Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pre-ipo-esg-analysis-didi-s-exemplary-esg-achievements-eclipsed-by-regulatory-risks-and-uncertainty" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53687" rel="noopener">Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty</a>, I juxtaposed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi's (DIDI US)</a> relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty, I juxtaposed DiDi's (DIDI US) relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

eSports offer intriguing investment possibilities to investors given very large projected TAMs, high growth rates and links to a variety of other fast growing industries including games, streaming, animation, tech hardware and social media. This makes eSports important to understand and below we examine key themes that investors should be aware of, before delving into a full primer on the space, companies with exposure to eSports, Asian eSports franchises and key eSports games to be aware of.

eSports offer intriguing investment possibilities to investors given very large projected TAMs, high growth rates and links to a variety of other fast growing industries including games, streaming, animation, tech hardware and social media. This makes eSports important to understand and below we examine key themes that investors should be aware of, before delving into a full primer on the space, companies with exposure to eSports, Asian eSports franchises and key eSports games to be aware of.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<div class="content-highlight"><h2>Niu Soars as Market Finally Appreciating EV Micromobility Amidst COVID; Momo Loses Ground to Competitors</h2></div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/650/original/01%20Portfolio%20-%20June%2030.png?1593530582" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143650"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Capital IQ, Zero One</div>The months of May and June saw a broad-level recovery in asset prices as both the NASDAQ index and MSCI China index rose by ~12% since our last update on May 5 (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/our-tech-portfolio-update-maintain-overweight-on-digital-structural-trends-are-accelerating" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39068" rel="noopener">Our Tech Portfolio Update: Maintain Overweight on Digital; Structural Trends Are Accelerating</a>).Our China tech portfolio significantly outperformed the broader market as COVID winners reaped their rewards. We provide our updated views on each of our holdings below.

Niu Soars as Market Finally Appreciating EV Micromobility Amidst COVID; Momo Loses Ground to CompetitorsSource: Capital IQ, Zero OneThe months of May and June saw a broad-level recovery in asset prices as both the NASDAQ index and MSCI China index rose by ~12% since our last update on May 5 (Our Tech Portfolio Update: Maintain Overweight on Digital; Structural Trends Are Accelerating).Our China tech portfolio significantly outperformed the broader market as COVID winners reaped their rewards. We provide our updated views on each of our holdings below.

Our Tech Portfolio Update: COVID Winners Reaping Rewards, Niu Soars 80%+

"Social" has been a third-wheel ESG pillar for a long time. Not that it matters any less, and there is plenty of evidence that strong Social-pillar ESG performance can do a lot of  good for a stock price. Rather, it's that the Social pillar stuff is more ethereal, harder to wrap one's head around. And, let's face it, the Social ESG pillar is a little more rosewater than crude oil.It is amazing how a global pandemic changes things. Whether it is ESG's social or Corporate Social Responsibility's (CSR) "social," socially-responsibility – as well as social irresponsibility or inaction – by corporations are front-and-center. In prior reports I assessed corporate coronavirus responses from an ESG perspective. In doing so, I something became increasingly (and painfully) obvious:Company responses are very diverse (as they should be), making comparative analysis difficult.For society, comparisons aren't necessarily relevant. A patient receiving better medical care due to a generous contribution from Company A probably doesn't care that Company B – same sector but the other side of the world – gave a larger contribution to its local hospital. For investors, however, comparisons kind of matter. After all, what's the value of a stand-alone P/E multiple?Rather than go insane trying to standardise and normalise everything – e.g., the economic value of donated masks or cost of retrofitting manufacturing lines to produce ventilators – I decided to look at coronavirus-related corporate philanthropy as a comparative metric. It is universal, quantifiable, and decidedly much easier to measure and value than, say, vats of hand sanitiser.This takes a data-driven look at coronavirus-related corporate social responsibility and specifically  philanthropy by listed companies in Asia Pacific countries. APAC first because Asian companies are doing a lot of giving, and nearly all of that inspirational cross-border humanitarian aid – including to the U.S., despite a certain orange-haired xenophobe in a white house.

"Social" has been a third-wheel ESG pillar for a long time. Not that it matters any less, and there is plenty of evidence that strong Social-pillar ESG performance can do a lot of  good for a stock price. Rather, it's that the Social pillar stuff is more ethereal, harder to wrap one's head around. And, let's face it, the Social ESG pillar is a little more rosewater than crude oil.It is amazing how a global pandemic changes things. Whether it is ESG's social or Corporate Social Responsibility's (CSR) "social," socially-responsibility – as well as social irresponsibility or inaction – by corporations are front-and-center. In prior reports I assessed corporate coronavirus responses from an ESG perspective. In doing so, I something became increasingly (and painfully) obvious:Company responses are very diverse (as they should be), making comparative analysis difficult.For society, comparisons aren't necessarily relevant. A patient receiving better medical care due to a generous contribution from Company A probably doesn't care that Company B – same sector but the other side of the world – gave a larger contribution to its local hospital. For investors, however, comparisons kind of matter. After all, what's the value of a stand-alone P/E multiple?Rather than go insane trying to standardise and normalise everything – e.g., the economic value of donated masks or cost of retrofitting manufacturing lines to produce ventilators – I decided to look at coronavirus-related corporate philanthropy as a comparative metric. It is universal, quantifiable, and decidedly much easier to measure and value than, say, vats of hand sanitiser.This takes a data-driven look at coronavirus-related corporate social responsibility and specifically  philanthropy by listed companies in Asia Pacific countries. APAC first because Asian companies are doing a lot of giving, and nearly all of that inspirational cross-border humanitarian aid – including to the U.S., despite a certain orange-haired xenophobe in a white house.

COVID-19 and ESG: Tencent, Alibaba Lead in Coronavirus Aid for Asia Pacific Region

We maintain our overweight on Hong Kong and China Tech as the dual COVID tailwinds of permanently shifting consumer behaviors and rapid enterprise digitization accelerate structural trends. In particular, we see five structural changes within China Tech that will allow the sector to continue outperforming the broader market in a post-COVID world, namely:<ul>
<li>FMCG E-Commerce to Drive Online Sales Past 50% of Total Retail Sales</li>
<li>Online Education Going Mainstream as Students Adapt &amp; Schools Future-Proof</li>
<li>Enterprises Rush to Digitize and Transition Workflows Online</li>
<li>Live Streaming Increasingly Valued as a Monetization Channel for Brands</li>
<li>e-Sports Industry Going Mainstream as Tencent Consolidates Major Players</li>
</ul>

We maintain our overweight on Hong Kong and China Tech as the dual COVID tailwinds of permanently shifting consumer behaviors and rapid enterprise digitization accelerate structural trends. In particular, we see five structural changes within China Tech that will allow the sector to continue outperforming the broader market in a post-COVID world, namely:
FMCG E-Commerce to Drive Online Sales Past 50% of Total Retail Sales
Online Education Going Mainstream as Students Adapt &amp; Schools Future-Proof
Enterprises Rush to Digitize and Transition Workflows Online
Live Streaming Increasingly Valued as a Monetization Channel for Brands
e-Sports Industry Going Mainstream as Tencent Consolidates Major Players


Accelerating Structural Trends to Drive Continued Outperformance in China Tech

United States

DouYu International Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on development of live game streaming. DouYu International Holdings serves customers in China.

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Douyu International Holdings (DOYU US)

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Last week, I wrote about DiDi's regulatory risk. This week, it's worse. Hence the downgrade. But this is mostly an analysis of how regulatory...

Kyle Rudden

ESports – Entering the Third Innings

In this Smartkarma Original we examine the state of eSports in Asia, examining differences with traditional sports and the games, teams and...

Mio Kato

Our Tech Portfolio Update: COVID Winners Reaping Rewards, Niu Soars 80%+

Niu Soars as Market Finally Appreciating EV Micromobility Amidst COVID; Momo Loses Ground to CompetitorsThe months of May and June saw a...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

COVID-19 and ESG: Tencent, Alibaba Lead in Coronavirus Aid for Asia Pacific Region

"Social" has been a third-wheel ESG pillar for a long time. Not that it matters any less, and there is plenty of evidence that strong Social-pillar...

Kyle Rudden

Accelerating Structural Trends to Drive Continued Outperformance in China Tech

We maintain our overweight on Hong Kong and China Tech as the dual COVID tailwinds of permanently shifting consumer behaviors and rapid enterprise...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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