Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Global J-Gold Miners index represents the performance small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>There will be no index changes for the June 2025 rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one-way flow of US$271mm for the June 2025 rebal, which is a bit lower than normal for a June rebal.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global J-Gold Miners index represents the performance small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be no index changes for the June 2025 rebal event.
We expect one-way flow of US$271mm for the June 2025 rebal, which is a bit lower than normal for a June rebal.


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Under the revised merger terms, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robex-resources-inc-5fcb5aec-772d-4972-be7e-30cad5c02e26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45881:1" rel="noopener">Robex Resources (RBX CN)</a> shareholders would receive 7.862 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a> shares per Robex share (vs 8.667 previously). PDI shareholders get 53.5% of MergerCo.</li>
<li>The Board has declared that Robex's offer is superior to the Perseus scheme's offer. Strangely, on a value basis, the Robex revised offer is still lower than the Perseus offer.</li>
<li>Robex’s offer is mainly superior due to support from major PDI shareholders, who reportedly oppose a <a target="_blank">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a> scheme, thereby lowering the likelihood of a revised Perseus offer. </li>
</ul>


Under the revised merger terms, Robex Resources (RBX CN) shareholders would receive 7.862 Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) shares per Robex share (vs 8.667 previously). PDI shareholders get 53.5% of MergerCo.
The Board has declared that Robex's offer is superior to the Perseus scheme's offer. Strangely, on a value basis, the Robex revised offer is still lower than the Perseus offer.
Robex’s offer is mainly superior due to support from major PDI shareholders, who reportedly oppose a Perseus Mining (PRU AU) scheme, thereby lowering the likelihood of a revised Perseus offer. 


Predictive Discovery (PDI AU): Is Robex’s Revised Offer Really a Superior Proposal?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF</a> will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.
The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
<li>That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.</li>
<li>The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

United Kingdom

Endeavour Mining Corporation is a gold mining company. The Company engages in gold mine production, development and exploration activities in West Africa. Endeavour Mining operates mining projects located in Ghana, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Cote d'Ivoire.

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Endeavour Mining (EDV CN)

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

No changes in the MV Junior Gold Miners' Index, which is a bit unexpected, but there is US$270mm+ to trade one-way on 20 June for the June 2025 rebal.

Travis Lundy

Predictive Discovery (PDI AU): Is Robex’s Revised Offer Really a Superior Proposal?

Robex’s offer is mainly superior due to support from major PDI shareholders, who reportedly oppose a Perseus scheme, thereby lowering the...

Arun George

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

The GDX ETF will change benchmarks at the close on 19 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8%; round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. Adds...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

The change in benchmark for GDX should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The GDX ETF has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index. Estimated turnover...

Brian Freitas

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