Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A recent report shows apparent gains by Temu against US "dollar" store chains</li>
<li>In this insight we introduce the "dollar" store concept and share our experiences</li>
<li>We conclude that Temu &amp; SHEIN don't likely view some categories as priorities</li>
</ul>


A recent report shows apparent gains by Temu against US "dollar" store chains
In this insight we introduce the "dollar" store concept and share our experiences
We conclude that Temu &amp; SHEIN don't likely view some categories as priorities


Temu Versus Dollar Tree: More Online & Offline Adventures in Pursuit of Ultra-Cheap Stuff

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.</li>
<li>We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).</li>
<li>Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.</li>
</ul>


A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.
We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).
Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.


Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> AGM was a vote of confidence in the Board’s strategy of pursuing two parallel paths to generate value.  </li>
<li>The Board’s management initiatives are steadily being implemented, but have yet to deliver shareholder value. Since they were announced, the share price has modestly outperformed the Nikkei 225.</li>
<li>7&amp;I and Couche Tard signed an NDA but a viable divestiture plan to gain US regulatory approval remains in doubt, particularly as PE has emerged as the likely bidder. </li>
</ul>


The Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) AGM was a vote of confidence in the Board’s strategy of pursuing two parallel paths to generate value.  
The Board’s management initiatives are steadily being implemented, but have yet to deliver shareholder value. Since they were announced, the share price has modestly outperformed the Nikkei 225.
7&amp;I and Couche Tard signed an NDA but a viable divestiture plan to gain US regulatory approval remains in doubt, particularly as PE has emerged as the likely bidder. 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Wait and Hope

<ul>
<li>Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...</li>
<li>SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.</li>
<li>5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.</li>
</ul>


Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...
SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.
5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.


Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>During Hong Kong's market correction during November, we noticed that the Put/Call spread stayed below 1 and the skew moved to its lowest level in 3 years both bullish signals.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> share price had a golden cross breakout on December 3, as the casual dining sector in China shows growth going into next year.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a> had a breakout from a falling wedge pattern relative to MXEF.  The gap up in the share price and momentum signals confirms the uptrend.
</li>
</ul>


During Hong Kong's market correction during November, we noticed that the Put/Call spread stayed below 1 and the skew moved to its lowest level in 3 years both bullish signals.

Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) share price had a golden cross breakout on December 3, as the casual dining sector in China shows growth going into next year.


MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) had a breakout from a falling wedge pattern relative to MXEF.  The gap up in the share price and momentum signals confirms the uptrend.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (DECEMBER 5)

United States

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates a discount variety store chain in the United States. The Company sells an assortment of everyday general merchandise at the $1.00 price point.

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Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)

Temu Versus Dollar Tree: More Online & Offline Adventures in Pursuit of Ultra-Cheap Stuff

In this insight, we introduce readers to the US "dollar" store concept, then compare our experiences shopping for cheap stuff at Dollar Tree and...

Tracking Traffic

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary $XLY to Overweight; 5700-5785 $SPX Gap Support Holding as we expected/discussed last week. 4.7-4.8% on 10y...

Vermilion Research

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Wait and Hope

The AGM was a vote of confidence in the Board's plan. However, the effectiveness of the management initiatives remains uncertain, and a Couche-Tard...

Arun George

Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Overweight; Still Intermediate-Term Bearish/Cautious, But use 5100-5120 on $SPX as a stop loss and a level to...

Vermilion Research

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (DECEMBER 5)

Hong Kong show decreased volatility and increased mainland buying continue since the US election. YUM China share price broke out (golden...

David Mudd

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