Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-finance-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13579:1" rel="noopener">Power Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astral-poly-technik-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7890:1" rel="noopener">Astral</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-first-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26934:1" rel="noopener">IDFC First Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cummins-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7365:1" rel="noopener">Cummins India</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/supreme-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11443:1" rel="noopener">Supreme Industries</a> have all run up over the recent past and have investor attention.</li>
<li>The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.</li>
<li>We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.</li>
</ul>



Power Finance, Astral, IDFC First Bank, Cummins India, HDFC Asset Management, Ashok Leyland, Polycab India and Supreme Industries have all run up over the recent past and have investor attention.
The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.
We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.


India - Positioning on Some Interesting Names

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><ul><li>In Q1FY24, All OEMs under our coverage are likely to report margin expansion on a YoY basis (+260 bps YoY expansion).</li><li>On a QoQ basis, we forecast margin expansion for TVS/Bajaj in the 2W segment, which will be driven by higher export volume and a better product mix.</li><li>We also foresee margin improvement in Escorts Kubota with a 7% QoQ increase in tractor sales and RM tailwinds.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>

In Q1FY24, All OEMs under our coverage are likely to report margin expansion on a YoY basis (+260 bps YoY expansion).On a QoQ basis, we forecast margin expansion for TVS/Bajaj in the 2W segment, which will be driven by higher export volume and a better product mix.We also foresee margin improvement in Escorts Kubota with a 7% QoQ increase in tractor sales and RM tailwinds.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to trigger index changes in the next few days and we take a look at our expectations for these intra-review changes.</li>
<li>Apart from that, I see no other changes for SENSEX in December 2023. However, there could be up to six changes for both BSE 100 and BSE 200.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to trigger index changes in the next few days and we take a look at our expectations for these intra-review changes.
Apart from that, I see no other changes for SENSEX in December 2023. However, there could be up to six changes for both BSE 100 and BSE 200.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​SENSEX Dec 23: HDFC Intra-Review Replacements & Other Expected Changes

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>May’23 Wholesale Volumes: Domestic 2W dispatches stood strong, PV up YoY (flat MoM) while CV/Tractor sales were mixed: The Domestic 2W industry reported strong growth of ~27% YoY (albeit on a low base), even with some recovery evident on an MoM basis (up 18% MoM).</li><li>2W exports remained weak YoY, but has improved MoM (Bajaj and TVS exports up by 6-7% MoM).</li><li>The domestic PV industry reported a robust 16% YoY growth (flat MoM) despite a few OEMs having reported production constraints (M&amp;M and Maruti pointed towards chip shortages).  </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

May’23 Wholesale Volumes: Domestic 2W dispatches stood strong, PV up YoY (flat MoM) while CV/Tractor sales were mixed: The Domestic 2W industry reported strong growth of ~27% YoY (albeit on a low base), even with some recovery evident on an MoM basis (up 18% MoM).2W exports remained weak YoY, but has improved MoM (Bajaj and TVS exports up by 6-7% MoM).The domestic PV industry reported a robust 16% YoY growth (flat MoM) despite a few OEMs having reported production constraints (M&amp;M and Maruti pointed towards chip shortages).  Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Monthly Volume Update - Automotive Industry

<ul><li>We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT of Auto OEMs under our coverage to grow at 19%/29%/29% YoY in Q4FY23.</li><li>On a sequential basis, too, we expect Auto OEMs to register a growth of 8%/11%/11%, which would be led by double-digit volume growth in the PV/CV segment (though this will be partially offset by lower 2W sales on account of lower exports).</li><li>EBITDA margins are expected to expand both YoY/QoQ due to a richer product mix, absorption of price hikes, and marginally lower RM costs.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT of Auto OEMs under our coverage to grow at 19%/29%/29% YoY in Q4FY23.On a sequential basis, too, we expect Auto OEMs to register a growth of 8%/11%/11%, which would be led by double-digit volume growth in the PV/CV segment (though this will be partially offset by lower 2W sales on account of lower exports).EBITDA margins are expected to expand both YoY/QoQ due to a richer product mix, absorption of price hikes, and marginally lower RM costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto Q4fy23 Preview - Improved Product Mix, Moderation in Rm Costs to Drive Margin Growth

India

Escorts Kubota Limited is among India's leading engineering conglomerates, operating in the high growth sectors of Agri Machinery, Material Handling, Construction Equipment and Railway Equipment. The Group has earned the trust of over 5 million customers by way of product and process innovations over seven decades.

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Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)

India - Positioning on Some Interesting Names

Quite a few Indian stocks have jumped in price recently and the increased market cap will put them on active investors radars and could get the...

Brian Freitas

Auto - Q1FY24 - Earnings Preview

On a QoQ basis, we forecast margin expansion for TVS/Bajaj in the 2W segment, which will be driven by higher export volume and a better product mix.

Axis Direct

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: HDFC Intra-Review Replacements & Other Expected Changes

Adani Enterprises or JSW Steel Ltd could replace HDFC in SENSEX. Hindustan Aeronautics and Linde India could be the replacement names for HDFC in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Monthly Volume Update - Automotive Industry

The Domestic 2W industry reported strong growth of ~27% YoY (albeit on a low base), even with some recovery evident on an MoM basis (up 18% MoM).

Axis Direct

Auto Q4fy23 Preview - Improved Product Mix, Moderation in Rm Costs to Drive Margin Growth

EBITDA margins are expected to expand both YoY/QoQ due to a richer product mix, absorption of price hikes, and marginally lower RM costs.

Axis Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India - Positioning on Some Interesting Names

Quite a few Indian stocks have jumped in price recently and the increased market cap will put them on active investors radars and could get the...

Brian Freitas

Auto - Q1FY24 - Earnings Preview

On a QoQ basis, we forecast margin expansion for TVS/Bajaj in the 2W segment, which will be driven by higher export volume and a better product mix.

Axis Direct

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​SENSEX Dec 23: HDFC Intra-Review Replacements & Other Expected Changes

Adani Enterprises or JSW Steel Ltd could replace HDFC in SENSEX. Hindustan Aeronautics and Linde India could be the replacement names for HDFC in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Monthly Volume Update - Automotive Industry

The Domestic 2W industry reported strong growth of ~27% YoY (albeit on a low base), even with some recovery evident on an MoM basis (up 18% MoM).

Axis Direct

Auto Q4fy23 Preview - Improved Product Mix, Moderation in Rm Costs to Drive Margin Growth

EBITDA margins are expected to expand both YoY/QoQ due to a richer product mix, absorption of price hikes, and marginally lower RM costs.

Axis Direct

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: HDFC Intra-Review Replacements & Other Expected Changes