Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-panther-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27466:1" rel="noopener">Great Panther (GPL US)</a> is a deletion from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a>. There are a lot of float changes that will result in passive flows.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 3.4% and will result in a one-way trade of US$106m at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Most index constituents have traded poorly over the last few months and the stocks with passive inflows could outperform their peers in the short-term.</li>
</ul>



Great Panther (GPL US) is a deletion from the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US). There are a lot of float changes that will result in passive flows.
One way turnover is estimated at 3.4% and will result in a one-way trade of US$106m at the September rebalance.
Most index constituents have traded poorly over the last few months and the stocks with passive inflows could outperform their peers in the short-term.


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Delete & Plenty of Float Changes

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp-4566bc5d-6053-4c59-9b54-891e37079607" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33288:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold Corp (KGC US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fresnillo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21939:1" rel="noopener">Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsgate-consolidated-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12544:1" rel="noopener">Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN AU)</a>, Dakota Gold are adds; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a> and PGM Gold Mining are deletes.</li>
<li>One way turnover is US$390m and there is a big impact on a lot of stocks due to addition, deletion and float changes. Implementation at the close on 17 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ)</a> was added to the GDXJ in March and rallied over 30% in 4 days since announcement. Buying this time will be even larger.</li>
</ul>



Kinross Gold Corp (KGC US), Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN), Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN AU), Dakota Gold are adds; Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ) and PGM Gold Mining are deletes.
One way turnover is US$390m and there is a big impact on a lot of stocks due to addition, deletion and float changes. Implementation at the close on 17 June.

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ) was added to the GDXJ in March and rallied over 30% in 4 days since announcement. Buying this time will be even larger.


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flows & Impact

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Endeavour will announce its Q321 results on the morning of 11 November and, post quarter end, we are largely reiterating our forecasts for Q321, with the exception of a minute adjustment to the gold price (from US$1,792/oz to US$1,790/oz – see Exhibit 5). In the meantime, Endeavour has announced an ambitious five-year exploration programme to discover 15.0–20.0Moz in the indicated category of resources, while also refinancing its credit lines.

Endeavour will announce its Q321 results on the morning of 11 November and, post quarter end, we are largely reiterating our forecasts for Q321, with the exception of a minute adjustment to the gold price (from US$1,792/oz to US$1,790/oz – see Exhibit 5). In the meantime, Endeavour has announced an ambitious five-year exploration programme to discover 15.0–20.0Moz in the indicated category of resources, while also refinancing its credit lines.

Endeavour Mining - The second five-year plan

At US$0.727/share, Endeavour’s net adjusted EPS, released on 4 August, was unequivocally above both Edison’s and the top end of the range of analysts’ forecasts (of US$0.43–0.65/share) for Q221 (source: Refinitiv, 3 August 2021). Teranga’s assets were reported to have integrated well into the group structure and all seven of its operating mines hit their stride together, as a result of which the company is on target to achieve the top end of its production guidance range of 1,350–1,475koz for the year (see Exhibit 4). An above par interim dividend also suggests a full-year payout above the minimum guided level. Results in Q321 will almost inevitably be adversely affected by the seasonal rains in West Africa. We have now adjusted our forecasts for Endeavour for the remainder of the year in the light of Q221 results (see Exhibit 6), ahead of likely FTSE and MSCI index inclusion in September after MSCI Russell confirmed that it had passed liquidity tests for a company listed in its country of incorporation.

At US$0.727/share, Endeavour’s net adjusted EPS, released on 4 August, was unequivocally above both Edison’s and the top end of the range of analysts’ forecasts (of US$0.43–0.65/share) for Q221 (source: Refinitiv, 3 August 2021). Teranga’s assets were reported to have integrated well into the group structure and all seven of its operating mines hit their stride together, as a result of which the company is on target to achieve the top end of its production guidance range of 1,350–1,475koz for the year (see Exhibit 4). An above par interim dividend also suggests a full-year payout above the minimum guided level. Results in Q321 will almost inevitably be adversely affected by the seasonal rains in West Africa. We have now adjusted our forecasts for Endeavour for the remainder of the year in the light of Q221 results (see Exhibit 6), ahead of likely FTSE and MSCI index inclusion in September after MSCI Russell confirmed that it had passed liquidity tests for a company listed in its country of incorporation.


Endeavour Mining - Q2 outperforms ahead of likely Q3 index inclusion

Endeavour’s premium listing on the LSE brings the largest producer of gold in the second largest gold producing region to London to pick up the mantle vacated by Randgold when it departed these shores in 2018. Like Randgold, Endeavour has set a 20% post-tax IRR hurdle rate from its investments (at a gold price of US$1,300/oz), is targeting a 20% return on capital employed, an AISC of US$900/oz and has recently announced a progressive dividend policy and share buyback programme.

Endeavour’s premium listing on the LSE brings the largest producer of gold in the second largest gold producing region to London to pick up the mantle vacated by Randgold when it departed these shores in 2018. Like Randgold, Endeavour has set a 20% post-tax IRR hurdle rate from its investments (at a gold price of US$1,300/oz), is targeting a 20% return on capital employed, an AISC of US$900/oz and has recently announced a progressive dividend policy and share buyback programme.

United Kingdom

Endeavour Mining Corporation is a gold mining company. The Company engages in gold mine production, development and exploration activities in West Africa. Endeavour Mining operates mining projects located in Ghana, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Cote d'Ivoire.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Endeavour Mining (EDV CN)

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Delete & Plenty of Float Changes

There is only one deletion but there are a lot of stocks with free float changes. Estimated one way turnover is 3.4% resulting in a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flows & Impact

There are 4 adds and 2 deletes for the GDXJ Index resulting in one-way turnover of 10% and a one-way trade of US$390m. BRMS IJ has a big float...

Brian Freitas

Endeavour Mining - The second five-year plan

Endeavour will announce its Q321 results on the morning of 11 November and, post quarter end, we are largely reiterating our forecasts for Q321,...

Edison Investment Research

Endeavour Mining - Q2 outperforms ahead of likely Q3 index inclusion

At US$0.727/share, Endeavour’s net adjusted EPS, released on 4 August, was unequivocally above both Edison’s and the top end of the range of...

Edison Investment Research

Endeavour Mining - Picking up the crown

Endeavour’s premium listing on the LSE brings the largest producer of gold in the second largest gold producing region to London to pick up the...

Edison Investment Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)