Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The epicenter of the Asian ETF selloff last week was Japan, recording an outflow of nearly $100B from equity funds taking the net flows back to breakeven for the YTD.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seazen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14882:1" rel="noopener">Seazen (Formerly Future Land) (1030 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> had positive announcements while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> announced earnings.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> shares are under pressure as the telco sector goes through a price war in cloud services and investors take profits from high dividend names.
</li>
</ul>


The epicenter of the Asian ETF selloff last week was Japan, recording an outflow of nearly $100B from equity funds taking the net flows back to breakeven for the YTD.

Seazen (Formerly Future Land) (1030 HK) and Swire Properties (1972 HK) had positive announcements while New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) and Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) announced earnings.


China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) shares are under pressure as the telco sector goes through a price war in cloud services and investors take profits from high dividend names.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 10)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>What is new? DPC Dash announced a positive profit alert for 1H24. For 1H24, the company is now expecting that:1) sales to increase by 45%+ YoY to RMB 2.0bn</li><li>2) net profit to be at RMB 10.0mn+ (vs RMB 8.8mn in 1H23), 3) adj. net profit to be at RMB 48mn+ (vs RMB 17.4mn losses in 1H23).</li><li>Also, the company has opened 146 net new stores (12/ 134 in mature/ emerging markets) and total number has reached 914, representing 36% YoY growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

What is new? DPC Dash announced a positive profit alert for 1H24. For 1H24, the company is now expecting that:1) sales to increase by 45%+ YoY to RMB 2.0bn2) net profit to be at RMB 10.0mn+ (vs RMB 8.8mn in 1H23), 3) adj. net profit to be at RMB 48mn+ (vs RMB 17.4mn losses in 1H23).Also, the company has opened 146 net new stores (12/ 134 in mature/ emerging markets) and total number has reached 914, representing 36% YoY growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

DPC Dash (1405 HK) - Outlook Stays Healthy After Positive Profit Alert

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>Company issued 1H24 profit alert after market yesterday which significantly beat even the high-end sell-side expectations. </li>
<li>Impressive SSSG and store-level unit economics imply sizable potential for operating leverage and earnings growth in the mid to long term.</li>
<li>The profit alert, along with 2Q operating data released earlier, reinforced our confidence in earnings estimates of RMB130 million/RMB300 million for FY24/25 respectively. </li>
</ul>


Company issued 1H24 profit alert after market yesterday which significantly beat even the high-end sell-side expectations. 
Impressive SSSG and store-level unit economics imply sizable potential for operating leverage and earnings growth in the mid to long term.
The profit alert, along with 2Q operating data released earlier, reinforced our confidence in earnings estimates of RMB130 million/RMB300 million for FY24/25 respectively. 


DPC Dash (1405.HK): 1H24 Profit Alert Validating Investment Case

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China State Construction International and Sinopec Engineering have short term reversal patterns indicating profit taking from recent advances.</li>
<li>China Resources Cement reverses downtrend with volume indicating some near term gains after reporting that 1st half profit was under pressure.</li>
<li>Yum China continues to show downward pressure given the increasing competition in the retail food segment, while Nongfu Spring collapses on news about the safety of its products.</li>
</ul>


China State Construction International and Sinopec Engineering have short term reversal patterns indicating profit taking from recent advances.
China Resources Cement reverses downtrend with volume indicating some near term gains after reporting that 1st half profit was under pressure.
Yum China continues to show downward pressure given the increasing competition in the retail food segment, while Nongfu Spring collapses on news about the safety of its products.


Technically Speaking: Breakouts & Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 17)

<ul>
<li>The company’ share bucked China catering sector’s down trend and rallied 30% in last few weeks.</li>
<li>Its 2Q operating data suggest that its store opening is well on track with healthy SSSG, underpinning strong margin expansion.</li>
<li>We believe that market still underestimates its growth and earnings potential which could beat consensus by wide margin. Interim results to be announced in August will be key catalyst.</li>
</ul>


The company’ share bucked China catering sector’s down trend and rallied 30% in last few weeks.
Its 2Q operating data suggest that its store opening is well on track with healthy SSSG, underpinning strong margin expansion.
We believe that market still underestimates its growth and earnings potential which could beat consensus by wide margin. Interim results to be announced in August will be key catalyst.


DPC Dash (1405 HK): Strong 2Q Data Pointing to Underappreciated Growth and Margin Potential

China

DPC Dash Ltd, also known as "Domino's Pizza China", operates franchise fast food restaurants. The Company through its chain stores, supplies pizza, drinks, and other related snacks. DPC Dash operates as the master franchisee in China Mainland, Hong Kong, and Macau.

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DPC Dash (1405 HK)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 10)

Japan had massive outflows in equity ETF's for the week. Property firms Seazen and Swire Properties had positive earnings news. New Oriental and...

David Mudd

DPC Dash (1405 HK) - Outlook Stays Healthy After Positive Profit Alert

What is new? DPC Dash announced a positive profit alert for 1H24. For 1H24, the company is now expecting that:1) sales to increase by 45%+ YoY to...

CMB International

DPC Dash (1405.HK): 1H24 Profit Alert Validating Investment Case

Company's profit alert significantly beats expectations, signaling potential for strong earnings growth in the mid to long term and validating our...

Eric Chen

Technically Speaking: Breakouts & Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 17)

Sinopec Engineering and China State Construction have entered short term corrections while CRC has broken its downtrend in the near term. Yum...

David Mudd

DPC Dash (1405 HK): Strong 2Q Data Pointing to Underappreciated Growth and Margin Potential

DPC Dash's strong 2Q operating data indicate healthy growth potential and margin expansion that are underestimated by market. Interim results in...

Eric Chen

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 10)

Japan had massive outflows in equity ETF's for the week. Property firms Seazen and Swire Properties had positive earnings news. New Oriental and...

David Mudd

DPC Dash (1405 HK) - Outlook Stays Healthy After Positive Profit Alert

What is new? DPC Dash announced a positive profit alert for 1H24. For 1H24, the company is now expecting that:1) sales to increase by 45%+ YoY to...

CMB International

DPC Dash (1405.HK): 1H24 Profit Alert Validating Investment Case

​Company's profit alert significantly beats expectations, signaling potential for strong earnings growth in the mid to long term and validating our...

Eric Chen

Technically Speaking: Breakouts & Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 17)

Sinopec Engineering and China State Construction have entered short term corrections while CRC has broken its downtrend in the near term. Yum...

David Mudd

DPC Dash (1405 HK): Strong 2Q Data Pointing to Underappreciated Growth and Margin Potential

DPC Dash's strong 2Q operating data indicate healthy growth potential and margin expansion that are underestimated by market. Interim results in...

Eric Chen

Company's profit alert significantly beats expectations, signaling potential for strong earnings growth in the mid to long term and validating our...