Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P500 INDEX</a> and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$16.3bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>The Select Sector index trackers and S&amp;P500 Equal Weight trackers will need to buy the adds to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P500 INDEX</a> and sell the deletes, further increasing flow for the stocks.</li>
<li>The flows will change over the next week as stock prices move around, and final capping is done after the close on 14 March.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P500 INDEX and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$16.3bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.
The Select Sector index trackers and S&amp;P500 Equal Weight trackers will need to buy the adds to the S&amp;P500 INDEX and sell the deletes, further increasing flow for the stocks.
The flows will change over the next week as stock prices move around, and final capping is done after the close on 14 March.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$16.3bn Trade; Big Impact for EXE, TKO

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index for the March rebalance will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>There will also be capping changes for the Select Sector indices that will result in a round-trip trade of US$13.1bn. Constituent changes will add to that flow.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electronic-arts-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1179:1" rel="noopener">Electronic Arts</a>. Largest outflows are from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linde-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35233:1" rel="noopener">Linde</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcdonald-s-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1425:1" rel="noopener">Mcdonald's Corp</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/take-two-interactive-software-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14948:1" rel="noopener">Take Two Interactive</a>.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index for the March rebalance will be announced after market close on Friday.
There will also be capping changes for the Select Sector indices that will result in a round-trip trade of US$13.1bn. Constituent changes will add to that flow.
The largest inflows will be in Amazon.com, Tesla, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet (GOOGL US) and Electronic Arts. Largest outflows are from Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Linde, Mcdonald's Corp and Take Two Interactive.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & US$13bn Trade

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Saudi Aramco’s Q4 revenue is expected to fall 2.6% QoQ but rise by 10.6% YoY, while its EPS is anticipated to drop 7.5% QoQ and 11.9% YoY.</li>
<li>With OPEC likely extending supply cuts past April 2025, Saudi Aramco has little room to raise output, leaving growth largely dependent on oil prices.</li>
<li>Aramco acquired a 25% stake in Unioil Petroleum Philippines, expanding its retail presence, and partnered with Linde and Schlumberger to develop a major CCS hub.</li>
</ul>


Saudi Aramco’s Q4 revenue is expected to fall 2.6% QoQ but rise by 10.6% YoY, while its EPS is anticipated to drop 7.5% QoQ and 11.9% YoY.
With OPEC likely extending supply cuts past April 2025, Saudi Aramco has little room to raise output, leaving growth largely dependent on oil prices.
Aramco acquired a 25% stake in Unioil Petroleum Philippines, expanding its retail presence, and partnered with Linde and Schlumberger to develop a major CCS hub.


[Earnings Preview] Aramco to Face Pressure in Q4 as Weak Oil Prices Squeeze Margins

<ul>
<li>Occidental’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 2.6% and 9.5% YoY, with full-year 2024 declines of 3.8% and 10%, respectively.</li>
<li>Occidental's average realised worldwide oil price dropped by 7.4% QoQ and 11.6% YoY to USD 69.73/b. Conversely, its average realised global NGL price rose by 6.5% QoQ and 4.2% YoY.</li>
<li>The STRATOS plant, one of the largest DAC projects globally, will begin operations by mid-2025. It is expected to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.</li>
</ul>


Occidental’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 2.6% and 9.5% YoY, with full-year 2024 declines of 3.8% and 10%, respectively.
Occidental's average realised worldwide oil price dropped by 7.4% QoQ and 11.6% YoY to USD 69.73/b. Conversely, its average realised global NGL price rose by 6.5% QoQ and 4.2% YoY.
The STRATOS plant, one of the largest DAC projects globally, will begin operations by mid-2025. It is expected to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.


[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices to Pressure Occidental in Q4 While NGL Prices Offer Support

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively. For 2024, revenue is projected to drop 8.2% while EPS is estimated to fall 30.3%. </li>
<li>BP anticipates weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity to impact profits by USD 100–300 million QoQ, with oil trading performance also expected to decline.</li>
<li>BP's refining marker margin dropped 20% QoQ in Q4 to USD 13.1, marking its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, upstream production is expected to fall sequentially.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively. For 2024, revenue is projected to drop 8.2% while EPS is estimated to fall 30.3%. 
BP anticipates weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity to impact profits by USD 100–300 million QoQ, with oil trading performance also expected to decline.
BP's refining marker margin dropped 20% QoQ in Q4 to USD 13.1, marking its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, upstream production is expected to fall sequentially.


[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$16.3bn Trade; Big Impact for EXE, TKO

Constituent changes to the S&P500 and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$16.3bn for the Select Sector. ECE, DASH, AMZN, TKO, TSLA,...

Brian Freitas

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & US$13bn Trade

Capping changes for the Select Sector indices will result in a round-trip trade of US$13bn. Constituent changes will be announced after market...

Brian Freitas

[Earnings Preview] Aramco to Face Pressure in Q4 as Weak Oil Prices Squeeze Margins

Saudi Aramco's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to dip QoQ, but rise YoY. Growth reliant on oil prices as OPEC extends supply cuts. Expanding retail...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices to Pressure Occidental in Q4 While NGL Prices Offer Support

Occidental's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline due to weak oil prices. However, higher gas and NGL prices to cushion impact. STRATOS plant...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$16.3bn Trade; Big Impact for EXE, TKO

Constituent changes to the S&P500 and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$16.3bn for the Select Sector. ECE, DASH, AMZN, TKO, TSLA,...

Brian Freitas

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & US$13bn Trade

Capping changes for the Select Sector indices will result in a round-trip trade of US$13bn. Constituent changes will be announced after market...

Brian Freitas

[Earnings Preview] Aramco to Face Pressure in Q4 as Weak Oil Prices Squeeze Margins

​Saudi Aramco's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to dip QoQ, but rise YoY. Growth reliant on oil prices as OPEC extends supply cuts. Expanding retail...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices to Pressure Occidental in Q4 While NGL Prices Offer Support

​Occidental's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline due to weak oil prices. However, higher gas and NGL prices to cushion impact. STRATOS plant...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

​BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

Mint Finance

Saudi Aramco's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to dip QoQ, but rise YoY. Growth reliant on oil prices as OPEC extends supply cuts. Expanding retail...

Occidental's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline due to weak oil prices. However, higher gas and NGL prices to cushion impact. STRATOS plant...

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...