Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We are two-thirds of the way through the review period for the December review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a>. Changes become effective at the close 16 December.  </li>
<li>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN)</a> as the highest ranked non-constituent in inclusion zone, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> is the lowest ranked constituent in deletion zone.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade over 10 days of delivery volume on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a>, so the impact will be significant.</li>
</ul>


We are two-thirds of the way through the review period for the December review of the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX). Changes become effective at the close 16 December.  
We see Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN) as the highest ranked non-constituent in inclusion zone, while Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) is the lowest ranked constituent in deletion zone.
Passive trackers will need to trade over 10 days of delivery volume on Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN) and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN), so the impact will be significant.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Green Could Replace Dr. Reddy

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> is selling its U.S.-based CDMO business, Metrics Contract Services for $475 million. The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2022.</li>
<li>Allowing for reinvestment needs, the net proceeds from the sale will be used to repay the syndicated debt facility and return surplus capital to shareholders.</li>
<li>Combined oral contraceptive Nextstellis remains the company’s most significant commercial opportunity. While Nextstellis was launched in the U.S. in June 2021, Mayne has launched Nextstellis in Australia in July 2022.  </li>
</ul>



Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) is selling its U.S.-based CDMO business, Metrics Contract Services for $475 million. The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2022.
Allowing for reinvestment needs, the net proceeds from the sale will be used to repay the syndicated debt facility and return surplus capital to shareholders.
Combined oral contraceptive Nextstellis remains the company’s most significant commercial opportunity. While Nextstellis was launched in the U.S. in June 2021, Mayne has launched Nextstellis in Australia in July 2022.  


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): CDMO Business Sale- A Step Towards Focus Solely on Specialty Pharma

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> reported 15% y/y growth in revenue in Q4, driven by strong performance across all the markets. Adjusted for one-offs, net profit grew 54% y/y.</li>
<li>Despite pricing pressure, the U.S. business should continue its growth momentum with better traction in key products launched in FY22 and upcoming new launches, including generic version of Revlimid.</li>
<li>Inflationary pressure (raw material, freight), lower offtake of COVID-related products in India, and currency headwinds in emerging markets are some downside risks for the company.</li>
</ul>



Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) reported 15% y/y growth in revenue in Q4, driven by strong performance across all the markets. Adjusted for one-offs, net profit grew 54% y/y.
Despite pricing pressure, the U.S. business should continue its growth momentum with better traction in key products launched in FY22 and upcoming new launches, including generic version of Revlimid.
Inflationary pressure (raw material, freight), lower offtake of COVID-related products in India, and currency headwinds in emerging markets are some downside risks for the company.


Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) 4QFY22: Double-Digit Sales Growth; One-Off Charge Impacted Profit

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aurobindo-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19974:1" rel="noopener">Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN)</a> has been issued six observations for its oral manufacturing unit by the FDA, which will further impact its business. The company closed its New Jersey facility.</li>
<li>Aurobindo’s recent acquisition of Veritaz Health for INR1.7 billion does not really fit for the company's high hope for the domestic formulation business. </li>
<li>Aurobindo shares are trading at a forward P/E of 10.9x, which is cheaper than the peers. However, the company is not expected to see multiple expansion in near future.  </li>
</ul>



Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN) has been issued six observations for its oral manufacturing unit by the FDA, which will further impact its business. The company closed its New Jersey facility.
Aurobindo’s recent acquisition of Veritaz Health for INR1.7 billion does not really fit for the company's high hope for the domestic formulation business. 
Aurobindo shares are trading at a forward P/E of 10.9x, which is cheaper than the peers. However, the company is not expected to see multiple expansion in near future.  


Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN): Regulatory Issues Continue to Haunt the Company

<ul>
<li>Today is the last day of the review period for the June review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a>. Changes become effective at the close on 17 June. </li>
<li>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> is a close add on sector balance.</li>
<li>The impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">DRRD IN</a> will be higher than on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">TTMT IN</a>, in terms of days of ADV to trade and days of delivery volume that needs to change hands.</li>
</ul>


Today is the last day of the review period for the June review of the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX). Changes become effective at the close on 17 June. 
We see Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) and Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) replacing Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN). Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) is a close add on sector balance.
The impact on DRRD IN will be higher than on TTMT IN, in terms of days of ADV to trade and days of delivery volume that needs to change hands.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors Should Replace Dr. Reddy; Hindalco Is Close

India

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories is an Indian multinational pharmaceutical company that researches, develops, manufactures, and markets a wide array of pharmaceutical products and services. The company produces over 190 medications, 60 active pharmaceutical ingredients, diagnostic kits, critical care, and biotechnology products. It operates globally across multiple regions, offering generic drugs, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), differentiated formulations, biosimilars, and proprietary products. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Hyderabad, Telangana, India.

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Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)

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