Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The impact of concerns over the tourism situation, which may escalate following the repatriation of Uyghurs to China in late February, is expected to be limited owing to the following factors: i) The proportion of tourists from the US and Japan, which have issued travel advisories for Thailand, is low at only 6% of total tourists.</li><li>ii) The government plans to revive the "We Travel Together" scheme during the low season (May-September), helping to mitigate the potential impact of the Uyghur issue, which is expected to affect the same period; historically, tourism conditions tend to normalize within 3-4 months after any unrest or unusual incidents.</li><li>iii) Stock prices typically decline and underperform the SET slightly at -2% to -3% in the one-week to two-month period following such events. </li></ul>

The impact of concerns over the tourism situation, which may escalate following the repatriation of Uyghurs to China in late February, is expected to be limited owing to the following factors: i) The proportion of tourists from the US and Japan, which have issued travel advisories for Thailand, is low at only 6% of total tourists.ii) The government plans to revive the "We Travel Together" scheme during the low season (May-September), helping to mitigate the potential impact of the Uyghur issue, which is expected to affect the same period; historically, tourism conditions tend to normalize within 3-4 months after any unrest or unusual incidents.iii) Stock prices typically decline and underperform the SET slightly at -2% to -3% in the one-week to two-month period following such events. 

Tourism and Airline Sectors - Expect Limited Impact from Uyghur Repatriation

<ul><li>Most Asian bourses rebounded, helping the SET recover, with a buying force flowing into ADVANC, CPALL, GULF, and INTUCH, creating a robust trading atmosphere.</li><li>This was further supported by the positive news of the MPC cutting interest rates in the afternoon, which accelerated the index's rise despite the decline in banking and oil shares.</li><li>The SET surged strongly, with the RSI recovering from the oversold zone and the stochastic climbing, while the index approached the 5- day EMA line at 1,233 points. </li></ul>

Most Asian bourses rebounded, helping the SET recover, with a buying force flowing into ADVANC, CPALL, GULF, and INTUCH, creating a robust trading atmosphere.This was further supported by the positive news of the MPC cutting interest rates in the afternoon, which accelerated the index's rise despite the decline in banking and oil shares.The SET surged strongly, with the RSI recovering from the oversold zone and the stochastic climbing, while the index approached the 5- day EMA line at 1,233 points. 

<ul><li>The SET sank significantly, ranking second after the Indian market, as there were no new driving factors.</li><li>Disappointment with the 4Q24 earnings, particularly the declines in AOT, GULF, INTUCH, TRUE, and banking stocks, led investors to delay their investments, causing the index to hit new lows easily.</li><li>The index fell below 1,236 points. The further it moves along the BB bottom line, the higher the risk of a retreat to 1,220-1,200 points. </li></ul>

The SET sank significantly, ranking second after the Indian market, as there were no new driving factors.Disappointment with the 4Q24 earnings, particularly the declines in AOT, GULF, INTUCH, TRUE, and banking stocks, led investors to delay their investments, causing the index to hit new lows easily.The index fell below 1,236 points. The further it moves along the BB bottom line, the higher the risk of a retreat to 1,220-1,200 points. 

<ul><li>The Thai stock market has declined sharply by 14.8% from its 2024 peak, making Thai equities attractive from a valuation perspective.</li><li>This is reflected in the widening market risk premium (MRP), which is now approaching +2 S.D. above the historical average.</li><li>In addition, the potential turnaround of the SET Index should be supported by foreign investment inflows, following a drop in the 10Y bond yield to levels near the policy rate. </li></ul>

The Thai stock market has declined sharply by 14.8% from its 2024 peak, making Thai equities attractive from a valuation perspective.This is reflected in the widening market risk premium (MRP), which is now approaching +2 S.D. above the historical average.In addition, the potential turnaround of the SET Index should be supported by foreign investment inflows, following a drop in the 10Y bond yield to levels near the policy rate. 

Special Report: Pressure Makes Diamonds - February 17, 2025

<ul><li>We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism demand, which could offset a weaker performance in the F&amp;B business where same-store-sales growth (SSSG) has not improved.</li><li>We expect MINT to show the most notable growth both YoY and QoQ, benefiting from the high tourism season, as tourist numbers in Europe typically peak in 3Q24E, alongside major events such as the Euro Cup and the Olympics in Paris.</li><li>CENTEL’s growth is expected to follow MINT’s trend, with potential YoY growth but a QoQ decline due to pre-operating expenses for its two new hotels in the Maldives, estimated at around Bt80mn in 3Q24E out of a total of Bt250mn. </li></ul>

We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism demand, which could offset a weaker performance in the F&amp;B business where same-store-sales growth (SSSG) has not improved.We expect MINT to show the most notable growth both YoY and QoQ, benefiting from the high tourism season, as tourist numbers in Europe typically peak in 3Q24E, alongside major events such as the Euro Cup and the Olympics in Paris.CENTEL’s growth is expected to follow MINT’s trend, with potential YoY growth but a QoQ decline due to pre-operating expenses for its two new hotels in the Maldives, estimated at around Bt80mn in 3Q24E out of a total of Bt250mn. 

Industry Update - Tourism Sector - September 6, 2024

Thailand

The Erawan Group is a Thai hospitality company that invests in, develops, and operates hotels across luxury, midscale, economy, and budget segments, primarily in Thailand, the Philippines, and Japan. The company also engages in building rental and management, including commercial retail properties and office buildings. It was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Erawan Group (ERW TB)

Tourism and Airline Sectors - Expect Limited Impact from Uyghur Repatriation

We maintain a Neutral view on the sector and select CENTEL as the top pick (Outperform; TP at Bt39.00), given its stronger-than-peer earnings...

Krungthai XSpring

Technical Analysis - FEBRUARY 27, 2025

Most Asian bourses rebounded, helping the SET recover, with a buying force flowing into ADVANC, CPALL, GULF, and INTUCH, creating a robust trading...

Krungthai XSpring

Technical Analysis - February 25, 2025

The SET sank significantly, ranking second after the Indian market, as there were no new driving factors. Disappointment with the 4Q24 earnings,...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: Pressure Makes Diamonds - February 17, 2025

The Thai stock market has declined sharply by 14.8% from its 2024 peak, making Thai equities attractive from a valuation perspective.

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update - Tourism Sector - September 6, 2024

We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism...

Krungthai XSpring

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