Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Despite the lockdown and ceaseless increase in the infection cases in Indonesia, the mobility rate in the workplace has improved by 50% that helped to narrow Q3 2020 loss apart from the cost savings initiative. </p>
<p>Vaccine discovery has helped Bluebird's share price ascension but the real push will come from the vaccination in Indonesia that will lead to a looser government policy lockdown and it is bound to create a more permanent feeling that it is business as usual (pre-COVID) therefore may even lead to a re-opening of the borders. </p>
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<p>At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-bird-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1" rel="noopener">Blue Bird (BIRD IJ)</a> is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite a 57% rally. We should expect to see further multiple expansion in Blue Bird as mass vaccination is taking place and people have more confidence in the economic recovery in Indonesia. </p>
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<p>source: Capital IQ</p>
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Despite the lockdown and ceaseless increase in the infection cases in Indonesia, the mobility rate in the workplace has improved by 50% that helped to narrow Q3 2020 loss apart from the cost savings initiative. 
Vaccine discovery has helped Bluebird's share price ascension but the real push will come from the vaccination in Indonesia that will lead to a looser government policy lockdown and it is bound to create a more permanent feeling that it is business as usual (pre-COVID) therefore may even lead to a re-opening of the borders. 

At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite a 57% rally. We should expect to see further multiple expansion in Blue Bird as mass vaccination is taking place and people have more confidence in the economic recovery in Indonesia. 



source: Capital IQ


<p>With most of its revenues are generated from the greater Jakarta area, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-bird-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1" rel="noopener">Blue Bird (BIRD IJ)</a> is positively correlated to the COVID-19 spread and the regional government policies on PSBB (lockdown). </p>
<p>In this insight, a discussion on empirical data that shows a correlation between traffic and share price and while the PSBB will hurt share price in the short run, it will not be for a long term and once it is reopened again, traffic will come back and workers back-to-office (WFH to WFO) have benefited Bluebird in the past few months. Bluebird is currently trading at 0.5x PBR (a 70% discount to the peers) and 5x EV/EBITDA (a 40% discount to the peers). <strong>Accumulate on weakness</strong>. </p>

With most of its revenues are generated from the greater Jakarta area, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is positively correlated to the COVID-19 spread and the regional government policies on PSBB (lockdown). 
In this insight, a discussion on empirical data that shows a correlation between traffic and share price and while the PSBB will hurt share price in the short run, it will not be for a long term and once it is reopened again, traffic will come back and workers back-to-office (WFH to WFO) have benefited Bluebird in the past few months. Bluebird is currently trading at 0.5x PBR (a 70% discount to the peers) and 5x EV/EBITDA (a 40% discount to the peers). Accumulate on weakness. 

Bluebird (BIRD): Correlated with PSBB, Beneficiary of WFH to WFO Switch

South Korea

Dongyang Express Corp. provides passenger transportation services between major cities of South Korea. The Company operates thirty four express bus service routes.

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Dongyang Express (084670 KS)

BlueBird (BIRD): Flying Higher

At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite...

Henry Soediarko

Bluebird (BIRD): Correlated with PSBB, Beneficiary of WFH to WFO Switch

With most of its revenues are generated from the greater Jakarta area, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is positively correlated t

Henry Soediarko

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