Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Greetings from Copenhagen! We’ll take a look at freight rates, copper, and crude from an inflation angle.</li><li>But before we do that, let’s have a quick look at Henry Hub.</li><li>The front-month Henry Hub natural gas prices continue to face downward pressure, primarily influenced by an abundance in gas stock levels.</li></ul>

Greetings from Copenhagen! We’ll take a look at freight rates, copper, and crude from an inflation angle.But before we do that, let’s have a quick look at Henry Hub.The front-month Henry Hub natural gas prices continue to face downward pressure, primarily influenced by an abundance in gas stock levels.

Energy Cable: Increases in freight rates not transferring into goods inflation (for now)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).</li>
<li>Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.</li>
<li>We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).
Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.
We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.


Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Freight rates are rising again and it will likely impact USD inflation in Q2 already.</li><li>The Saudis are trying to bring back the oil bulls via keeping the market tight. '</li><li>Our models are close to entering a long oil bet again..</li></ul>

Freight rates are rising again and it will likely impact USD inflation in Q2 already.The Saudis are trying to bring back the oil bulls via keeping the market tight. 'Our models are close to entering a long oil bet again..

Energy Cable: Saudis are pushing hard for a new oil bull market

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly portfolio watch.</li><li>A slightly positive week for our macro portfolio, which after a couple of days of sell-off in equities have gained ground again after the FOMC meeting Wednesday, revealing the Fed’s intend of lowering the monthly redemption cap on USTs from USD 60 bn. to USD 25 bn.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">The slight dovish narrative is back in market pricing, and the mix of dovish central bank vibes and added liquidity will likely rule markets in the coming weeks, as economic data from the US will continue its run.</span></li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly portfolio watch.A slightly positive week for our macro portfolio, which after a couple of days of sell-off in equities have gained ground again after the FOMC meeting Wednesday, revealing the Fed’s intend of lowering the monthly redemption cap on USTs from USD 60 bn. to USD 25 bn.The slight dovish narrative is back in market pricing, and the mix of dovish central bank vibes and added liquidity will likely rule markets in the coming weeks, as economic data from the US will continue its run.

Portfolio Watch – Time for liquidity bets

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning/sentiment overview!Equity sentiment has soured a bit since we last spoke, with broad US traded ETF fund flows sent back into solid negative territory after a stunning start to the year.</li><li>While most of it is due to the tax-season in April, the hawkish repricing of global central banks has also played its part in normalizing the über-bullish sentiment in US equities, with markets now also biting their nails as an ECB June cut is no longer a certainty.</li><li>Chart 1: Rolling monthly US ETF fund flowsAfter a couple of weeks of outflows from XLE, the reflation bet is back on track with around 500 mn.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning/sentiment overview!Equity sentiment has soured a bit since we last spoke, with broad US traded ETF fund flows sent back into solid negative territory after a stunning start to the year.While most of it is due to the tax-season in April, the hawkish repricing of global central banks has also played its part in normalizing the über-bullish sentiment in US equities, with markets now also biting their nails as an ECB June cut is no longer a certainty.Chart 1: Rolling monthly US ETF fund flowsAfter a couple of weeks of outflows from XLE, the reflation bet is back on track with around 500 mn.

Positioning Watch – Prepare for further action in JPY pairs

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

Energy Cable: Increases in freight rates not transferring into goods inflation (for now)

Greetings from Copenhagen! We’ll take a look at freight rates, copper, and crude from an inflation angle. But before we do that, let’s have a...

Steno Research

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight Despite Still Being Bullish on $XBI....

Vermilion Research

Energy Cable: Saudis are pushing hard for a new oil bull market

Take aways:Freight rates are rising again and it will likely impact USD inflation in Q2 alreadyThe Saudis are trying to bring back the oil bulls...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch – Time for liquidity bets

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly portfolio watch. A slightly positive week for our macro portfolio, which after a couple of days of...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Prepare for further action in JPY pairs

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning/sentiment overview!Equity sentiment has soured a bit since we last spoke, with broad US...

Steno Research

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