Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We had conversations with industry consultants and business executives from China’s catering sector to understand the impact of the country’s weak economy on consumer behavior and sector outlook for 2024.</li>
<li>We expect moderate pricing competition, continued rise of social media in generating online food orders and key industry players’ increased focus on smaller-size store formats.</li>
<li>While we are still cautious about the sector in general, we reiterate bullish view on DPC Dash, which we believe will outperform and has potential to double in two years. </li>
</ul>


We had conversations with industry consultants and business executives from China’s catering sector to understand the impact of the country’s weak economy on consumer behavior and sector outlook for 2024.
We expect moderate pricing competition, continued rise of social media in generating online food orders and key industry players’ increased focus on smaller-size store formats.
While we are still cautious about the sector in general, we reiterate bullish view on DPC Dash, which we believe will outperform and has potential to double in two years. 


China Catering: Channel Checks Reinforcing Our Bullish View on DPC Dash

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-dx-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5198:1" rel="noopener">Posco DX (022100 KS)</a> continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.</li>
<li>There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.</li>
<li>Creations continued in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US)</a> ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.</li>
</ul>



Posco DX (022100 KS) continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.
There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in CSI 300 Index ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.
Creations continued in the iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US) ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

<ul>
<li>We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial </a>(SBBI) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. </li>
<li>SBBI sells new-style tea drinks through its ChaPanda stores. According to F&amp;S, SBBI ranked third in China’s new-style tea shop market with a market share of 6.6%.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (SBBI) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. 
SBBI sells new-style tea drinks through its ChaPanda stores. According to F&amp;S, SBBI ranked third in China’s new-style tea shop market with a market share of 6.6%.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Sichuan Baicha Baidao Pre-IPO - The Positives - Riding on Franchise Store Expansion

<ul>
<li>We believe the company is well positioned in China's rapidly growing pizza market thanks to its strong brand and superior store economics. </li>
<li>Despite stock rally post 1H23 results, market still underestimates its earnings for both near and long term. We expect RMB250 million net profit for 2024 versus break-even by consensus.  </li>
<li>History suggests DPC Dash has recipe for attractive stock return driven by its highly visible growth that can shield it from macro situations, which is desperately needed by China investors.  </li>
</ul>


We believe the company is well positioned in China's rapidly growing pizza market thanks to its strong brand and superior store economics. 
Despite stock rally post 1H23 results, market still underestimates its earnings for both near and long term. We expect RMB250 million net profit for 2024 versus break-even by consensus.  
History suggests DPC Dash has recipe for attractive stock return driven by its highly visible growth that can shield it from macro situations, which is desperately needed by China investors.  


DPC Dash (1405 HK): Recipe for Multibagger

China

DPC Dash Ltd, also known as "Domino's Pizza China", operates franchise fast food restaurants. The Company through its chain stores, supplies pizza, drinks, and other related snacks. DPC Dash operates as the master franchisee in China Mainland, Hong Kong, and Macau.

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DPC Dash (1405 HK)

China Catering: Channel Checks Reinforcing Our Bullish View on DPC Dash

Our conversations within industry practitioners suggest 2024 will see moderate pricing pressure, continued rise of social media in order generation...

Eric Chen

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

There could be nearly 58 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Pre-IPO - The Positives - Riding on Franchise Store Expansion

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (SBBI) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. The company sells new style tea drinks through...

Sumeet Singh

DPC Dash (1405 HK): Recipe for Multibagger

We believe the company has the right recipe to become another multibagger in China's catering sector thanks to its strong brand and superior store...

Eric Chen

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