Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Thailand's gas liberalization (under EPPO's review, likely to be concrete in 2H20E) will allow for new LNG shippers, benefiting the country in terms of cost savings and lower electricity tariffs due to competitive LNG prices.</li><li>Liberalization will also be a boon to SPPs' margins for power sales to industrial users, with the expectation of slight to moderate momentum for GULF and BGRIM's earnings, respectively, in the years ahead.</li><li>Meanwhile, we expect PTT's market share in gas sales to be threatened in the long run, but with limited downside to its consolidated earnings.</li></ul>

Thailand's gas liberalization (under EPPO's review, likely to be concrete in 2H20E) will allow for new LNG shippers, benefiting the country in terms of cost savings and lower electricity tariffs due to competitive LNG prices.Liberalization will also be a boon to SPPs' margins for power sales to industrial users, with the expectation of slight to moderate momentum for GULF and BGRIM's earnings, respectively, in the years ahead.Meanwhile, we expect PTT's market share in gas sales to be threatened in the long run, but with limited downside to its consolidated earnings.

Development of Thailand's Gas Liberalization

Event-Driven

PTT Oil and Retail Business / Event-Driven

<ul><li>Modulus Venture Co., Ltd. (“Modulus,” a wholly owned subsidiary of OR) has acquired a 55.41% stake in Thai Pipeline Network Co., Ltd. (“TPN”), which operates an oil pipeline system from Saraburi to the Northeast, from Big Gas Technology Co., Ltd. for a total value of up to Bt2.2bn (with EGCO holding the remaining 44.59%).</li><li>We view the investment in TPN as a strategic asset that enhances the longterm competitiveness of OR’s mobility business, particularly in the Northeast, which accounts for ~30% of its total oil sales volume (with ~40% market share and ~649 service stations, or ~27% of its nationwide network).</li><li>We expect TPN to have limited contribution to OR’s earnings in the short to medium term, as it remains loss-making.</li></ul>

Modulus Venture Co., Ltd. (“Modulus,” a wholly owned subsidiary of OR) has acquired a 55.41% stake in Thai Pipeline Network Co., Ltd. (“TPN”), which operates an oil pipeline system from Saraburi to the Northeast, from Big Gas Technology Co., Ltd. for a total value of up to Bt2.2bn (with EGCO holding the remaining 44.59%).We view the investment in TPN as a strategic asset that enhances the longterm competitiveness of OR’s mobility business, particularly in the Northeast, which accounts for ~30% of its total oil sales volume (with ~40% market share and ~649 service stations, or ~27% of its nationwide network).We expect TPN to have limited contribution to OR’s earnings in the short to medium term, as it remains loss-making.

PTT Oil And Retail Business Plc (OR): Acquiring A 55.41% Stake In Thai Pipeline Network...

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Over a year of declining interest rates has saved SET-listed companies more than Bt14bn per quarter in interest expenses, as the effective interest rate fell from 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.</li><li>The policy rate cut from 2.50% in 3Q24 to 1.50% in 3Q25 has filtered through to listed companies, lowering their effective interest rate from its peak of 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.</li><li>The time-interest-earned (TIE) ratio, calculated as EBIT divided by interest expenses, rose from 2.4x in 4Q24 to 3.4x in 3Q25, while financial leverage declined from 1.7x in 4Q24 to 1.4x in 2Q25.</li></ul>

Over a year of declining interest rates has saved SET-listed companies more than Bt14bn per quarter in interest expenses, as the effective interest rate fell from 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.The policy rate cut from 2.50% in 3Q24 to 1.50% in 3Q25 has filtered through to listed companies, lowering their effective interest rate from its peak of 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.The time-interest-earned (TIE) ratio, calculated as EBIT divided by interest expenses, rose from 2.4x in 4Q24 to 3.4x in 3Q25, while financial leverage declined from 1.7x in 4Q24 to 1.4x in 2Q25.

Special Report - Lower Rates Lift SET 20063 EPS; Top Picks: GULF, BCPG, EGCO, LH

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,443/1,432 points and the resistance at 1,454/1,461 points (25/10-day EMA).</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a large sideways range of 1,273-1,716 points.</li><li>The short-term trend continues to decline, with the index seeking a major support level, with a pattern of lower highs and lower lows for the eighth consecutive day.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,443/1,432 points and the resistance at 1,454/1,461 points (25/10-day EMA).In the medium term, the index remains in a large sideways range of 1,273-1,716 points.The short-term trend continues to decline, with the index seeking a major support level, with a pattern of lower highs and lower lows for the eighth consecutive day.

BoJ Meeting; US Earnings From Apple and Amazon

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,360/1,350 points (1/2 and 2/3 of the Fibonacci range of 1,320-1,404 points) and the resistance at 1,371/1,375 points (25-day EMA/50-day EMA).</li><li>Consensus expectations for German inflation in May are +0.2% MoM and +2.4% YoY (compared to April's +0.5% MoM and +2.2% YoY).</li><li>We recommend stocks with positive news stories: TTB, HANA and SVI.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,360/1,350 points (1/2 and 2/3 of the Fibonacci range of 1,320-1,404 points) and the resistance at 1,371/1,375 points (25-day EMA/50-day EMA).Consensus expectations for German inflation in May are +0.2% MoM and +2.4% YoY (compared to April's +0.5% MoM and +2.2% YoY).We recommend stocks with positive news stories: TTB, HANA and SVI.

Thailand

Electricity Generating Public Company Limited (EGCO Group) is an independent power producer and energy-related business operator. It generates electricity from various fuel sources, including fossil fuels and renewable energy, and provides maintenance, engineering, and construction services for power plants and other industries. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded on May 12, 1992.

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Electricity Generating (EGCO TB)

Development of Thailand's Gas Liberalization

Thailand's gas liberalization (under EPPO's review, likely to be concrete in 2H20E) will allow for new LNG shippers, benefiting the country in...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT Oil And Retail Business Plc (OR): Acquiring A 55.41% Stake In Thai Pipeline Network...

We view the investment in TPN as a strategic asset that enhances the longterm competitiveness of OR’s mobility business, particularly in the...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report - Lower Rates Lift SET 20063 EPS; Top Picks: GULF, BCPG, EGCO, LH

Over a year of declining interest rates has saved SET-listed companies more than Bt14bn per quarter in interest expenses, as the effective interest...

Krungthai XSpring

BoJ Meeting; US Earnings From Apple and Amazon

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,443/1,432 points and the resistance at 1,454/1,461 points...

Krungthai XSpring

Strategic Daily Picks

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,360/1,350 points (1/2 and 2/3 of the Fibonacci range of...

Krungthai XSpring

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