Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

Macroeconomics

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Earlier this month, the news that the US and China were nearing a limited trade deal returned optimism to the markets. At the annual IMF and World Bank meetings, hopes that the global economy was likely to avoid recession in 2020 were still running high. However, data on global manufacturing and investment remain gloomy. Turkey’s military operation in response to US President Trump’s decision to pull US troops from Syria roiled Turkey’s markets. Despite the removal of the US sanctions after Turkey and Russia reached an accord in Sochi, we think higher geopolitical risks should remain embedded in Turkish yields. All eyes now should be on the Trump-Xi meeting and the US decision on tariffs on EU auto imports due in November.
This week, the US Fed is holding a regular meeting; the markets are widely expecting another 25bp cut in the Fed funds rate. An insufficiently hawkish Fed statement or an unexpected decision to keep the policy on hold could dilute the markets' optimism and provoke a sell-off in high-yielding assets. Furthermore, they would likely draw more criticism from Trump and stoke up concerns that the Fed has become a hostage in the US-China trade confrontation.
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Earlier this month, the news that the US and China were nearing a limited trade deal returned optimism to the markets. At the annual IMF and World Bank meetings, hopes that the global economy was likely to avoid recession in 2020 were still running high. However, data on global manufacturing and investment remain gloomy. Turkey’s military operation in response to US President Trump’s decision to pull US troops from Syria roiled Turkey’s markets. Despite the removal of the US sanctions after Turkey and Russia reached an accord in Sochi, we think higher geopolitical risks should remain embedded in Turkish yields. All eyes now should be on the Trump-Xi meeting and the US decision on tariffs on EU auto imports due in November.
This week, the US Fed is holding a regular meeting; the markets are widely expecting another 25bp cut in the Fed funds rate. An insufficiently hawkish Fed statement or an unexpected decision to keep the policy on hold could dilute the markets' optimism and provoke a sell-off in high-yielding assets. Furthermore, they would likely draw more criticism from Trump and stoke up concerns that the Fed has become a hostage in the US-China trade confrontation.


Geopolitical Comment: While Markets Are Hoping for US-China Mini-Deal, Turkey Is Playing with Fire

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/u-s-dollar-index-usdx" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26018:1">US Dollar Index (DXY) (DXY CURNCY)</a> continues its grind higher as non confirmation bear divergence matures to the point where an inflection top is taking shape.RSI and MACD non confirmations are maturing to the point of inflection into the next USD push higher near DXY 99.80. Indicator non confirmations (bear divergence) warn of tops as the bulk or market participants are long the USD (or short Euro) amid waning upside momentum (clear choppy overlap is indicative of indecision).Euro bear wedge mirrors the DXY rising grind and is drifting into lower wedge support and buy zone for an upside test.USD/JPY 106.70 represent the bull/bear pivot line for the JPY, global risk and the Nikkei.

US Dollar Index (DXY) (DXY CURNCY) continues its grind higher as non confirmation bear divergence matures to the point where an inflection top is taking shape.RSI and MACD non confirmations are maturing to the point of inflection into the next USD push higher near DXY 99.80. Indicator non confirmations (bear divergence) warn of tops as the bulk or market participants are long the USD (or short Euro) amid waning upside momentum (clear choppy overlap is indicative of indecision).Euro bear wedge mirrors the DXY rising grind and is drifting into lower wedge support and buy zone for an upside test.USD/JPY 106.70 represent the bull/bear pivot line for the JPY, global risk and the Nikkei.

DXY Exhaustive Reach as Non Confirmations Mature

DXY weekly cycle is breaking down on the back of non confirmation in trending indicators and the break of rising wedge support (falling wedge resistance the case of the Euro). Fresh Euro buy support lies near or just under 1.13.This webcast outlines what currencies in Asia we are trading a USD bounce and where to set intermediate short levels with a focus in the USD/SGD and USD/KRW near respective resistance points at 1.36 and 1,170.USD/THB is moving into a more strategic low and leading the USD bottom cycle in Asia with a focus on the 30.50 level. We closed our short from 32.00.EM FX short term lows are visible in a number of 5 wave counts that call for a dollar bounce and one that sets up a short in line with our DXY shift. We like the CAD on a USD bounce as the top commodity currency.Strategy points – Euro above 1.13 is bearish DXY (below 96.50). Weekly DXY cycle rolling over and calls for selling USD rallies. Sterling may have difficulty at 1.28. USD/JPY 109/108 pivotal for global risk (keep in mind the USD/JPY bearish formation is of a macro degree). US 10yr yield looks very oversold into weakness below 2% and may be a variable that helps the USD bounce near term. Our bet is for a bounce to 2.18% with scope to 2.30% (remain macro bearish yield to 1.62%).

DXY weekly cycle is breaking down on the back of non confirmation in trending indicators and the break of rising wedge support (falling wedge resistance the case of the Euro). Fresh Euro buy support lies near or just under 1.13.This webcast outlines what currencies in Asia we are trading a USD bounce and where to set intermediate short levels with a focus in the USD/SGD and USD/KRW near respective resistance points at 1.36 and 1,170.USD/THB is moving into a more strategic low and leading the USD bottom cycle in Asia with a focus on the 30.50 level. We closed our short from 32.00.EM FX short term lows are visible in a number of 5 wave counts that call for a dollar bounce and one that sets up a short in line with our DXY shift. We like the CAD on a USD bounce as the top commodity currency.Strategy points – Euro above 1.13 is bearish DXY (below 96.50). Weekly DXY cycle rolling over and calls for selling USD rallies. Sterling may have difficulty at 1.28. USD/JPY 109/108 pivotal for global risk (keep in mind the USD/JPY bearish formation is of a macro degree). US 10yr yield looks very oversold into weakness below 2% and may be a variable that helps the USD bounce near term. Our bet is for a bounce to 2.18% with scope to 2.30% (remain macro bearish yield to 1.62%).

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

US equities couldn’t muster an end of month consolidation.  They attempted to stabilise on Thursday but closed near their lows on Friday. The weight of the news was too much – Trump expanding tariffs threats to one of its biggest and most integrated trading partners, Mexico, and trade relations hardened between China and the US. Trump plans to convince the UK to avoid Huawei, China started its own “Entity” list to potential ban US companies, and it is preparing to halt rare earth mineral exports to the US.  Optimists are giving up on a global economic recovery, and Chinese PMI data confirm its manufacturing sector is struggling already from the trade war.   The tide may be turning against the USD as the market prices in significant Fed rate cuts, its yields fall sharply, and its equity market leads recent falls.  The USA is starting to look like one of the biggest potential losers in a trade war.  Its economic data are not revealing many problems yet, but this only suggests it has further to fall.  The market is likely to dismiss stronger US economic data and panic at the first sign of weakness (raising risks around the ISM and payrolls reports next week).

US equities couldn’t muster an end of month consolidation.  They attempted to stabilise on Thursday but closed near their lows on Friday. The weight of the news was too much – Trump expanding tariffs threats to one of its biggest and most integrated trading partners, Mexico, and trade relations hardened between China and the US. Trump plans to convince the UK to avoid Huawei, China started its own “Entity” list to potential ban US companies, and it is preparing to halt rare earth mineral exports to the US.  Optimists are giving up on a global economic recovery, and Chinese PMI data confirm its manufacturing sector is struggling already from the trade war.   The tide may be turning against the USD as the market prices in significant Fed rate cuts, its yields fall sharply, and its equity market leads recent falls.  The USA is starting to look like one of the biggest potential losers in a trade war.  Its economic data are not revealing many problems yet, but this only suggests it has further to fall.  The market is likely to dismiss stronger US economic data and panic at the first sign of weakness (raising risks around the ISM and payrolls reports next week). 

Safe Haven Status of the USD Starting to Crumble Under the Weight of Trump’s Trade Wars

CNY falls sharply illustrating that China bears most of the fallout from the trade war.  The US economy also suffers, mostly from the risk that China boycotts US brands, but Trump may have a significant advantage.  Bilateral US tariff policy may be an effective policy to counter China’s policy of subsidizing and regulatory support of its industry.  Trump can see a political gain from the trade war and is unlikely to easily back down.  The escalation in the dispute is likely to more permanently dampen optimism that the global economy will soon rebound from its slowdown.  Downward pressure on CNY is dragging down Asian currencies, although in the long run, production may shift to other Asian nations and support their currencies.  The AUD is dragged down both as an Asian currency and a commodity currency.  The EUR stabilizes, even though the EU economy is threatened, for the same reason JPY gains – little room for yields to fall, current account surplus, a reduction in carry trades.  Safe-haven currencies gain against a weakened USD; including bitcoin.

CNY falls sharply illustrating that China bears most of the fallout from the trade war.  The US economy also suffers, mostly from the risk that China boycotts US brands, but Trump may have a significant advantage.  Bilateral US tariff policy may be an effective policy to counter China’s policy of subsidizing and regulatory support of its industry.  Trump can see a political gain from the trade war and is unlikely to easily back down.  The escalation in the dispute is likely to more permanently dampen optimism that the global economy will soon rebound from its slowdown.  Downward pressure on CNY is dragging down Asian currencies, although in the long run, production may shift to other Asian nations and support their currencies.  The AUD is dragged down both as an Asian currency and a commodity currency.  The EUR stabilizes, even though the EU economy is threatened, for the same reason JPY gains – little room for yields to fall, current account surplus, a reduction in carry trades.  Safe-haven currencies gain against a weakened USD; including bitcoin.

Trump Presses His Advantage Against China; CNY Drags Down Asian Currencies

Germany

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Geopolitical Comment: While Markets Are Hoping for US-China Mini-Deal, Turkey Is Playing with Fire

Earlier this month, the news that the US and China were nearing a limited trade deal returned optimism to the markets. At the annual IMF and World...

Tatiana Orlova

DXY Exhaustive Reach as Non Confirmations Mature

US Dollar Index (DXY) (DXY CURNCY) continues its grind higher as non confirmation bear divergence matures to the point where an inflection top is...

Thomas Schroeder

Where to Sell the USD Post Bounce

DXY weekly cycle is breaking down on the back of non confirmation in trending indicators and the break of rising wedge support (falling wedge...

Thomas Schroeder

Safe Haven Status of the USD Starting to Crumble Under the Weight of Trump’s Trade Wars

US equities couldn’t muster an end of month consolidation. They attempted to stabilise on Thursday but closed near their lows on Friday. The...

Greg Gibbs

Trump Presses His Advantage Against China; CNY Drags Down Asian Currencies

CNY falls sharply illustrating that China bears most of the fallout from the trade war. The US economy also suffers, mostly from the risk that...

Greg Gibbs

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