Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FDA approval of Wegovy is overvalued at approx. $460 billion. Market exaggerated the worth without proper assessment of weight loss results and risks associated with the drug.</li>
<li>Clinical trials showed a 14.9% weight loss with diet and exercise; real-world results would be lower. Impact on BMI for obese individuals won't be significant. Long-term use is questionable.</li>
<li>Competition in the GLP-1 market is fierce. Novo Nordisk faces challenges in India and China, increased capex spending, and risks from compounding pharmacies and potential legal issues.</li>
</ul>


FDA approval of Wegovy is overvalued at approx. $460 billion. Market exaggerated the worth without proper assessment of weight loss results and risks associated with the drug.
Clinical trials showed a 14.9% weight loss with diet and exercise; real-world results would be lower. Impact on BMI for obese individuals won't be significant. Long-term use is questionable.
Competition in the GLP-1 market is fierce. Novo Nordisk faces challenges in India and China, increased capex spending, and risks from compounding pharmacies and potential legal issues.


Novo Nordisk: Is the FDA Approval of Wegovy Worth an Extra $460 Bn?

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Innovent is most well-known as the developer of mazdutide in China, however this is overshadowing a strong portfolio of oncology drugs in a very high growth market.</li>
<li>China’s approach to healthcare is being defined by having the biggest diabetic population, over 4 million new cancer cases per year, and over 100 million living with obesity.</li>
<li>We expect the valuation gap between the two first-to-market GLP-1 drugs, and competition to close. Oncology drug sales and valuations will continue its growth trajectory.</li>
</ul>


Innovent is most well-known as the developer of mazdutide in China, however this is overshadowing a strong portfolio of oncology drugs in a very high growth market.
China’s approach to healthcare is being defined by having the biggest diabetic population, over 4 million new cancer cases per year, and over 100 million living with obesity.
We expect the valuation gap between the two first-to-market GLP-1 drugs, and competition to close. Oncology drug sales and valuations will continue its growth trajectory.


Innovent Biologics(1801 HK)– More than Just a GLP-1 Play

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The obesity problem has escalated at an alarming rate in Asia. </li>
<li>Expect strong growth for GLP-1s over the next few years, however, companies that produce next-generation drugs will take the lead.</li>
<li>The significant increase in newly approved drugs will result in margin pressure - pricing will be key.</li>
</ul>


The obesity problem has escalated at an alarming rate in Asia. 
Expect strong growth for GLP-1s over the next few years, however, companies that produce next-generation drugs will take the lead.
The significant increase in newly approved drugs will result in margin pressure - pricing will be key.


Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> recorded153% YoY revenue growth to ¥41B for Leqembi during H1FY26, driven by significant growth in Japan (+177% YoY) and Americas (+84% YoY).</li>
<li>For FY26, Eisai has guided for Leqembi revenue of ¥77B, up 73% YoY.  H1FY26 Leqembi revenue represents progress rate of more than 50%, thereby raising conviction of meeting full-year guidance.</li>
<li>Recent clinical trial setbacks suffered by two large players, Johnson &amp; Johnson and Novo Nordisk should act in favor of Leqembi.  </li>
</ul>



Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) recorded153% YoY revenue growth to ¥41B for Leqembi during H1FY26, driven by significant growth in Japan (+177% YoY) and Americas (+84% YoY).
For FY26, Eisai has guided for Leqembi revenue of ¥77B, up 73% YoY.  H1FY26 Leqembi revenue represents progress rate of more than 50%, thereby raising conviction of meeting full-year guidance.
Recent clinical trial setbacks suffered by two large players, Johnson &amp; Johnson and Novo Nordisk should act in favor of Leqembi.  


Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Label Expansion Drives Leqembi Ahead; Competitive Landscape Turns Favorable

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ablbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35621:1" rel="noopener">ABLBio (298380 KS)</a> has secured equity investment of KRW22B (~$15M) from Eli Lilly. The issue price of KRW125,900 per share represents ~22% discount to last undisturbed closing price.</li>
<li>ABL Bio plans to use the proceeds to advance its core technologies, including bispecific antibody platform, Grabody and bispecific ADCs. ABL Bio has rich pipeline, with eight ongoing clinical projects.</li>
<li>From a long-term perspective, relationship with Lilly opens a broad range of collaborative opportunities to develop innovative therapies. We may see similar deals with other major global pharma companies.</li>
</ul>



ABLBio (298380 KS) has secured equity investment of KRW22B (~$15M) from Eli Lilly. The issue price of KRW125,900 per share represents ~22% discount to last undisturbed closing price.
ABL Bio plans to use the proceeds to advance its core technologies, including bispecific antibody platform, Grabody and bispecific ADCs. ABL Bio has rich pipeline, with eight ongoing clinical projects.
From a long-term perspective, relationship with Lilly opens a broad range of collaborative opportunities to develop innovative therapies. We may see similar deals with other major global pharma companies.


ABLBio (298380 KS): Funding From Lilly To Strengthen Drug Development Capabilities

United States

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products for humans and animals. The Company products are sold in countries around the world. Eli Lilly products include neuroscience, endocrine, anti-infectives, cardiovascular agents, oncology, and animal health products.

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Eli Lilly & (LLY UN)

Novo Nordisk: Is the FDA Approval of Wegovy Worth an Extra $460 Bn?

In light of the bullish Innovent report, and the ongoing news about new GLP-1s in the pipeline, this "Novo Nordisk - critical analysis" provides a...

daaimon

Innovent Biologics(1801 HK)– More than Just a GLP-1 Play

Mazdutide's strong results will position it well against the competition, and the valuation gap will narrow. The oncology portfolio will continue...

daaimon

The GLP-1 Landscape in Asia

First-gen GLP-1 impact may fall short of hype, demand still strong. Next-gen drugs promise better results, tolerance, price. Expect margin pressure...

daaimon

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Label Expansion Drives Leqembi Ahead; Competitive Landscape Turns Favorable

Eisai has guided for Leqembi revenue of ¥77B, up 73% YoY. Recent clinical trial setbacks suffered by two large players, J&J and Novo Nordisk...

Tina Banerjee

ABLBio (298380 KS): Funding From Lilly To Strengthen Drug Development Capabilities

ABLBio secured equity investment of KRW22B from Eli Lilly. ABL Bio plans to use the proceeds to advance its core technologies, including bispecific...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Novo Nordisk: Is the FDA Approval of Wegovy Worth an Extra $460 Bn?

In light of the bullish Innovent report, and the ongoing news about new GLP-1s in the pipeline, this "Novo Nordisk - critical analysis" provides a...

daaimon

Innovent Biologics(1801 HK)– More than Just a GLP-1 Play

Mazdutide's strong results will position it well against the competition, and the valuation gap will narrow. The oncology portfolio will continue...

daaimon

The GLP-1 Landscape in Asia

First-gen GLP-1 impact may fall short of hype, demand still strong. Next-gen drugs promise better results, tolerance, price. Expect margin pressure...

daaimon

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Label Expansion Drives Leqembi Ahead; Competitive Landscape Turns Favorable

​Eisai has guided for Leqembi revenue of ¥77B, up 73% YoY. Recent clinical trial setbacks suffered by two large players, J&J and Novo Nordisk...

Tina Banerjee

ABLBio (298380 KS): Funding From Lilly To Strengthen Drug Development Capabilities

ABLBio secured equity investment of KRW22B from Eli Lilly. ABL Bio plans to use the proceeds to advance its core technologies, including bispecific...

Tina Banerjee

Eisai has guided for Leqembi revenue of ¥77B, up 73% YoY. Recent clinical trial setbacks suffered by two large players, J&J and Novo Nordisk...