Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The weakness in DELTA and ADVANC, along with a lack of new market catalysts, weighed on the SET.</li><li>However, the index appears to have raised its support zone to 1,271–1,260 points, up from the previous 1,250–1,230 range.</li><li>We therefore maintain our buy-on-dips, sell-on-rallies strategy, as the index still has limited upside and requires a clearer bullish confirmation.</li></ul>

The weakness in DELTA and ADVANC, along with a lack of new market catalysts, weighed on the SET.However, the index appears to have raised its support zone to 1,271–1,260 points, up from the previous 1,250–1,230 range.We therefore maintain our buy-on-dips, sell-on-rallies strategy, as the index still has limited upside and requires a clearer bullish confirmation.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. December 4, 2025

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect 2Q25E core profit to decline both YoY and QoQ due to seasonal factors and a slowdown in Chinese tourist arrivals.</li><li>Looking ahead, we anticipate that the performance will remain weak in 2H25E-2026E, as the company begins partial renovations of the Grand Hyatt Erawan (GHE), which remains an overhanging issue owing to its land lease renewal being on a year-to-year basis, with the current lease set to expire in June 2025.</li><li>We maintain our Neutral rating and the fair value of Bt2.58, based on a required return of 6.1%. </li></ul>

We expect 2Q25E core profit to decline both YoY and QoQ due to seasonal factors and a slowdown in Chinese tourist arrivals.Looking ahead, we anticipate that the performance will remain weak in 2H25E-2026E, as the company begins partial renovations of the Grand Hyatt Erawan (GHE), which remains an overhanging issue owing to its land lease renewal being on a year-to-year basis, with the current lease set to expire in June 2025.We maintain our Neutral rating and the fair value of Bt2.58, based on a required return of 6.1%. 

The Erawan Group - Expect Soft 2Q25E Earnings...

<ul><li>Core profit has been revised downward to reflect a decline in Chinese tourist arrivals and the impact of the earthquake.</li><li>1Q25E core profit is expected to be weak, alongside a soft outlook for 2Q-3Q25E.</li><li>The scheduled partial renovation of the Grand Hyatt Erawan (which contributes 15% of total hotel revenue) from late 3Q25 to 4Q26 is also expected to weigh on the long-term performance, resulting in an estimated -2% CAGR in core profit — below the industry average.</li></ul>

Core profit has been revised downward to reflect a decline in Chinese tourist arrivals and the impact of the earthquake.1Q25E core profit is expected to be weak, alongside a soft outlook for 2Q-3Q25E.The scheduled partial renovation of the Grand Hyatt Erawan (which contributes 15% of total hotel revenue) from late 3Q25 to 4Q26 is also expected to weigh on the long-term performance, resulting in an estimated -2% CAGR in core profit — below the industry average.

ERW - 2Q25E to Be Negatively Impacted by Lower Chinese Tourist Arrivals..

<ul><li>We downgrade our rating to Neutral while maintaining the fair value at Bt4.88, based on a required return of 3.9%.</li><li>We remain positive on the fundamentals, as the market price implies a significant upside of 47% to the fair value. However, our tactical outlook remains neutral</li><li>We have a negative view on the long-term performance for 2025- 27E, with a CAGR of -1%, which is lower than the industry average (previously in line with the industry, based on the 2024-26E CAGR of +9%). </li></ul>

We downgrade our rating to Neutral while maintaining the fair value at Bt4.88, based on a required return of 3.9%.We remain positive on the fundamentals, as the market price implies a significant upside of 47% to the fair value. However, our tactical outlook remains neutralWe have a negative view on the long-term performance for 2025- 27E, with a CAGR of -1%, which is lower than the industry average (previously in line with the industry, based on the 2024-26E CAGR of +9%). 

The Erawan Group - Upbeat 4Q24 Earnings Due to Good GPM

<ul><li>Tourist arrivals in 2026–27E are expected to recover gradually, with cautious growth of 4% and 3% YoY, returning to 2024 levels but still below the 2019 peak due to a sluggish Chinese economy, a stronger baht that reduces the impact of government tourism stimulus, and only a small benefit from Chinese tourists shifting destinations amid China–Japan tensions.</li><li>Tourist arrivals in 2025E are expected to fall 7.3% YoY.</li><li>In the short term, however, we expect some positive impact from Thailand hosting the 2025 SEA Games during 9–20 December 2025, which should help lift short-haul tourist arrivals.</li></ul>

Tourist arrivals in 2026–27E are expected to recover gradually, with cautious growth of 4% and 3% YoY, returning to 2024 levels but still below the 2019 peak due to a sluggish Chinese economy, a stronger baht that reduces the impact of government tourism stimulus, and only a small benefit from Chinese tourists shifting destinations amid China–Japan tensions.Tourist arrivals in 2025E are expected to fall 7.3% YoY.In the short term, however, we expect some positive impact from Thailand hosting the 2025 SEA Games during 9–20 December 2025, which should help lift short-haul tourist arrivals.

Tourism: Tourist Arrivals Are Unlikely To Recover In The Near Term. - Neutral

Thailand

The Erawan Group Public Company Limited develops and operates luxurious hotels, office buildings and shopping centers in the heart of Bangkok.

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Erawan Group (ERW TB)

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. December 4, 2025

The weakness in DELTA and ADVANC, along with a lack of new market catalysts, weighed on the SET.However, the index appears to have raised its...

Krungthai XSpring

The Erawan Group - Expect Soft 2Q25E Earnings...

We expect 2Q25E core profit to decline both YoY and QoQ due to seasonal factors and a slowdown in Chinese tourist arrivals.

Krungthai XSpring

ERW - 2Q25E to Be Negatively Impacted by Lower Chinese Tourist Arrivals..

Core profit has been revised downward to reflect a decline in Chinese tourist arrivals and the impact of the earthquake. 1Q25E core profit is...

Krungthai XSpring

The Erawan Group - Upbeat 4Q24 Earnings Due to Good GPM

We remain positive on the fundamentals, as the market price implies a significant upside of 47% to the fair value. However, our tactical outlook...

Krungthai XSpring

Tourism: Tourist Arrivals Are Unlikely To Recover In The Near Term. - Neutral

In the short term, however, we expect some positive impact from Thailand hosting the 2025 SEA Games during 9–20 December 2025, which should help...

Krungthai XSpring

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