Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Asia Group I heavy-neutrals price falls vs ex-tank UAE price since early-August to widest discount in more than two years.</li><li>Wider price-discount facilitates arbitrage to move surplus supplies from Asia to Middle East.</li><li>Asia’s surplus Group I supplies rise amid pick-up in imports from other regions like Europe, as well as recovery in output in markets like Thailand after plant-maintenance work.</li></ul>

Asia Group I heavy-neutrals price falls vs ex-tank UAE price since early-August to widest discount in more than two years.Wider price-discount facilitates arbitrage to move surplus supplies from Asia to Middle East.Asia’s surplus Group I supplies rise amid pick-up in imports from other regions like Europe, as well as recovery in output in markets like Thailand after plant-maintenance work.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 13 October

<ul><li>Global base oils prices mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices amid further drop in crude oil prices.</li><li>Mostly-steady outright base oils prices and lower crude prices cushion impact of strong gasoil premium to crude oil.</li><li>Strong gasoil crack-spread incentivizes any refinery moves to trim output levels to focus more on light grades than heavy grades.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices amid further drop in crude oil prices.Mostly-steady outright base oils prices and lower crude prices cushion impact of strong gasoil premium to crude oil.Strong gasoil crack-spread incentivizes any refinery moves to trim output levels to focus more on light grades than heavy grades.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 13 October

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The sharp rally in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.</li>
<li>The stock is already a member of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX Index</a> and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.</li>
<li>There will be more passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> in April when the liquidity factor in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX Index</a> increases from 0.75 to 1.</li>
</ul>


The sharp rally in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
The stock is already a member of the TOPIX Index and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.
There will be more passive buying in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) in April when the liquidity factor in the TOPIX Index increases from 0.75 to 1.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock

<ul><li>Global base oils prices recover vs feedstock/gasoil prices after crude oil prices reverse recent gains.</li><li>Firmer base oils price-differentials ease pressure on refiners to trim run-rates at time of year when supply often starts to outpace demand.</li><li>Firmer price-differentials coincide with lighter round of plant-maintenance in coming weeks vs H1 2025.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices recover vs feedstock/gasoil prices after crude oil prices reverse recent gains.Firmer base oils price-differentials ease pressure on refiners to trim run-rates at time of year when supply often starts to outpace demand.Firmer price-differentials coincide with lighter round of plant-maintenance in coming weeks vs H1 2025.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 6 October

<ul><li>Global Group I brightstock prices stay unusually high relative to other grades.</li><li>Brightstock price-strength helps to cushion impact of lower prices for lighter-grade base oils, supporting firm Group I base oils margins in markets like Europe.</li><li>Firm Group I base oil margins incentivize refiners to maintain high output.</li></ul>

Global Group I brightstock prices stay unusually high relative to other grades.Brightstock price-strength helps to cushion impact of lower prices for lighter-grade base oils, supporting firm Group I base oils margins in markets like Europe.Firm Group I base oil margins incentivize refiners to maintain high output.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 6 October

Japan

ENEOS Holdings, Inc. operates refining and marketing businesses. The Company refines and distributes petroleum and petroleum chemical products. ENEOS Holdings also provides non ferrous metals, electronic materials, and other products.

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ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 13 October

Asia Group I heavy-neutrals price falls vs ex-tank UAE price since early-August to widest discount in more than two years. Wider price-discount...

Base Oil News

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 13 October

Global base oils prices mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices amid further drop in crude oil prices. Mostly-steady outright base...

Base Oil News

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock

JXAM should be added to a global index in Nov. There will be passive buying from TPX trackers in April. Short interest has increased sharply in the...

Brian Freitas

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 6 October

Global base oils prices recover vs feedstock/gasoil prices after crude oil prices reverse recent gains. Firmer base oils price-differentials ease...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 6 October

Global Group I brightstock prices stay unusually high relative to other grades. Brightstock price-strength helps to cushion impact of lower prices...

Base Oil News

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