TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Last week, New York Governor pointed towards legalizing online gambling to try to plug the budget gaps that COVID has blown open. He wants to raise $500M in revenues annually. We don't think he will get there, but we do think NY is a $700M TAM.</p><p>At $52, is it time to re-engage on Draft Kings even after an 11% rally?</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Last week, New York Governor pointed towards legalizing online gambling to try to plug the budget gaps that COVID has blown open. He wants to raise $500M in revenues annually. We don't think he will get there, but we do think NY is a $700M TAM.At $52, is it time to re-engage on Draft Kings even after an 11% rally?Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

NY State To Legalize Gambling, Double Down on DraftKings?

<p>We wanted to follow up on Match given we advocated it from the short side early in the year, and closed the short in May before the spinout. Is now the time to re-engage?</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We wanted to follow up on Match given we advocated it from the short side early in the year, and closed the short in May before the spinout. Is now the time to re-engage?Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

<div><p>Our investment philosophy attracts us to investing behind THE major secular trend in the world today…offline to online transition of massive TAMs. Even the largest TAMs in the world – groceries, entertainment, autos, commerce, finance, real estate, etc. are still incredibly early in the long term re-platforming of how the global economy functions, but COVID has turbocharged these trends. Gambling has been online in Europe and Australia and parts of Asia for a few years now, but the US is jusssst scratching the surface.<strong> We think this is all still true. But the stock has moved up 80% in a month. Be fearful when others are greedy.</strong></p></div><p></p><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

Our investment philosophy attracts us to investing behind THE major secular trend in the world today…offline to online transition of massive TAMs. Even the largest TAMs in the world – groceries, entertainment, autos, commerce, finance, real estate, etc. are still incredibly early in the long term re-platforming of how the global economy functions, but COVID has turbocharged these trends. Gambling has been online in Europe and Australia and parts of Asia for a few years now, but the US is jusssst scratching the surface. We think this is all still true. But the stock has moved up 80% in a month. Be fearful when others are greedy.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Draftkings: Trading Our Pick for Future Considerations

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

<p>SPAC <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healthcare-merger-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29273:1" rel="noopener">Healthcare Merger Corp (HCCO US)</a> 's pending merger with SOC Telemed, a leader in high acute telemedicine looks like another good wave to catch by SPAC investors. As we highlighted in our Insight published on September 3, 2020 - <em>MergerTalk: SPACs May Have Become The Hot New Trend, But SPAC Investment Requires A Health Warning</em> - the majority of these SPAC merger transactions have turned out to be poor investments. In that piece, we argued for selectivity and caution.  Of the winners, it appears that investors are most excited about transactions in “emerging” trends such as green mobility or pandemic resistant areas such as online gaming and packaged/healthy foods. We would add the Telehealth industry as another emerging trend that has garnered investor enthusiasm this year.</p><p>While we have seen a couple of successful direct Telehealth IPOs this year, and a sizeable and high priced merger transaction in the sector  involving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teladoc-health-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14233:1" rel="noopener">Teladoc Health, Inc. (TDOC US)</a> and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livongo-health-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28714:1" rel="noopener">Livongo Health Inc (LVGO US)</a>, the pending HCCO/SOC Telemed merger is the first of its kind in the SPAC investment space.  We believe that this somewhat differentiated Telehealth situation has the ingredients to join the exclusive club of winning SPAC related transactions. We detail our case for HCCO/SOC Telemed  as an attractive investment proposition below.</p>

SPAC Healthcare Merger Corp (HCCO US) 's pending merger with SOC Telemed, a leader in high acute telemedicine looks like another good wave to catch by SPAC investors. As we highlighted in our Insight published on September 3, 2020 - MergerTalk: SPACs May Have Become The Hot New Trend, But SPAC Investment Requires A Health Warning - the majority of these SPAC merger transactions have turned out to be poor investments. In that piece, we argued for selectivity and caution.  Of the winners, it appears that investors are most excited about transactions in “emerging” trends such as green mobility or pandemic resistant areas such as online gaming and packaged/healthy foods. We would add the Telehealth industry as another emerging trend that has garnered investor enthusiasm this year.While we have seen a couple of successful direct Telehealth IPOs this year, and a sizeable and high priced merger transaction in the sector  involving Teladoc Health, Inc. (TDOC US) and  Livongo Health Inc (LVGO US), the pending HCCO/SOC Telemed merger is the first of its kind in the SPAC investment space.  We believe that this somewhat differentiated Telehealth situation has the ingredients to join the exclusive club of winning SPAC related transactions. We detail our case for HCCO/SOC Telemed  as an attractive investment proposition below.

MergerTalk: Healthcare Merger/SOC Telemed-Why This Deal Can Join The Exclusive SPAC Winners Club

<div><p>Our investment philosophy attracts us to investing behind THE major secular trend in the world today…offline to online transition of massive TAMs. Even the largest TAMs in the world – groceries, entertainment, autos, commerce, finance, real estate, etc. are still incredibly early in the long term re-platforming of how the global economy functions, but <span>COVID has turbocharged these trends. Gambling has been online in Europe and Australia and parts of Asia for a few years now, but the US is jusssst scratching the surface. We think DraftKings is a great long term holding and had a good tactical entry point yesterday when we wrote this...it was up 9% today on news that Illinois (~4% of the US population) had reinstated remote registration for online gambling, just ahead of the start of NFL season. We think there's still 15%+ upside in our base case, and 56% in our bull case. </span></p></div><div></div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Our investment philosophy attracts us to investing behind THE major secular trend in the world today…offline to online transition of massive TAMs. Even the largest TAMs in the world – groceries, entertainment, autos, commerce, finance, real estate, etc. are still incredibly early in the long term re-platforming of how the global economy functions, but COVID has turbocharged these trends. Gambling has been online in Europe and Australia and parts of Asia for a few years now, but the US is jusssst scratching the surface. We think DraftKings is a great long term holding and had a good tactical entry point yesterday when we wrote this...it was up 9% today on news that Illinois (~4% of the US population) had reinstated remote registration for online gambling, just ahead of the start of NFL season. We think there's still 15%+ upside in our base case, and 56% in our bull case. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

DraftKings Inc. operates as a daily fantasy sports contest and sports betting company. The Company allows users to enter daily and weekly fantasy sports-related contests and win money based on individual player performances in American sports. DraftKings serves customers in the United States.

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DraftKings (DKNG US)

NY State To Legalize Gambling, Double Down on DraftKings?

After New York's Governor signaled he would legalize gambling, we revisit our previous bullish thesis on DraftKings to see if now is the time to re...

Aaron Gabin

Match 3Q20: Love Rollercoaster

We re-evaluate Match Group as we head back into pandemic-driven lockdowns. We thought it was a short a year ago, but now think its (going to be) an...

Aaron Gabin

Draftkings: Trading Our Pick for Future Considerations

Our investment philosophy attracts us to investing behind THE major secular trend in the world today…offline to online transition of massive TAMs....

Aaron Gabin

MergerTalk: Healthcare Merger/SOC Telemed-Why This Deal Can Join The Exclusive SPAC Winners Club

$nealth

Robert Sassoon

DraftKings: First Round Pick

Our investment philosophy attracts us to investing behind THE major secular trend in the world today…offline to online transition of massive TAMs....

Aaron Gabin

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