Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>It's easy to identify breakouts because they are the most noticeable and generate a strong response.</li><li>It is precisely what happened when DXY broke below 100.53.</li><li>On the other hand, head fakes are often met with silence as hope for sustained trends persists.</li></ul>

It's easy to identify breakouts because they are the most noticeable and generate a strong response.It is precisely what happened when DXY broke below 100.53.On the other hand, head fakes are often met with silence as hope for sustained trends persists.

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul><li>The EUR/USD exchange rate has moved upwards with significant fluctuations over the course of March 2023.</li><li>As it can be observed in the main graph (Graph 1), there was a period of fluctuations in the exchange rate but with a steady upward trend.</li><li>The exchange rate fluctuated significantly over the course of the month reaching a high of 1.0901 on March 30th.</li></ul>

The EUR/USD exchange rate has moved upwards with significant fluctuations over the course of March 2023.As it can be observed in the main graph (Graph 1), there was a period of fluctuations in the exchange rate but with a steady upward trend.The exchange rate fluctuated significantly over the course of the month reaching a high of 1.0901 on March 30th.

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD - March 31, 2023

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>This week’s CFTC data reflect a deepening of USD bearish sentiment among investors.</li><li>Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reducing net USD longs slightly but exposure is holding close to recent levels.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

This week’s CFTC data reflect a deepening of USD bearish sentiment among investors.Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.Additional data shows Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reducing net USD longs slightly but exposure is holding close to recent levels.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Grows, JPY Shorts Covered

<ul><li>The EUR/USD exchange rate has been moving downwards, as seen in Graph 1.</li><li>There were four secondary movements throughout the considered time period i.e. February 1st to March 3rd, 2023.</li><li>More specifically, after declining during the first days of the month until February 7th, the currency pair stabilized from February 8th up to February 20th.</li></ul>

The EUR/USD exchange rate has been moving downwards, as seen in Graph 1.There were four secondary movements throughout the considered time period i.e. February 1st to March 3rd, 2023.More specifically, after declining during the first days of the month until February 7th, the currency pair stabilized from February 8th up to February 20th.

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD - March 3, 2023

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.</li><li>In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.</li><li>Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.</li></ul>

Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.

The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Head Fakes in Euro and DXY

It's easy to identify breakouts because they are the most noticeable and generate a strong response. It is precisely what happened when DXY broke...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD - March 31, 2023

By examining the RSI in Graph 4, an upward movement was observed along the trading range between 35 and 65, indicating a broadly neutral signal.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Grows, JPY Shorts Covered

Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.

Scotiabank

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD - March 3, 2023

The EUR/USD exchange rate has been moving downwards, as seen in Graph 1. There were four secondary movements throughout the considered time period...

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring

Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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