HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auntea-jenny-shanghai-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40891:1" rel="noopener">Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)</a>'s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. </li>
<li>At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny's multiple is close to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a>, but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. </li>
<li>Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.</li>
</ul>



Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)'s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. 
At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny's multiple is close to Mixue Group (2097 HK) and Guming Holdings (1364 HK), but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. 
Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.


Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

NSING Technologies / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The SFC acted against both IPO issuers and investors, suspending Cloudbreak and Baicha and making the largest asset restriction in SFC history.</li>
<li>The SFC suspects syndicates created false demand for IPO shares, and IPO proceeds may have returned to them through undisclosed financial-product agreements.</li>
<li>Based on the SFC press releases, we summarize red flags usable in ECM research and investment, three before listing and two after listing.</li>
</ul>


The SFC acted against both IPO issuers and investors, suspending Cloudbreak and Baicha and making the largest asset restriction in SFC history.
The SFC suspects syndicates created false demand for IPO shares, and IPO proceeds may have returned to them through undisclosed financial-product agreements.
Based on the SFC press releases, we summarize red flags usable in ECM research and investment, three before listing and two after listing.


Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial / Equity Bottom-Up

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK)

<ul>
  <li>Sichuan Baicha Baidao operates as the third-largest player in China's highly competitive freshly-made tea drink market, with a 6.8% market share in 2023, primarily through its asset-light 'ChaPanda' franchise model.</li>
  <li>The company's revenue is predominantly generated from selling goods and equipment to its vast network of over 8,600 franchisee-operated stores, creating a scalable business model centered on supply chain management and brand control.</li>
  <li>Future growth hinges on domestic store network expansion, particularly in lower-tier cities, international expansion into markets like Southeast Asia and Europe, and diversification into the coffee segment, though the company faces intense price competition and shifting consumer preferences.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  Sichuan Baicha Baidao operates as the third-largest player in China's highly competitive freshly-made tea drink market, with a 6.8% market share in 2023, primarily through its asset-light 'ChaPanda' franchise model.
  The company's revenue is predominantly generated from selling goods and equipment to its vast network of over 8,600 franchisee-operated stores, creating a scalable business model centered on supply chain management and brand control.
  Future growth hinges on domestic store network expansion, particularly in lower-tier cities, international expansion into markets like Southeast Asia and Europe, and diversification into the coffee segment, though the company faces intense price competition and shifting consumer preferences.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) - May 2026

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's tea sector has attracted increased interest, but the share prices are volatile. Overall valuations do not look cheap, and the key is stock picking.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auntea-jenny-shanghai-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40891:1" rel="noopener">Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)</a> nd <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> are expensive on both PEG and P/B vs. ROE perspectives.</li>
<li>In two years, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)</a> will turn even cheaper.</li>
</ul>


China's tea sector has attracted increased interest, but the share prices are volatile. Overall valuations do not look cheap, and the key is stock picking.

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK) nd Mixue Group (2097 HK) are expensive on both PEG and P/B vs. ROE perspectives.
In two years, Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK), Chagee Holdings (CHA US), and Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) will turn even cheaper.


Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Macro: Central Government Focuses on Improving People's Livelihoods to Stimulate Consumption, But Short-term Impact Unlikely(+)</li>
<li>Macro: Our Take on the Chinese Government Housing Provident Fund 2024 Annual Report(/)</li>
<li>1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK: 2025 June 2 – June 8 NEV Delivery Rankings(/)</li>
</ul>


Macro: Central Government Focuses on Improving People's Livelihoods to Stimulate Consumption, But Short-term Impact Unlikely(+)
Macro: Our Take on the Chinese Government Housing Provident Fund 2024 Annual Report(/)
1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK: 2025 June 2 – June 8 NEV Delivery Rankings(/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/CHA US/2589 HK/2555 HK/Macro

China

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial Co., Ltd. develops and sells diversified tea beverage products, primarily through a franchise model under its 'ChaPanda' brand. The company offers a range of classic, seasonal, and regional tea drinks, and also manages supply chain, franchise operations, and related services. It was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Chengdu, People's Republic of China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK)

Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK IPO: Five Red Flags of Demand Rigging

HK IPO: The SFC suspended Cloudbreak and Baicha and froze HK$4.66bn of assets over suspected IPO rigging. From its releases and the deal filings,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Primer: Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) - May 2026

Sichuan Baicha Baidao operates as the third-largest player in China's highly competitive freshly-made tea drink market, with a 6.8% market share...

αSK Primers

China Tea Sector: What to Buy and Sell?

China's tea sector is attracting interest, but stock picking is key. Auntea Jenny and Mixue Group are expensive, while Chabaidao, Chagee, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/CHA US/2589 HK/2555 HK/Macro

Central government focuses on improving livelihoods to boost consumption, but short-term impact unlikely. Our analysis of Chinese government...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

​Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK IPO: Five Red Flags of Demand Rigging

HK IPO: The SFC suspended Cloudbreak and Baicha and froze HK$4.66bn of assets over suspected IPO rigging. From its releases and the deal filings,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Primer: Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) - May 2026

Sichuan Baicha Baidao operates as the third-largest player in China's highly competitive freshly-made tea drink market, with a 6.8% market share...

αSK Primers

China Tea Sector: What to Buy and Sell?

​China's tea sector is attracting interest, but stock picking is key. Auntea Jenny and Mixue Group are expensive, while Chabaidao, Chagee, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/CHA US/2589 HK/2555 HK/Macro

​Central government focuses on improving livelihoods to boost consumption, but short-term impact unlikely. Our analysis of Chinese government...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...

China's tea sector is attracting interest, but stock picking is key. Auntea Jenny and Mixue Group are expensive, while Chabaidao, Chagee, and...

Central government focuses on improving livelihoods to boost consumption, but short-term impact unlikely. Our analysis of Chinese government...