40% from peak then, I changed my mind when the stock went down another ~25% following 2Q'23 earnings.</li><li>After today's dismal earnings, the stock went down almost another 30% since 2Q'23 earnings. </li></ul>

I first wrote my Deep Dive on Dollar General back in August 2023.While I wasn't initially excited about owning a piece of the company despite the stock being down 40% from peak then, I changed my mind when the stock went down another ~25% following 2Q'23 earnings.After today's dismal earnings, the stock went down almost another 30% since 2Q'23 earnings. 

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

<ul><li>Author may buy or sell securities related to discussed issuer without informing readers</li><li>Information presented is believed to be accurate but not guaranteed in terms of accuracy or completeness</li><li>Author's views are opinion-based and subject to change at any time; readers advised to do their own research and not base investment decisions on the note</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Author may buy or sell securities related to discussed issuer without informing readersInformation presented is believed to be accurate but not guaranteed in terms of accuracy or completenessAuthor's views are opinion-based and subject to change at any time; readers advised to do their own research and not base investment decisions on the noteThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Dollar General Corp (DG) - Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024

United States

Dollar General Corporation operates a chain of discount retail stores located primarily in the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern United States. The Company offer a broad selection of merchandise, including consumable products such as food, paper and cleaning products, health, beauty, pet supplies, and non-consumables such as seasonal merchandise.

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Dollar General (DG US)

Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Overweight; Still Intermediate-Term Bearish/Cautious, But use 5100-5120 on $SPX as a stop loss and a level to...

Vermilion Research

Some More Thoughts on Dollar General

After Dollar General’s (DG) disastrous earnings couple of weeks ago, I was quite concerned about their prospects in the near-term.

MBI Deep Dives

Is Dollar General in Trouble? New Outlook, 'Financially Constrained' Customers Spark Major Concerns!

Dollar General's shares have plummeted after the company slashed its sales and profit forecasts for the full year, highlighting the financial...

Baptista Research

Dollar General 2Q'24 Update

While I wasn't initially excited about owning a piece of the company despite the stock being down 40% from peak then, I changed my mind when the...

MBI Deep Dives

Dollar General Corp (DG) - Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024

Author's views are opinion-based and subject to change at any time; readers advised to do their own research and not base investment decisions on...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

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