Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> upcoming deletion in April 2023 could cause a couple of intra-review replacements.</li>
<li>Separately, there could be one more change in the ASX 200 index in the June 2023 review.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.

OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) upcoming deletion in April 2023 could cause a couple of intra-review replacements.
Separately, there could be one more change in the ASX 200 index in the June 2023 review.


Quiddity Leaderboard-​​​​​​​​​​​ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 3rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 3rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 3rd): Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Earlier this week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> rejected Dye &amp; Durham's revised proposal to factor in any redress payments from the UK's FCA in regards to the Woodford Fund.</li>
<li>FCA has now assessed an appropriate penalty of £50mn in addition to the previously announced restitution payment of £306.1mn.</li>
<li>The FCA is all but telegraphing it will default LFSL unless Link steps in. Link says it has made no such commitment. D&amp;D should walk.</li>
</ul>


Earlier this week, Link Administration (LNK AU) rejected Dye &amp; Durham's revised proposal to factor in any redress payments from the UK's FCA in regards to the Woodford Fund.
FCA has now assessed an appropriate penalty of £50mn in addition to the previously announced restitution payment of £306.1mn.
The FCA is all but telegraphing it will default LFSL unless Link steps in. Link says it has made no such commitment. D&amp;D should walk.


But Wait ... Even More Penalties In The Link Admin/D&D Situation

<ul>
<li>After 23 months of negotiations, various bids from various parties, culminating in a protracted on-again, off-again, negotiation with Dye &amp; Durham, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> has called it a day.</li>
<li>D&amp;D arguably did the right thing and tabled a revised proposal to account for any enforcement process after the UK's FCA raised redress payments. Link has rejected the revised terms. </li>
<li>Link will now pursue an in-specie distribution of a minimum of 80% of Link’s shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


After 23 months of negotiations, various bids from various parties, culminating in a protracted on-again, off-again, negotiation with Dye &amp; Durham, Link Administration (LNK AU) has called it a day.
D&amp;D arguably did the right thing and tabled a revised proposal to account for any enforcement process after the UK's FCA raised redress payments. Link has rejected the revised terms. 
Link will now pursue an in-specie distribution of a minimum of 80% of Link’s shareholding in PEXA Group (PXA AU).


That's It Then As Link Admin Rejects D&D's Revised Terms

<ul>
<li>The UK Financial Conduct Authority will approve Dye &amp; Durham's Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> provided it backstops restitution and/or redress payments that the FCA may levy on ... </li>
<li>... Link Fund Solutions Limited (LFSL) in relation to its management of the Woodford Fund. The amount? Up to a maximum ~A$523mn.</li>
<li>The FCA decision is not final. LFSL does not agree with its view. If D&amp;D does not accept this commitment then a condition under the Scheme may not be satisfied.</li>
</ul>


The UK Financial Conduct Authority will approve Dye &amp; Durham's Offer for Link Administration (LNK AU) provided it backstops restitution and/or redress payments that the FCA may levy on ... 
... Link Fund Solutions Limited (LFSL) in relation to its management of the Woodford Fund. The amount? Up to a maximum ~A$523mn.
The FCA decision is not final. LFSL does not agree with its view. If D&amp;D does not accept this commitment then a condition under the Scheme may not be satisfied.


Link Admin/D&D Deal Appears Toast As The Woodford Shoe Drops

Australia

Domain Holdings Australia Limited offers multi-platform property solutions. The Company operates an online portal that delivers property marketing solutions for residential, new development, and commercial properties. Domain Holdings Australia serves buyers, sellers, renters, and investors in Australia.

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Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard-ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) or Chorus Ltd (CNU NZ) could replace OZL in ASX 100 and Bellevue Gold (BGL AU) or Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU)...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 3rd): Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

But Wait ... Even More Penalties In The Link Admin/D&D Situation

The FCA is playing hardball. Why would D&D take on this ballooning burden and subsume such an overhang? All the negative news appears to be baked...

David Blennerhassett

That's It Then As Link Admin Rejects D&D's Revised Terms

D&D revised terms appeared fair: a deferred consideration structure wherein LNK shareholders get any residual payment after £306mn had been set...

David Blennerhassett

Link Admin/D&D Deal Appears Toast As The Woodford Shoe Drops

Not the news investors were expecting with the finish line in sight. On a standalone basis - Link Administration is a buy here.

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard-​​​​​​​​​​​ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) or Chorus Ltd (CNU NZ) could replace OZL in ASX 100 and Bellevue Gold (BGL AU) or Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU)...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 3rd): Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

But Wait ... Even More Penalties In The Link Admin/D&D Situation

The FCA is playing hardball. Why would D&D take on this ballooning burden and subsume such an overhang? All the negative news appears to be baked...

David Blennerhassett

That's It Then As Link Admin Rejects D&D's Revised Terms

D&D revised terms appeared fair: a deferred consideration structure wherein LNK shareholders get any residual payment after £306mn had been set...

David Blennerhassett

Link Admin/D&D Deal Appears Toast As The Woodford Shoe Drops

Not the news investors were expecting with the finish line in sight. On a standalone basis - Link Administration is a buy here.

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard-ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes