Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

<ul>
<li>EA’s Q3 results on 14-November was disappointing as expected on the declining EBITDA.</li>
<li>Criat’s iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit (iRap) still indicates the implied international credit rating of “B+” which gives us relative comfort for the credit.</li>
<li>EA’s story rests on the usage of its network to extend debt maturity and sell assets, and not so much on cashflow which may be generated in the near term. </li>
</ul>


EA’s Q3 results on 14-November was disappointing as expected on the declining EBITDA.
Criat’s iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit (iRap) still indicates the implied international credit rating of “B+” which gives us relative comfort for the credit.
EA’s story rests on the usage of its network to extend debt maturity and sell assets, and not so much on cashflow which may be generated in the near term. 


<ul>
<li>Recent events are credit and spread positive in the near-term for EA.</li>
<li>Q2 results are no surprise while we remain concerned on a declining recurring revenues.</li>
<li>We maintain our stance on no recommendation on EA's THB bonds for the lack of liquidity and reliable quotes.</li>
</ul>


Recent events are credit and spread positive in the near-term for EA.
Q2 results are no surprise while we remain concerned on a declining recurring revenues.
We maintain our stance on no recommendation on EA's THB bonds for the lack of liquidity and reliable quotes.


<ul>
<li>This flash note is an update for our readers on the indicative probability of default for Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA).</li>
<li>We plotted EA’s probability of default, using Criat’s iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit (iRap), against its peers, and we believe the chart indicated a high probability of default still.</li>
<li>Given a lack of reliable bond quotes in the THB bond market, we continue to issue our report on EA without a recommendation.</li>
</ul>


This flash note is an update for our readers on the indicative probability of default for Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA).
We plotted EA’s probability of default, using Criat’s iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit (iRap), against its peers, and we believe the chart indicated a high probability of default still.
Given a lack of reliable bond quotes in the THB bond market, we continue to issue our report on EA without a recommendation.


Energy Absolute: Trying to Be a B+ Credit

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jul 4th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Ptt, PTT E&amp;P, Bangkok Dusit.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jul 4th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Ptt, PTT E&amp;P, Bangkok Dusit.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jul 4th): Ptt, PTT E&P, Bangkok Dusit

<ul>
<li>The EA 248A bond meeting on 9-August produced a consent from bondholders to extend the maturity as per the company’s request.</li>
<li>EA’s CFO announced that the company has secured 3-year credit facilities from 9 financial institutions and Asset Plus Securities Fund Management.</li>
<li>Barring any further negative news , we believe the maturity extension and the long-term bank credit facilities could lead TRIS to at least reverse EA’s credit rating outlook.</li>
</ul>


The EA 248A bond meeting on 9-August produced a consent from bondholders to extend the maturity as per the company’s request.
EA’s CFO announced that the company has secured 3-year credit facilities from 9 financial institutions and Asset Plus Securities Fund Management.
Barring any further negative news , we believe the maturity extension and the long-term bank credit facilities could lead TRIS to at least reverse EA’s credit rating outlook.


Thailand

Energy Absolute Public Company Limited engages in the research, development, and production of biodiesel products in Thailand.

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Energy Absolute (EA TB)

Energy Absolute: Energy Limited

EA's disappointing Q3 results were expected due to declining EBITDA, but Criat's iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit still gives relative comfort for the...

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Energy Absolute: No Tricks and No Treats

Recent events are positive for EA in the short term, but concerns remain about declining recurring revenues, leading to no recommendation on their...

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Energy Absolute: Trying to Be a B+ Credit

Update on Energy Absolute 's probability of default shows high risk compared to peers using iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit. No recommendation due to...

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Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jul 4th): Ptt, PTT E&P, Bangkok Dusit

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Ptt, PTT E&P, Bangkok Dusit.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Energy Absolute: Band Aid Secured

We believe EA's near-term liquidity crunch is nearly over. Barring further negative news, the maturity extension and the bank credit facilities...

Bondcritic

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Energy Absolute: Energy Limited

​EA's disappointing Q3 results were expected due to declining EBITDA, but Criat's iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit still gives relative comfort for the...

Bondcritic

Energy Absolute: No Tricks and No Treats

​Recent events are positive for EA in the short term, but concerns remain about declining recurring revenues, leading to no recommendation on their...

Bondcritic

Energy Absolute: Trying to Be a B+ Credit

​Update on Energy Absolute 's probability of default shows high risk compared to peers using iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit. No recommendation due to...

Bondcritic

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jul 4th): Ptt, PTT E&P, Bangkok Dusit

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Ptt, PTT E&P, Bangkok Dusit.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Energy Absolute: Band Aid Secured

We believe EA's near-term liquidity crunch is nearly over. Barring further negative news, the maturity extension and the bank credit facilities...

Bondcritic

EA's disappointing Q3 results were expected due to declining EBITDA, but Criat's iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit still gives relative comfort for the...

Recent events are positive for EA in the short term, but concerns remain about declining recurring revenues, leading to no recommendation on their...

Update on Energy Absolute 's probability of default shows high risk compared to peers using iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit. No recommendation due to...