Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>We highlight a  commodity sector with  a strong risk-reward ratio</li>
<li>Precious metals have likely just completed Wave B of their correction</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
We highlight a  commodity sector with  a strong risk-reward ratio
Precious metals have likely just completed Wave B of their correction


Overview #41 – Securing Supply, Unlocking Value: Global Themes in Equities and Commodities

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>
Strong YTD performance with volatility: Systematic quantitative equity strategies have strong but volatile performance in 2024, with momentum and reversal factors driving returns, particularly in U.S. technology (AI sectors).</li>
<li>
Key macroeconomic drivers: Interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions (especially involving China), and the upcoming U.S. Presidential election will be major catalysts influencing equity markets through year-end.</li>
<li>
Sector-Specific opportunities: AI-driven tech and consumer discretionary stocks benefit from rate cuts, but overvaluation risks persist. Value and quality sectors in Europe and defensive strategies (e.g. reversal) hedge market corrections.</li>
</ul>



Strong YTD performance with volatility: Systematic quantitative equity strategies have strong but volatile performance in 2024, with momentum and reversal factors driving returns, particularly in U.S. technology (AI sectors).

Key macroeconomic drivers: Interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions (especially involving China), and the upcoming U.S. Presidential election will be major catalysts influencing equity markets through year-end.

Sector-Specific opportunities: AI-driven tech and consumer discretionary stocks benefit from rate cuts, but overvaluation risks persist. Value and quality sectors in Europe and defensive strategies (e.g. reversal) hedge market corrections.


Systematic Quantitative Equity Strategies Outlook: 9/15/24 – Year-End

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.</li>
<li>Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">XLP</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">XLK</a>.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.
The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.
Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the XLP and XLK.


Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

Global X Mlp & Energy Infras / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With oil prices expected to remain under pressure from a persistent supply glut, investors and dealmakers are turning cautious and prioritising capital efficiency.</li>
<li>Private equity-led consolidation in midstream signals growing demand for yield resilience amid falling oil prices and market uncertainty.</li>
<li>MLPX ETF inflows in 2025 highlight investor preference for dependable midstream returns over cyclical energy exposure.</li>
</ul>


With oil prices expected to remain under pressure from a persistent supply glut, investors and dealmakers are turning cautious and prioritising capital efficiency.
Private equity-led consolidation in midstream signals growing demand for yield resilience amid falling oil prices and market uncertainty.
MLPX ETF inflows in 2025 highlight investor preference for dependable midstream returns over cyclical energy exposure.


Capital Shifts Toward Stability as Energy M&A Adapts to Lower Oil Prices

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">Robinhood Markets (HOOD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trade-desk-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26467:1" rel="noopener">Trade Desk (TTD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft (MSFT US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron (CVX)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 constituent changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.
The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US). 
The largest flows are expected in AppLovin (APP), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Trade Desk (TTD), NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT US), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

Overview #41 – Securing Supply, Unlocking Value: Global Themes in Equities and Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Lithium, Japan, precious Metals and the Oil and Gas sector

Rikki Malik

Systematic Quantitative Equity Strategies Outlook: 9/15/24 – Year-End

Design a tactical, long-tilted portfolio to express systematic investing outlook with long-short Smart-Beta, Sector and Region-Specific ETFs.

William Mann

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

Capital Shifts Toward Stability as Energy M&A Adapts to Lower Oil Prices

Investors prioritize capital efficiency and yield resilience in midstream sector amid falling oil prices and market uncertainty.

Mint Finance

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Constituent changes to the S&P500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$19.6bn. AppLovin, Robinhood and Emcor will have more...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Overview #41 – Securing Supply, Unlocking Value: Global Themes in Equities and Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Lithium, Japan, precious Metals and the Oil and Gas sector

Rikki Malik

Systematic Quantitative Equity Strategies Outlook: 9/15/24 – Year-End

Design a tactical, long-tilted portfolio to express systematic investing outlook with long-short Smart-Beta, Sector and Region-Specific ETFs.

William Mann

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

Capital Shifts Toward Stability as Energy M&A Adapts to Lower Oil Prices

​Investors prioritize capital efficiency and yield resilience in midstream sector amid falling oil prices and market uncertainty.

Mint Finance

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Constituent changes to the S&P500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$19.6bn. AppLovin, Robinhood and Emcor will have more...

Brian Freitas

Investors prioritize capital efficiency and yield resilience in midstream sector amid falling oil prices and market uncertainty.