Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> is optimistic about the future of their exports and expects a recovery in exports as a critical catalyst for the stock over the near term.</li>
<li>The company's EV endeavors in both 2-wheelers and 3-wheelers are expected to surprise on the upside, which can deliver upside than what is currently factored in.</li>
<li>The stock also trades at undemanding valuations (16x FY25 consensus estimates), offering adequate comfort with an optionality of EV and Exports.</li>
</ul>



Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) is optimistic about the future of their exports and expects a recovery in exports as a critical catalyst for the stock over the near term.
The company's EV endeavors in both 2-wheelers and 3-wheelers are expected to surprise on the upside, which can deliver upside than what is currently factored in.
The stock also trades at undemanding valuations (16x FY25 consensus estimates), offering adequate comfort with an optionality of EV and Exports.


Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) | EV & Exports Optionality

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (1700674D IN)</a>, the largest Indian electric two-wheel vehicles (E2W) player, is seeking US$660 million from a primary raise along with a secondary raise at a US$7-8 billion valuation.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ola-electric-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:123749" rel="noopener">Ola Electric IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on high R&amp;D capitalization, ongoing losses, high attrition, declining contract liabilities, cash burn and deteriorating balance sheet. </li>
</ul>



Ola Electric (1700674D IN), the largest Indian electric two-wheel vehicles (E2W) player, is seeking US$660 million from a primary raise along with a secondary raise at a US$7-8 billion valuation.
In Ola Electric IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on high R&amp;D capitalization, ongoing losses, high attrition, declining contract liabilities, cash burn and deteriorating balance sheet. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (1700674D IN)</a>, the largest Indian electric two-wheel vehicles (E2W) player, is seeking US$660 million from a primary raise along with a secondary raise at a US$7-8 billion valuation. </li>
<li>Ola is the best-selling E2W brand in India in terms of monthly E2W registrations on the VAHAN Portal of the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on rising market share in a growing market, a rapid growth phase, increasing gross margin and a favourable cash conversion cycle.   </li>
</ul>



Ola Electric (1700674D IN), the largest Indian electric two-wheel vehicles (E2W) player, is seeking US$660 million from a primary raise along with a secondary raise at a US$7-8 billion valuation. 
Ola is the best-selling E2W brand in India in terms of monthly E2W registrations on the VAHAN Portal of the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways.
The bull case rests on rising market share in a growing market, a rapid growth phase, increasing gross margin and a favourable cash conversion cycle.   


<ul>
<li>We visited the core of the Hindi Hinterland, the "City of Patna," the capital and largest city of Bihar, the country's third most populous state.</li>
<li>While the trip paints an opportunistic and optimistic picture of Bihar, the situation of unemployment is something that still warrants attention.</li>
<li>Focus companies: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aditya-vision-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40299:1" rel="noopener">Aditya Vision (AVL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a>  , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fino-payments-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35042:1" rel="noopener">Fino Payments Bank Ltd (FINOPB IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We visited the core of the Hindi Hinterland, the "City of Patna," the capital and largest city of Bihar, the country's third most populous state.
While the trip paints an opportunistic and optimistic picture of Bihar, the situation of unemployment is something that still warrants attention.
Focus companies: Aditya Vision (AVL IN) , Eicher Motors (EIM IN)  , Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and Fino Payments Bank Ltd (FINOPB IN). 


Postcard from Patna | Breaking Sterotypes

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Improved sentiment in Asia Ex-Japan Autos sector as sustained increases in positioning continue through 2023.</li>
<li>BYD Company most widely held but stabilizing; Li Auto sees increased buying. Sector 7th most owned, underweight by -0.85%.</li>
<li>Rising Allocations, Low Historical Positioning and Net Underweight Suggest Potential Continued Demand for Auto Stocks</li>
</ul>


Improved sentiment in Asia Ex-Japan Autos sector as sustained increases in positioning continue through 2023.
BYD Company most widely held but stabilizing; Li Auto sees increased buying. Sector 7th most owned, underweight by -0.85%.
Rising Allocations, Low Historical Positioning and Net Underweight Suggest Potential Continued Demand for Auto Stocks


Asian Autos: Increasing Exposure Reflects Rising Market Confidence

India

Eicher Motors Ltd. manufactures light commercial vehicles which are sold domestically and are also exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures two-wheelers and automotive gears.

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Eicher Motors (EIM IN)

Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) | EV & Exports Optionality

BJAUT has approved the proposal for buy-back of up to 4,000,000 Equity Shares representing 1.41% of the total number of Equity Shares of the...

Pranav Bhavsar

Ola Electric IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on high R and D capitalization, ongoing losses, high attrition, declining contract liabilities, cash burn and deteriorating...

Arun George

Ola Electric IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on rising market share in a growing market, a rapid growth phase, increasing gross margin and a favourable cash conversion cycle.

Arun George

Postcard from Patna | Breaking Sterotypes

Visited Patna, the capital of Bihar, showcasing its potential but highlighting the issue of unemployment. Focus companies: Aditya Vision, Eicher...

Pranav Bhavsar

Asian Autos: Increasing Exposure Reflects Rising Market Confidence

Improved sentiment in Asia Ex-Japan Autos sector as sustained increases in positioning from active funds continue through 2023.

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) | EV & Exports Optionality

BJAUT has approved the proposal for buy-back of up to 4,000,000 Equity Shares representing 1.41% of the total number of Equity Shares of the...

Pranav Bhavsar

Ola Electric IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on high R and D capitalization, ongoing losses, high attrition, declining contract liabilities, cash burn and deteriorating...

Arun George

Ola Electric IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on rising market share in a growing market, a rapid growth phase, increasing gross margin and a favourable cash conversion cycle.

Arun George

Postcard from Patna | Breaking Sterotypes

​Visited Patna, the capital of Bihar, showcasing its potential but highlighting the issue of unemployment. Focus companies: Aditya Vision, Eicher...

Pranav Bhavsar

Asian Autos: Increasing Exposure Reflects Rising Market Confidence

Improved sentiment in Asia Ex-Japan Autos sector as sustained increases in positioning from active funds continue through 2023.

Steven Holden

Visited Patna, the capital of Bihar, showcasing its potential but highlighting the issue of unemployment. Focus companies: Aditya Vision, Eicher...