European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Porsche SE, a holding company, controls 53.3% of Volkswagen (VW) and 25% (+1 share) of Porsche AG, leveraging a dual-class share structure to consolidate control with minimal economic stakes.</li>
<li>Net debt of €5.16 billion, accrued from the Porsche AG stake acquisition, relies heavily on VW and Porsche AG dividends for debt servicing, with CF uncertainties tied to VW's restructuring.</li>
<li>Porsche SE trades at a 31.8% discount to NAV, reflecting legal liabilities, debt reduction priorities, and holding structure complexities, but this discount could tighten to 20% as risks subside.</li>
</ul>


Porsche SE, a holding company, controls 53.3% of Volkswagen (VW) and 25% (+1 share) of Porsche AG, leveraging a dual-class share structure to consolidate control with minimal economic stakes.
Net debt of €5.16 billion, accrued from the Porsche AG stake acquisition, relies heavily on VW and Porsche AG dividends for debt servicing, with CF uncertainties tied to VW's restructuring.
Porsche SE trades at a 31.8% discount to NAV, reflecting legal liabilities, debt reduction priorities, and holding structure complexities, but this discount could tighten to 20% as risks subside.


High Conviction 2025: Porsche's SE Discount to NAV Reduction

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during November. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 49.8% (vs. 48.7% as of 29 November); GBL, 40.6% (vs. 40.9%); Heineken Holding, 14.4% (vs. 14%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 4.0% (vs. 2.4%); Investor B, 4.3% (vs. 2.8%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.8% (vs. 31.7%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.4% (vs. 22.5%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during November. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 49.8% (vs. 48.7% as of 29 November); GBL, 40.6% (vs. 40.9%); Heineken Holding, 14.4% (vs. 14%); 
Industrivärden C, 4.0% (vs. 2.4%); Investor B, 4.3% (vs. 2.8%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.8% (vs. 31.7%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.4% (vs. 22.5%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November'24 Report

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

CK Infrastructure Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Aussie Tax-Loss Selling Baskets worked very well on the sell side from 30 April through end-June 2024. What now?  Unwind.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a> has now submitted an application for a secondary listing, not a dual-primary listing, on the London stock exchange. Admission expected on the 19th August. </li>
<li>The right trade is to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtower-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31042:1" rel="noopener">JTower (4485 JP)</a> below terms. The really right trade is to already be an owner. IF you're an arbitrageur, you know what to do.</li>
</ul>


The Aussie Tax-Loss Selling Baskets worked very well on the sell side from 30 April through end-June 2024. What now?  Unwind.

CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) has now submitted an application for a secondary listing, not a dual-primary listing, on the London stock exchange. Admission expected on the 19th August. 
The right trade is to buy JTower (4485 JP) below terms. The really right trade is to already be an owner. IF you're an arbitrageur, you know what to do.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax Loss Basket, CK Infra, JTower, Porsche

Podcast by CEO, Norges Bank Investment Management, In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

Podcast by CEO, Norges Bank Investment Management

The CEO of the largest single investor in the world, Norges Bank Investment Management, interviews leaders of some of the largest companies in the world. You will get to know the leader, their strategy, leadership principles, and much more. Hosted on Acast. See https://www.acast.com/privacy-policy for more information.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The number 911 is significant to Porsche as it represents their iconic first edition launched in 1963</li><li>Porsche focuses on drivability, handling, and performance in their sports cars</li><li>Porsche has built an iconic brand over seven decades with a focus on fulfilling customers' dreams of driving a sporty, exclusive car</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The number 911 is significant to Porsche as it represents their iconic first edition launched in 1963Porsche focuses on drivability, handling, and performance in their sports carsPorsche has built an iconic brand over seven decades with a focus on fulfilling customers' dreams of driving a sporty, exclusive carThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Porsche and Volkswagen CEO: Leadership, iconic cars & Chinese competition

<ul>
<li>Net debt improved by around €1 billion to c. €5.8 billion. Prioritising deleveraging and allocations to new venture investments over dividends seem to have a negative impact on valuation.</li>
<li>Porsche SE is viewed as a holding company of Volkswagen Group, which should warrant a discount of 15%-25% on the stock, instead of the massive 44.6% discount to NAV.</li>
<li>Assuming a typical company holding discount of 15-25% range, the current share price indicates Porsche SE is liable for the whole c. €6.5 billion legal claims.</li>
</ul>


Net debt improved by around €1 billion to c. €5.8 billion. Prioritising deleveraging and allocations to new venture investments over dividends seem to have a negative impact on valuation.
Porsche SE is viewed as a holding company of Volkswagen Group, which should warrant a discount of 15%-25% on the stock, instead of the massive 44.6% discount to NAV.
Assuming a typical company holding discount of 15-25% range, the current share price indicates Porsche SE is liable for the whole c. €6.5 billion legal claims.


Preference for Deleveraging, Model Update

Germany

Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche Aktiengesellschaft manufactures passenger vehicles. The Company offers sports cars, SUVs, and other motor vehicles, as well as provides finance services. Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dr Ing hc F Porsche (P911 GR)

High Conviction 2025: Porsche's SE Discount to NAV Reduction

Porsche SE is currently trading at a 31.8% discount to NAV. The discount will continue to tighten toward approximately 20% as legal claim risks...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered European holdcos mainly widened during November. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax Loss Basket, CK Infra, JTower, Porsche

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Porsche and Volkswagen CEO: Leadership, iconic cars & Chinese competition

The Porsche brand is synonymous with success in motorsport, focusing on drivability, innovation, and a commitment to achieving the best performance...

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

Preference for Deleveraging, Model Update

Porsche SE's focus on reducing debt and investing in new ventures impacts valuation, leading to a significant discount on stock price compared to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

High Conviction 2025: Porsche's SE Discount to NAV Reduction

Porsche SE is currently trading at a 31.8% discount to NAV. The discount will continue to tighten toward approximately 20% as legal claim risks...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered European holdcos mainly widened during November. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax Loss Basket, CK Infra, JTower, Porsche

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Porsche and Volkswagen CEO: Leadership, iconic cars & Chinese competition

The Porsche brand is synonymous with success in motorsport, focusing on drivability, innovation, and a commitment to achieving the best performance...

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

Preference for Deleveraging, Model Update

​Porsche SE's focus on reducing debt and investing in new ventures impacts valuation, leading to a significant discount on stock price compared to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche SE's focus on reducing debt and investing in new ventures impacts valuation, leading to a significant discount on stock price compared to...