Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Forensic Accounting

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals / Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glenmark-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10454:1" rel="noopener">Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (GNP IN)</a> FY24 results have seen PBT reducing from INR 2.4 bn to INR 365 mn i.e. by nearly 85%. </li>
<li>This was on account for exceptional line items, which included gains from sale stake in Glenmark Lifesciences, but was offset by losses pertaining to legalities and heavy impairment in assets.</li>
<li>The habit of having exceptional items, especially impairments is not something new or one-offs. There have been regular impairments carried in the past as well. </li>
</ul>



Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (GNP IN) FY24 results have seen PBT reducing from INR 2.4 bn to INR 365 mn i.e. by nearly 85%. 
This was on account for exceptional line items, which included gains from sale stake in Glenmark Lifesciences, but was offset by losses pertaining to legalities and heavy impairment in assets.
The habit of having exceptional items, especially impairments is not something new or one-offs. There have been regular impairments carried in the past as well. 


Glenmark Pharma- Value Erosion Not Something New

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 48.8% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 35.5bn (US$426m).</li>
<li>Since January, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the potential deletes by a big margin. Watch out for the general election results on 4 June for momentum change.</li>
</ul>


There could be 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 48.8% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 35.5bn (US$426m).
Since January, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the potential deletes by a big margin. Watch out for the general election results on 4 June for momentum change.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 49% Turnover; US$850m Trade; Election Results Coming

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/concord-biotech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36267:1" rel="noopener">Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN)</a> listed in India on 18th Aug 23 after raising US$188m. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown with Helix Investment selling its entire stake.</li>
<li>Concord Biotech (Concord) is an India-based biopharma firm, which develops and manufactures fermentation-based active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).</li>
<li>Coming up for six-month lockup expiry on 7th Feb 24 are the firm’s pre-IPO shareholders, along with a portion of its promoters’ stake.</li>
</ul>



Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN) listed in India on 18th Aug 23 after raising US$188m. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown with Helix Investment selling its entire stake.
Concord Biotech (Concord) is an India-based biopharma firm, which develops and manufactures fermentation-based active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).
Coming up for six-month lockup expiry on 7th Feb 24 are the firm’s pre-IPO shareholders, along with a portion of its promoters’ stake.


Concord Biotech's US$650m Lock-Up Expiry - Some Could Be Tempted to Book Multi-Bagger Gains

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indegene-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36629:1" rel="noopener">Indegene Limited (1864095D IN)</a> raised around US$220m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.</li>
<li>Indegene is a “digital-first” commercialisation firm with an exclusive focus on the global life sciences industry.</li>
<li>We had looked at the firm’s past performance and shared our thoughts on Indegene’s valuation in earlier notes. In this note, we will look at the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Indegene Limited (1864095D IN) raised around US$220m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
Indegene is a “digital-first” commercialisation firm with an exclusive focus on the global life sciences industry.
We had looked at the firm’s past performance and shared our thoughts on Indegene’s valuation in earlier notes. In this note, we will look at the trading dynamics.


Indegene IPO Trading - High Anchor Quality + Strong Demand, Expect a Pop on Debut

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> reported 13% revenue growth to INR71.1B in Q4FY24. EBITDA climbed 15% to INR18.7B, while net profit zoomed 36% to INR13.1B.</li>
<li>North America revenue grew 29% YoY to INR32.6B, driven by increase in volumes of base business, contribution from new launches, integration of Mayne portfolio, partly offset by price erosion.</li>
<li>After adjusting for brand divestment, revenue from India increased 11% YoY. Gross margin improved 140bps YoY and 10bps QoQ to 58.6%, due to better product mix and cost savings.</li>
</ul>



Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) reported 13% revenue growth to INR71.1B in Q4FY24. EBITDA climbed 15% to INR18.7B, while net profit zoomed 36% to INR13.1B.
North America revenue grew 29% YoY to INR32.6B, driven by increase in volumes of base business, contribution from new launches, integration of Mayne portfolio, partly offset by price erosion.
After adjusting for brand divestment, revenue from India increased 11% YoY. Gross margin improved 140bps YoY and 10bps QoQ to 58.6%, due to better product mix and cost savings.


Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): Q4 Result- Sequentially Weak Quarter; Time to Book Profit

India

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited provides a complete range of pharmaceutical services. The Company manufactures bulk drugs and formulations including verapamil and cephalexin. The Company also manufactures and exports molecules such as norfloxacin, ciprofloxacin, and varieties of semi-synthetic penicillin. The Company markets its products in India and around the world.

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Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)

Glenmark Pharma- Value Erosion Not Something New

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals FY24 results show 85% decrease in PBT due to exceptional items like sale gains and asset impairments. Regular impairments...

Nitin Mangal

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 49% Turnover; US$850m Trade; Election Results Coming

There could be 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index in June. The potential adds have outpeformed the potential deletes. Results of the...

Brian Freitas

Concord Biotech's US$650m Lock-Up Expiry - Some Could Be Tempted to Book Multi-Bagger Gains

Ontario is looking to raise US$56m from selling a 3.4% stake in Concord Biotech. The deal has a floor price of INR1,320/share, at a 8.5% discount...

Clarence Chu

Indegene IPO Trading - High Anchor Quality + Strong Demand, Expect a Pop on Debut

Indegene Limited (1864095D IN) raised around US$220m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. In this note, we will...

Clarence Chu