FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

We have turned our attention to the EUR in recent days, watching it break a key support on Monday (falling through 1.1300).  Its performance has been undermined by surprisingly weak activity data, and uncertainty over the state of the Chinese economy and global trade growth.  However, the Eurozone had a run of bad luck in 2018; including the yellow vest protests, Italian political turmoil, auto sector disruption, weak close neighbour emerging markets, and a slump in export markets.  Heightened uncertainty over US-China trade relations, China economy fears, and Brexit has further dampened market sentiment. But on most fronts, the disruptions are diminishing and it is likely, in our view, that external demand will recover from its recent slump. We see upside potential for EUR in the coming months.

We have turned our attention to the EUR in recent days, watching it break a key support on Monday (falling through 1.1300).  Its performance has been undermined by surprisingly weak activity data, and uncertainty over the state of the Chinese economy and global trade growth.  However, the Eurozone had a run of bad luck in 2018; including the yellow vest protests, Italian political turmoil, auto sector disruption, weak close neighbour emerging markets, and a slump in export markets.  Heightened uncertainty over US-China trade relations, China economy fears, and Brexit has further dampened market sentiment. But on most fronts, the disruptions are diminishing and it is likely, in our view, that external demand will recover from its recent slump. We see upside potential for EUR in the coming months.

The Fed’s newfound sensitivity to global economic and financial market risks has boosted global asset markets and softened the USD.  These moves may be limited by the still substantial global uncertainty over US trade policy, surprisingly weak economic data in Europe and China, tensions surrounding US legal action against Huawei, tech sector headwinds, Brexit, and a more toxic US political environment.  However, we would not be surprised to see a period of weaker USD trading unfold, especially if the US administration and China see progress in trade talks this week.

The Fed’s newfound sensitivity to global economic and financial market risks has boosted global asset markets and softened the USD.  These moves may be limited by the still substantial global uncertainty over US trade policy, surprisingly weak economic data in Europe and China, tensions surrounding US legal action against Huawei, tech sector headwinds, Brexit, and a more toxic US political environment.  However, we would not be surprised to see a period of weaker USD trading unfold, especially if the US administration and China see progress in trade talks this week.

The market appears somewhat prepared for a dovish tilt in the ECB policy meeting on Thursday.  This may involve an acknowledgement of downside risks to their outlook.  It does not appear that the market expects any significant change in the key policy guidance on rates at this time, but it is possible that the ECB extends its expected period before a hike further to push rate hike expectations beyond this year.  The topic of TLTROs may come up in questioning.  The ECB may be mulling announcing a fresh series of TLTRO as soon as the March policy meeting.  This should be seen largely as extending the existing QE policy, but at first brush, the market could view such discussion as a further dovish tilt.

The market appears somewhat prepared for a dovish tilt in the ECB policy meeting on Thursday.  This may involve an acknowledgement of downside risks to their outlook.  It does not appear that the market expects any significant change in the key policy guidance on rates at this time, but it is possible that the ECB extends its expected period before a hike further to push rate hike expectations beyond this year.  The topic of TLTROs may come up in questioning.  The ECB may be mulling announcing a fresh series of TLTRO as soon as the March policy meeting.  This should be seen largely as extending the existing QE policy, but at first brush, the market could view such discussion as a further dovish tilt.

The multipronged stimulus policy announcement in China appears significant and should help Chinese investor and economic confidence recover.  The market is probably braced for weaker Chinese December activity reports next week and should look forward with some increased confidence in Chinese equities.  This is likely to contribute to a firmer outlook for the EUR that has suffered from a slump in its industrial activity that appears to reflect weaker demand from China.  The AUD has been highly correlated with Chinese equities in the last year, and it may also respond positively to prospects for some recovery in China.  However, its upside may be hampered by the increasing concern over more rapidly falling house prices in Australia, weaker construction activity and fears that households may have slowed spending.  RBA rate cut expectations have increased and Australian rates have lagged the recent rebound in US rates.

The multipronged stimulus policy announcement in China appears significant and should help Chinese investor and economic confidence recover.  The market is probably braced for weaker Chinese December activity reports next week and should look forward with some increased confidence in Chinese equities.  This is likely to contribute to a firmer outlook for the EUR that has suffered from a slump in its industrial activity that appears to reflect weaker demand from China.  The AUD has been highly correlated with Chinese equities in the last year, and it may also respond positively to prospects for some recovery in China.  However, its upside may be hampered by the increasing concern over more rapidly falling house prices in Australia, weaker construction activity and fears that households may have slowed spending.  RBA rate cut expectations have increased and Australian rates have lagged the recent rebound in US rates.

Chinese Stimulus Vs. A Weak Australian Housing Market

Out-performance in the US economy, as was seen in 2018, seems much less likely in the year ahead.  Lower oil prices and slowing high tech sectors will dampen activity and assets in the US more than many other developed and EM countries.  The boost to equities and growth from US tax policy has passed its peak.  US politics is set to become increasingly partisan over the next two years of the Trump administration.  US trade policy has softened in the wake on the sharp fall in US equities in Q4.  Several EM countries have resolved their deep political distractions, and their economies have improved since mid-year.  We can see the USD reversing more of its gains in the last year as the global economic outlook stabilises and the Fed enters an extended pause in rates policy.

Out-performance in the US economy, as was seen in 2018, seems much less likely in the year ahead.  Lower oil prices and slowing high tech sectors will dampen activity and assets in the US more than many other developed and EM countries.  The boost to equities and growth from US tax policy has passed its peak.  US politics is set to become increasingly partisan over the next two years of the Trump administration.  US trade policy has softened in the wake on the sharp fall in US equities in Q4.  Several EM countries have resolved their deep political distractions, and their economies have improved since mid-year.  We can see the USD reversing more of its gains in the last year as the global economic outlook stabilises and the Fed enters an extended pause in rates policy.

USD Peaking with the Economic and Political Cycle

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Bearish Euro Sentiment Over-Done

We have turned our attention to the EUR in recent days, watching it break a key support on Monday (falling through 1.1300). Its performance has...

Greg Gibbs

Fed Completes Its Come-Down

The Fed’s newfound sensitivity to global economic and financial market risks has boosted global asset markets and softened the USD. These moves...

Greg Gibbs

ECB’s TLTROs Enter the Frame

The market appears somewhat prepared for a dovish tilt in the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. This may involve an acknowledgement of downside...

Greg Gibbs

Chinese Stimulus Vs. A Weak Australian Housing Market

The multipronged stimulus policy announcement in China appears significant and should help Chinese investor and economic confidence recover. The...

Greg Gibbs

USD Peaking with the Economic and Political Cycle

Out-performance in the US economy, as was seen in 2018, seems much less likely in the year ahead. Lower oil prices and slowing high tech sectors...

Greg Gibbs

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