Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Today’s report is international in title, global in coverage. Inside, after reviewing trends in EM, Europe, and Japan--EM looks great, by the way, especially Brazil--we highlight each MSCI ACWI sector, highlighting weighting recommendations, internal themes, and stock ideas. Top-down or bottom-up, there’s actionable ideas here for everyone.

Today’s report is international in title, global in coverage. Inside, after reviewing trends in EM, Europe, and Japan--EM looks great, by the way, especially Brazil--we highlight each MSCI ACWI sector, highlighting weighting recommendations, internal themes, and stock ideas. Top-down or bottom-up, there’s actionable ideas here for everyone.

Global Equity Strategy: Sector by Sector Overview

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK CPI inflation disappointed the consensus again by holding at 2.6% in July, in line with my forecast. The underlying inflationary impulse and trend strengthened.</li>
<li>Transport prices weighed most, as expected. The offsetting news in my forecast was from weaker games &amp; toys and strength in car insurance and clothing. Payback looks set to occur in all of these areas between August and September.</li>
<li>
Weighting changes for 2017 shifted the underlying seasonality and may contribute to more market surprises.…</li>
</ul>


UK CPI inflation disappointed the consensus again by holding at 2.6% in July, in line with my forecast. The underlying inflationary impulse and trend strengthened.
Transport prices weighed most, as expected. The offsetting news in my forecast was from weaker games &amp; toys and strength in car insurance and clothing. Payback looks set to occur in all of these areas between August and September.

Weighting changes for 2017 shifted the underlying seasonality and may contribute to more market surprises.…


UK Inflation: Awaiting Final Autumnal Ascent

<ul><li>UK inflation in April was 0.1pp stronger than expected, with 0.4pp increases in the CPI and RPI rates to 2.7% and 3.5% respectively. Airfares were the biggest source of the surge, but not the surprise.</li><li>Vehicle excise duty reforms added 8bp in a price level shock. Clothing was the largest sectoral surprise in my forecast, but with discount shares small, payback looks likely. Probable positive payback in games prices in May provides an offset.</li><li>A cap on prepayment energy tariffs appears to be binding inflation in utilities. Cuts to social housing rents seem to be having an especially long-lasting effect too, with this effect knocking 7bp off annual inflation for another 35 months. </li><li>Altogether, the peak in my CPI inflation forecast has fallen by about 0.2pp over the past month to 3.0%. RPI inflation is also influenced by all these shocks, plus weak house prices, which frontload some of that weakness from my forecast.</li></ul>

UK inflation in April was 0.1pp stronger than expected, with 0.4pp increases in the CPI and RPI rates to 2.7% and 3.5% respectively. Airfares were the biggest source of the surge, but not the surprise.Vehicle excise duty reforms added 8bp in a price level shock. Clothing was the largest sectoral surprise in my forecast, but with discount shares small, payback looks likely. Probable positive payback in games prices in May provides an offset.A cap on prepayment energy tariffs appears to be binding inflation in utilities. Cuts to social housing rents seem to be having an especially long-lasting effect too, with this effect knocking 7bp off annual inflation for another 35 months. Altogether, the peak in my CPI inflation forecast has fallen by about 0.2pp over the past month to 3.0%. RPI inflation is also influenced by all these shocks, plus weak house prices, which frontload some of that weakness from my forecast.

UK Inflation: Resurgent Toward a Lower Peak

<ul><li>UK inflation is set to resume its resurgent trend in April, driven by positive payback in airfares (after the late Easter) and energy tariff hikes. Higher weights in the RPI basket, together with a large council tax hike, are even more supportive for that index. I expect a rise to 2.64% in the CPI and 3.6% on the RPI.</li></ul>There have been some mixed inflationary surprises in recent months. February was strong as imported price pressures passed through, then March was soft amid a decline in airfares…

UK inflation is set to resume its resurgent trend in April, driven by positive payback in airfares (after the late Easter) and energy tariff hikes. Higher weights in the RPI basket, together with a large council tax hike, are even more supportive for that index. I expect a rise to 2.64% in the CPI and 3.6% on the RPI.There have been some mixed inflationary surprises in recent months. February was strong as imported price pressures passed through, then March was soft amid a decline in airfares…

Preview: UK Inflation's Resurgence in April

France

Electricite de France (EDF) produces, transmits, distributes, imports and exports electricity.  The Company, using nuclear power, coal and gas, provides electricity for French energy consumers.

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Electricite De France Sa (EDF FP)

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Sector by Sector Overview

Today’s report is international in title, global in coverage. Inside, after reviewing trends in EM, Europe, and Japan--EM looks great, by the way,...

Vermilion Research

UK Inflation: Awaiting Final Autumnal Ascent

UK CPI inflation disappointed the consensus again by holding at 2.6% in July, in line with my forecast. The underlying inflationary impulse and...

Phil Rush

UK Inflation: Resurgent Toward a Lower Peak

UK inflation in April was 0.1pp stronger than expected, with 0.4pp increases in the CPI and RPI rates to 2.7% and 3.5% respectively. Airfares were...

Phil Rush

Preview: UK Inflation's Resurgence in April

UK inflation is set to resume its resurgent trend in April, driven by positive payback in airfares (after the late Easter) and energy tariff hikes....

Phil Rush

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