High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.</li><li>This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.</li><li>Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.</li></ul>

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A few weeks back, I posted a chart showing the descending weekly trend line of the S&amp;P 500 index to remind myself that the trend reminds down until price confirms a change in the power trend.</li><li>This week, notable events include the Core CPI print on Tuesday, Fed press release and meeting on Wednesday, retail sales on Thursday, and S&amp;P flash Services and Manufacturing PMI on Friday.</li><li>As of today, while a favorable inflation and Fed meeting could change things, the rejection of the S&amp;P 500 again at the descending trend line and a hold of the 200 day moving average, suggests that the next leg lower could be in order similar to other bear market rallies so far this year.</li></ul>

A few weeks back, I posted a chart showing the descending weekly trend line of the S&amp;P 500 index to remind myself that the trend reminds down until price confirms a change in the power trend.This week, notable events include the Core CPI print on Tuesday, Fed press release and meeting on Wednesday, retail sales on Thursday, and S&amp;P flash Services and Manufacturing PMI on Friday.As of today, while a favorable inflation and Fed meeting could change things, the rejection of the S&amp;P 500 again at the descending trend line and a hold of the 200 day moving average, suggests that the next leg lower could be in order similar to other bear market rallies so far this year.

<ul><li>Last week, I spent some time outlining how incoming data appears to beginning to show that certain overheated pockets of the economy are seeing signs of moderation and may be slowly returning to pre-pandemic price trends.</li><li>With the Federal Reserve hiking 75bps this past week, most of the market commentary and analysis I have seen focuses on how many 75bps hikes the Fed needs to do the rest of the year in order to tame inflation.</li><li>After this last interest rate hike, commentators are almost unanimously convinced the Federal Reserve will tighten us into a recession in order to shakeout inflation and that a “soft landing” just is not possible because the Fed was already so far behind the curve with its monetary policy stance. </li></ul>

Last week, I spent some time outlining how incoming data appears to beginning to show that certain overheated pockets of the economy are seeing signs of moderation and may be slowly returning to pre-pandemic price trends.With the Federal Reserve hiking 75bps this past week, most of the market commentary and analysis I have seen focuses on how many 75bps hikes the Fed needs to do the rest of the year in order to tame inflation.After this last interest rate hike, commentators are almost unanimously convinced the Federal Reserve will tighten us into a recession in order to shakeout inflation and that a “soft landing” just is not possible because the Fed was already so far behind the curve with its monetary policy stance. 

These days, it seems to me that the business media and Twitter is all consumed with predicting when a U.S. economic recession will occur coupled with lots of predictions of whether each strong relief bounce we have in the market is “the bottom”.This past week, big box retailers like Target and Walmart saw big drawdowns after margins were impacted by rising shipping and labor costs while facing extremely difficult year-over-year comparatives.Given the current market drawdown, I also get the sense now that the emerging consensus and narrative of an imminent “crash” recession is what I call “one side of the boat” thinking which the market has a habit of doing the opposite.

These days, it seems to me that the business media and Twitter is all consumed with predicting when a U.S. economic recession will occur coupled with lots of predictions of whether each strong relief bounce we have in the market is “the bottom”.This past week, big box retailers like Target and Walmart saw big drawdowns after margins were impacted by rising shipping and labor costs while facing extremely difficult year-over-year comparatives.Given the current market drawdown, I also get the sense now that the emerging consensus and narrative of an imminent “crash” recession is what I call “one side of the boat” thinking which the market has a habit of doing the opposite.

<ul><li>Lost in all the hoopla of the annual Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting this past year was the significant investments Warren Buffett has made over the past 6 months in the oil and gas energy sector.</li><li>MGP Ingredients, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients.</li><li>The Chemours Company provides performance chemicals in North America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America</li></ul>

Lost in all the hoopla of the annual Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting this past year was the significant investments Warren Buffett has made over the past 6 months in the oil and gas energy sector.MGP Ingredients, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients.The Chemours Company provides performance chemicals in North America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

Fallacy Alarm's Elevator Pitch Party

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate...

Fallacy Alarm

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 12/12

A few weeks back, I posted a chart showing the descending weekly trend line of the S&P 500 index to remind myself that the trend reminds down until...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 6/20

Last week, I spent some time outlining how incoming data appears to beginning to show that certain overheated pockets of the economy are seeing...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 5/23

These days, it seems to me that the business media and Twitter is all consumed with predicting when a U.S. economic recession will occur coupled...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bullfinder- Week of 5/9

I hope everyone had a nice weekend! Uncle Warren Goes “All In” With Energy Lost in all the hoopla of the annual Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

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