Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Indian pharmaceutical companies started FY24 on a strong note. Due to better pricing environment, drug shortages, and new launches, sector heavyweights reported double-digit revenue growth from U.S. business.</li>
<li>Price erosion has come down to high single-digit from their peak of mid-teens. Despite the rise in number of ANDA approvals from the US FDA, Indian companies continued their dominance.</li>
<li>Indian pharmaceutical companies have accelerated the filing pace. With shorter timeline of approval, the companies are witnessing a spike in number of approvals. Regulatory risk remains the main downside risk.</li>
</ul>


Indian pharmaceutical companies started FY24 on a strong note. Due to better pricing environment, drug shortages, and new launches, sector heavyweights reported double-digit revenue growth from U.S. business.
Price erosion has come down to high single-digit from their peak of mid-teens. Despite the rise in number of ANDA approvals from the US FDA, Indian companies continued their dominance.
Indian pharmaceutical companies have accelerated the filing pace. With shorter timeline of approval, the companies are witnessing a spike in number of approvals. Regulatory risk remains the main downside risk.


Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders is looking to raise around US$600m via selling a 6.9% stake in Mankind Pharma.</li>
<li>MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.</li>
<li>We have looked at the IPO and lock-up release earlier. In this note, we talk about the other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders is looking to raise around US$600m via selling a 6.9% stake in Mankind Pharma.
MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.
We have looked at the IPO and lock-up release earlier. In this note, we talk about the other deal dynamics.


Mankind Pharma Placement - Its Expensive, but at Least It’s High Quality

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.</li>
<li>There are a lot of implementations this week, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.</li>
</ul>


There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

Equity Bottom-Up

Torrent Pharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/torrent-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15762:1" rel="noopener">Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN)</a> reported 16% YoY revenue growth to INR26.6B in Q2FY24. Strong performance in India, Brazil, and Germany is partially offset by the revenue decline in the U.S.</li>
<li>EBITDA increased 22% YoY to INR8.3, leading to 138bps YoY expansion in margin to 31%, due to cost optimization and discontinuation of the low margin business in the U.S.</li>
<li>Initial bull thesis on the company regarding its domestic market strength is still intact. Further upside will be driven by superior performance in India and Brazil businesses and margin improvements.</li>
</ul>



Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN) reported 16% YoY revenue growth to INR26.6B in Q2FY24. Strong performance in India, Brazil, and Germany is partially offset by the revenue decline in the U.S.
EBITDA increased 22% YoY to INR8.3, leading to 138bps YoY expansion in margin to 31%, due to cost optimization and discontinuation of the low margin business in the U.S.
Initial bull thesis on the company regarding its domestic market strength is still intact. Further upside will be driven by superior performance in India and Brazil businesses and margin improvements.


Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN): Q2FY24 Result- Domestic Business Continued Solid Growth Path

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).</li>
<li>Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).
Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

India

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited provides a complete range of pharmaceutical services. The Company manufactures bulk drugs and formulations including verapamil and cephalexin. The Company also manufactures and exports molecules such as norfloxacin, ciprofloxacin, and varieties of semi-synthetic penicillin. The Company markets its products in India and around the world.

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Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)

Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...

Tina Banerjee

Mankind Pharma Placement - Its Expensive, but at Least It’s High Quality

A group of shareholders is looking to raise around US$600m via selling a 6.9% stake in Mankind Pharma. We had looked at the lockup release earlier.

Sumeet Singh

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN): Q2FY24 Result- Domestic Business Continued Solid Growth Path

Torrent reported 16% revenue growth in Q2, led by India, where outperformance continued due to strong growth in chronic therapies, gastro demand...

Tina Banerjee

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index resulting in 1-way turnover of 58.2% and in a 1-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m). Adds...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

​Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...

Tina Banerjee

Mankind Pharma Placement - Its Expensive, but at Least It’s High Quality

A group of shareholders is looking to raise around US$600m via selling a 6.9% stake in Mankind Pharma. We had looked at the lockup release earlier.

Sumeet Singh

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN): Q2FY24 Result- Domestic Business Continued Solid Growth Path

​Torrent reported 16% revenue growth in Q2, led by India, where outperformance continued due to strong growth in chronic therapies, gastro demand...

Tina Banerjee

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index resulting in 1-way turnover of 58.2% and in a 1-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m). Adds...

Brian Freitas

Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...

Torrent reported 16% revenue growth in Q2, led by India, where outperformance continued due to strong growth in chronic therapies, gastro demand...