Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 56th GST Council Meeting is currently underway in New Delhi, having commenced on September 3, 2025 at 11:00 AM and will continue until September 4, 2025.</li>
<li>These are supposed to be "next-generation GST reforms" with a promise of implementing reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers.</li>
<li>Negative FII Participation, Negative Price Action, Rich Multiples coupled with Negative Earnings Revisions argue for a bearish positioning going into the "G" Day - Day of GST Reform Announcements.</li>
</ul>


The 56th GST Council Meeting is currently underway in New Delhi, having commenced on September 3, 2025 at 11:00 AM and will continue until September 4, 2025.
These are supposed to be "next-generation GST reforms" with a promise of implementing reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers.
Negative FII Participation, Negative Price Action, Rich Multiples coupled with Negative Earnings Revisions argue for a bearish positioning going into the "G" Day - Day of GST Reform Announcements.


A Trader's Guide To "G" Day | Positioning For "Next-Generation GST Reforms"

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.</li>
<li>Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.</li>
<li>Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.</li>
</ul>


The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.
Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.
Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.


EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a>  &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harley-davidson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4386:1" rel="noopener">Harley Davidson (HOG US)</a> launched their collaborative creation, the Harley-Davidson X440, in India.</li>
<li>While this is a step in the right and anticipated direction, there are potentially grave mistakes that need to be corrected.</li>
<li>For HOG, there is more to lose than to gain from this development. Additionally, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> moat around the brand and a strong riding culture is likely underrated.</li>
</ul>



Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)  &amp; Harley Davidson (HOG US) launched their collaborative creation, the Harley-Davidson X440, in India.
While this is a step in the right and anticipated direction, there are potentially grave mistakes that need to be corrected.
For HOG, there is more to lose than to gain from this development. Additionally, Eicher Motors (EIM IN) moat around the brand and a strong riding culture is likely underrated.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIFTY in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Eternal, Hindalco Industries, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra, State Bank of India, HDFC Bank, Adani Enterprises, ICICI Bank, State Bank Of India, Hdfc Bank, Hindalco Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIFTY in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Eternal, Hindalco Industries, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra, State Bank of India, HDFC Bank, Adani Enterprises, ICICI Bank, State Bank Of India, Hdfc Bank, Hindalco Industries.


NIFTY Index Earning Revision (Nov): Eternal, Hindalco Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Over Apr–Oct’26, Cumulative domestic sales of Bajaj (-6%) and Hero (-3%) offset strong performances from TVS (+14%) and RE (+25%).</li><li>In contrast, 2W exports reflected improved traction in global markets, especially in Africa and Latin America.</li><li>On a YTD basis, 3W domestic wholesales rose 13% YoY to 4.8 Lc units, led by M&amp;M (+32%) and TVS (+47%), while Bajaj remained flat. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Over Apr–Oct’26, Cumulative domestic sales of Bajaj (-6%) and Hero (-3%) offset strong performances from TVS (+14%) and RE (+25%).In contrast, 2W exports reflected improved traction in global markets, especially in Africa and Latin America.On a YTD basis, 3W domestic wholesales rose 13% YoY to 4.8 Lc units, led by M&amp;M (+32%) and TVS (+47%), while Bajaj remained flat. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Eicher Motors Ltd. manufactures light commercial vehicles which are sold domestically and are also exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures two-wheelers and automotive gears.

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Eicher Motors (EIM IN)

A Trader's Guide To "G" Day | Positioning For "Next-Generation GST Reforms"

The 56th GST Council Meeting in New Delhi aims to bring next-generation reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers, but market indicators suggest a...

Pranav Bhavsar

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | The "HOG" Wash

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL IN) & Harley-Davidson (HOG US) launched the Harley-Davidson X440 in India. Though a step in the right direction, there are...

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY Index Earning Revision (Nov): Eternal, Hindalco Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra

We analyzed NIFTY's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Eternal (ETERNAL IN), Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN), Mahindra &...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Auto Monthly Sales Volume - October 2025

Over Apr–Oct’26, Cumulative domestic sales of Bajaj (-6%) and Hero (-3%) offset strong performances from TVS (+14%) and RE (+25%).

Axis Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A Trader's Guide To "G" Day | Positioning For "Next-Generation GST Reforms"

​The 56th GST Council Meeting in New Delhi aims to bring next-generation reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers, but market indicators suggest a...

Pranav Bhavsar

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

​Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | The "HOG" Wash

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL IN) & Harley-Davidson (HOG US) launched the Harley-Davidson X440 in India. Though a step in the right direction, there are...

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY Index Earning Revision (Nov): Eternal, Hindalco Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra

We analyzed NIFTY's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Eternal (ETERNAL IN), Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN), Mahindra &...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Auto Monthly Sales Volume - October 2025

Over Apr–Oct’26, Cumulative domestic sales of Bajaj (-6%) and Hero (-3%) offset strong performances from TVS (+14%) and RE (+25%).

Axis Direct

The 56th GST Council Meeting in New Delhi aims to bring next-generation reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers, but market indicators suggest a...

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...