Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.</li>
<li>The ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.</li>
<li>If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!</li>
</ul>


Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
The ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ddh1-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36022:1" rel="noopener">DDH1 (DDH AU)</a>'s IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perenti-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20505:1" rel="noopener">Perenti Global (PRN AU)</a>’s A$0.1238 cash plus 0.7111 PRN shares for each DDH share offer fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The offer requires DDH1 shareholder approval. Shareholders representing 38.0% of outstanding shares will vote in favour of the scheme.</li>
<li>The low spread points to a done deal. At the last close price and for the 6 October payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.5% and 10.8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



DDH1 (DDH AU)'s IE considers Perenti Global (PRN AU)’s A$0.1238 cash plus 0.7111 PRN shares for each DDH share offer fair and reasonable. 
The offer requires DDH1 shareholder approval. Shareholders representing 38.0% of outstanding shares will vote in favour of the scheme.
The low spread points to a done deal. At the last close price and for the 6 October payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.5% and 10.8%, respectively.


DDH1 (DDH AU): Scheme Meeting on 18 September

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ddh1-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36022:1" rel="noopener">DDH1 (DDH AU)</a> has entered a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perenti-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20505:1" rel="noopener">Perenti Global (PRN AU)</a> at A$0.1238 cash plus 0.7111 PRN shares for each DDH share, a 17.4% premium to DDH’s 5-day VWAP.</li>
<li>The key conditions are shareholder scheme approval and ACCC clearance. Shareholders representing 38.0% of outstanding shares will vote in favour of the scheme.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, and the net exchange ratio is fair on a 1-year basis. A critical risk is volatility risk around PRN shares.  </li>
</ul>



DDH1 (DDH AU) has entered a SID with Perenti Global (PRN AU) at A$0.1238 cash plus 0.7111 PRN shares for each DDH share, a 17.4% premium to DDH’s 5-day VWAP.
The key conditions are shareholder scheme approval and ACCC clearance. Shareholders representing 38.0% of outstanding shares will vote in favour of the scheme.
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, and the net exchange ratio is fair on a 1-year basis. A critical risk is volatility risk around PRN shares.  


DDH1 (DDH AU): Binding Offer from Perenti (PRN AU)

<ul>
<li>Theiss’ offer of A$1.075 per share for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a> has been declared unconditional despite acquiring 44.30% of outstanding shares, below the 50% threshold.</li>
<li>The offer has met with resistance from retail shareholders as it remains below NRW’s rejected offer, and there is a lack of clarity on franking credits. </li>
<li>Thiess can restart on-market purchases from 27 September. The offer closes on 7 October. The shares are trading in line with the offer.</li>
</ul>


Theiss’ offer of A$1.075 per share for MACA Ltd (MLD AU) has been declared unconditional despite acquiring 44.30% of outstanding shares, below the 50% threshold.
The offer has met with resistance from retail shareholders as it remains below NRW’s rejected offer, and there is a lack of clarity on franking credits. 
Thiess can restart on-market purchases from 27 September. The offer closes on 7 October. The shares are trading in line with the offer.


MACA’s A$1.075 Offer from Theiss Declared Unconditional

<ul>
<li>Theiss has improved its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a> offer from A$1.025 to A$1.075 per share. The offer is conditional on 90% minimum acceptances, FIRB approval and no prescribed occurrences.</li>
<li>Theiss increased its shareholding to 15.90% of outstanding shares due to acceptances from MACA founders and directors. This is a stumbling block to a potential <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a> scheme. </li>
<li>While the value of NRW’s default option remains higher than Thiess’ revised offer, it is increasingly unlikely that NRW will start a bidding war. </li>
</ul>


Theiss has improved its MACA Ltd (MLD AU) offer from A$1.025 to A$1.075 per share. The offer is conditional on 90% minimum acceptances, FIRB approval and no prescribed occurrences.
Theiss increased its shareholding to 15.90% of outstanding shares due to acceptances from MACA founders and directors. This is a stumbling block to a potential NRW Holdings (NWH AU) scheme. 
While the value of NRW’s default option remains higher than Thiess’ revised offer, it is increasingly unlikely that NRW will start a bidding war. 


MACA’s Revised Thiess Offer Makes an NRW Rival Offer Increasingly Unlikely

Australia

Emeco Holdings Limited provides commercial equipment rental services. The Company rents earthmoving equipment to the mining industries in Australia and Indonesia.

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Emeco Holdings (EHL AU)

Monday Delight: 10/02/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help...

Contrarian Cashflows

DDH1 (DDH AU): Scheme Meeting on 18 September

The low spread points to a done deal. At the last close price and for the 6 October payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.5% and 10.8%,...

Arun George

DDH1 (DDH AU): Binding Offer from Perenti (PRN AU)

The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, and the net exchange ratio is fair on a 1-year basis. A critical risk is volatility risk around...

Arun George

MACA’s A$1.075 Offer from Theiss Declared Unconditional

The offer declared unconditional is an inducement to get shareholders to accept. The offer closes on 7 October. The shares are trading in line with...

Arun George

MACA’s Revised Thiess Offer Makes an NRW Rival Offer Increasingly Unlikely

The shares are trading marginally through Theiss' revised offer. Theiss' 15.90% stake is likely to deter a rival NRW bid. Buy on any dip below the...

Arun George

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