Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>US Group II base oils price-premium to VGO rebounds after fall in crude oil prices.</li><li>Excluding brief dip in June 2025, base oils margins hold in narrow range since early April 2025.</li><li>US Group II domestic and export base oils price-premium to VGO rises in Q2 2025 from Q1 2025.</li></ul>

US Group II base oils price-premium to VGO rebounds after fall in crude oil prices.Excluding brief dip in June 2025, base oils margins hold in narrow range since early April 2025.US Group II domestic and export base oils price-premium to VGO rises in Q2 2025 from Q1 2025.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June

<ul><li>US base oils demand could stay cautious amid signs of sufficient supplies to cover domestic requirements.</li><li>Expectations of sufficient supply and seasonal slowdown in demand give buyers more leverage to hold back in face of recent volatility of crude oil prices and base oils margins.</li><li>Buyers face challenge of balancing prospect of slowdown in demand in Q3 2025 with risk of weather-related supply disruptions.</li></ul>

US base oils demand could stay cautious amid signs of sufficient supplies to cover domestic requirements.Expectations of sufficient supply and seasonal slowdown in demand give buyers more leverage to hold back in face of recent volatility of crude oil prices and base oils margins.Buyers face challenge of balancing prospect of slowdown in demand in Q3 2025 with risk of weather-related supply disruptions.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Active UK funds continue to reduce their exposure to the Energy sector, with positioning falling to near record lows. </li>
<li>The UK Energy sector is dominated by just two names— Shell and BP  —which together account for 90% of the total sector allocation.</li>
<li>UK Industrials, Financials, and Consumer sectors have become increasingly dominant, with Energy’s diminished role reflecting a shift in market structure and a redefinition of what drives UK equity portfolios.</li>
</ul>


Active UK funds continue to reduce their exposure to the Energy sector, with positioning falling to near record lows. 
The UK Energy sector is dominated by just two names— Shell and BP  —which together account for 90% of the total sector allocation.
UK Industrials, Financials, and Consumer sectors have become increasingly dominant, with Energy’s diminished role reflecting a shift in market structure and a redefinition of what drives UK equity portfolios.


UK Energy:  Concentrated, Under-Owned, and Out of Focus

<ul><li>Global base oils prices extend fall vs competing/feedstock prices following surge in crude oil prices.</li><li>Rising diesel premium to crude oil magnifies pressure on base oils prices.</li><li>Speed of fall in base oils price differentials suggests surge in crude prices rather than weaker supply-demand fundamentals is key factor driving lower margins.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices extend fall vs competing/feedstock prices following surge in crude oil prices.Rising diesel premium to crude oil magnifies pressure on base oils prices.Speed of fall in base oils price differentials suggests surge in crude prices rather than weaker supply-demand fundamentals is key factor driving lower margins.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 23 June

<ul><li>Global base oils price differentials fall sharply relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices in June 2025 following surge in crude oil prices.</li><li>Speed and size of fall in base oils margins reflects more the surge in crude oil prices rather than sudden, unexpected change in base oils supply-demand fundamentals.</li><li>Lack of any sudden, unexpected change in supply-demand fundamentals could support reversion of base oils margins closer to their higher levels in early-June 2025 before their slump in recent weeks.</li></ul>

Global base oils price differentials fall sharply relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices in June 2025 following surge in crude oil prices.Speed and size of fall in base oils margins reflects more the surge in crude oil prices rather than sudden, unexpected change in base oils supply-demand fundamentals.Lack of any sudden, unexpected change in supply-demand fundamentals could support reversion of base oils margins closer to their higher levels in early-June 2025 before their slump in recent weeks.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 23 June

Italy

Eni SpA explores for and produces hydrocarbons in Italy, Africa, the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, Kazakhstan, and Australia. The Company both produces natural gas and imports it for sale in Italy and elsewhere in Europe. Eni transports natural gas in pipelines. The Company generates and trades electricity, refines oil, and operates gasoline service stations.

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Eni SpA (ENI IM)

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June

US Group II base oils price-premium to VGO rebounds after fall in crude oil prices. Excluding brief dip in June 2025, base oils margins hold in...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June

US base oils demand could stay cautious amid signs of sufficient supplies to cover domestic requirements. Expectations of sufficient supply and...

Base Oil News

UK Energy: Concentrated, Under-Owned, and Out of Focus

Active UK equity funds continue to reduce their exposure to the Energy sector, with positioning falling to near record lows.

Steven Holden

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 23 June

Global base oils prices extend fall vs competing/feedstock prices following surge in crude oil prices. Rising diesel premium to crude oil...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 23 June

Global base oils price differentials fall sharply relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices in June 2025 following surge in crude oil...

Base Oil News

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