FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

We see the recent resurgence in US yields as potentially the most important driver in the coming week or longer.  The resumption of the rise in US yields in the last week appears related to a more persistent underlying trend.  It has been supported by a rise in commodity prices, but occurred despite weaker confidence in global growth and equity markets, suggesting it may be a more pervasive trend likely to influence other markets, rather than be influenced by them. The USD reaction to higher US yields has hardly been straightforward in the last year, but it did strengthen broadly in-line with higher yields in the last week.  This may reflect troubles in the tech sector and broader geopolitical uncertainty undermining EM markets. EM equities and currencies have underperformed developed markets in the last month.  Some easing in trade tensions over the weekend may help stabilise EM currencies and global equities.  However, concerns over the tech sector are starting to run deeper and may prevent their recovery.  If US yields rise significantly further, they may also cap equities more broadly, and undermine EM currencies, especially high yielders more susceptible to US yields.  USD/JPY may initially benefit from higher US yields, but equity performance may limit gains.  EUR has been able to shake off a more significant slowdown in Eurozone economy momentum to date, underpinned by capital flows from SEK, CHF and RUB, but these have likely peaked.

We see the recent resurgence in US yields as potentially the most important driver in the coming week or longer.  The resumption of the rise in US yields in the last week appears related to a more persistent underlying trend.  It has been supported by a rise in commodity prices, but occurred despite weaker confidence in global growth and equity markets, suggesting it may be a more pervasive trend likely to influence other markets, rather than be influenced by them. The USD reaction to higher US yields has hardly been straightforward in the last year, but it did strengthen broadly in-line with higher yields in the last week.  This may reflect troubles in the tech sector and broader geopolitical uncertainty undermining EM markets. EM equities and currencies have underperformed developed markets in the last month.  Some easing in trade tensions over the weekend may help stabilise EM currencies and global equities.  However, concerns over the tech sector are starting to run deeper and may prevent their recovery.  If US yields rise significantly further, they may also cap equities more broadly, and undermine EM currencies, especially high yielders more susceptible to US yields.  USD/JPY may initially benefit from higher US yields, but equity performance may limit gains.  EUR has been able to shake off a more significant slowdown in Eurozone economy momentum to date, underpinned by capital flows from SEK, CHF and RUB, but these have likely peaked.

A Pervasive Rise in Yields May Propel Further USD Gains

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/049/770/original/CP%20header.jpg?1523938797" data-smartkarma-image-id="49770"></figure>We have made a case that EM FX is kicking off a cycle that will lead a USD key low in Asia stemming largely from the leading cycle in the TRY breakout and the secondary trigger breakout in BRL. We are seeing more signs of a reluctance for the USD trade low in in Asian FX and are gradually increasing USD long exposure which will play a role in the next equity decline in Asia.EM FX leading <div style="text-align: left;">To view click on this link: <a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/lfUq75NsE" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.screencast.com/t/lfUq75NsE&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1524024619361000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGlIcjXS-97LJt3X7JzCjDcjpZQxw">https://www.screencast.com/t/lfUq75NsE</a>  15:11 min.</div><div style="text-align: left;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/049/772/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1523938838" data-smartkarma-image-id="49772"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>
DXY – DXY 89 is the…
</div>

We have made a case that EM FX is kicking off a cycle that will lead a USD key low in Asia stemming largely from the leading cycle in the TRY breakout and the secondary trigger breakout in BRL. We are seeing more signs of a reluctance for the USD trade low in in Asian FX and are gradually increasing USD long exposure which will play a role in the next equity decline in Asia.EM FX leading To view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/lfUq75NsE  15:11 min.
FX webcast
DXY – DXY 89 is the…


EM FX Leading a Broader USD Cycle Low in Asia

What does the widening in USD and AUD LIBOR/OIS spreads and higher cross-currency swap basis mean for their exchange rates?  Some have argued that the implied tightening in financial conditions in their home countries may delay central bank rate hikes and undermine their exchange rates.  But this seems to ignore the fact that the spread widening has placed direct upward pressure on the effective carry from holding long positions in the USD and the AUD against other currencies.  We look specifically at the carry for 3mth and 2yr terms for the EUR/USD and AUD/USD.  Overall, FX markets remain difficult to call, and patience is required as the market grapples with tariffs, political uncertainty, and volatile equity markets.

What does the widening in USD and AUD LIBOR/OIS spreads and higher cross-currency swap basis mean for their exchange rates?  Some have argued that the implied tightening in financial conditions in their home countries may delay central bank rate hikes and undermine their exchange rates.  But this seems to ignore the fact that the spread widening has placed direct upward pressure on the effective carry from holding long positions in the USD and the AUD against other currencies.  We look specifically at the carry for 3mth and 2yr terms for the EUR/USD and AUD/USD.  Overall, FX markets remain difficult to call, and patience is required as the market grapples with tariffs, political uncertainty, and volatile equity markets. 

The USD has managed to shake-off increased political risk, although this remains a threat.  The prospect of a more upbeat FOMC may be supporting the USD. The market is looking for some upward revision to the dot-plot.  Eurozone confidence and inflation expectations have eased.  EUR yield spreads deteriorate to new lows.  AUD may have been undermined by weaker metals prices and risks to Chinese growth; including from the US protectionist threats.  The Australian employment report this week and improving prospects for corporate tax cuts may help support the AUD, but the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, and Financial Services Industry, and slowing housing market may be undermining investor demand for the AUD.

The USD has managed to shake-off increased political risk, although this remains a threat.  The prospect of a more upbeat FOMC may be supporting the USD. The market is looking for some upward revision to the dot-plot.  Eurozone confidence and inflation expectations have eased.  EUR yield spreads deteriorate to new lows.  AUD may have been undermined by weaker metals prices and risks to Chinese growth; including from the US protectionist threats.  The Australian employment report this week and improving prospects for corporate tax cuts may help support the AUD, but the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, and Financial Services Industry, and slowing housing market may be undermining investor demand for the AUD.

USD Shrugging-Off Political Risk, AUD Headwinds and EUR Cracks

Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class=""><li>This week in trade ideas: Tactical short Netflix and Tesla vs SPX. Stay long JPY and NOK. Consider short EUR-GBP and long Russia equities and OFZ (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/russia-strategy-cyclical-mettle-vs-meddling-structural-and-geopolitical-challenges" target="_blank">Russia Strategy: Cyclical Mettle Vs. Meddling Challenges</a>, 16 Mar-18).</li><li>Monday: Japan trade, China property px, Chile GDP, G20 (19-20 Mar), UK Davis-EU Barnier meeting</li><li>Tuesday: RBA minutes, UK CPI, Germany ZEW, South Africa CPI, Colombia BanRep/Chile BCCh MPC, Saudi MBS meets Trump</li><li>Wednesday: UK jobs, US existing home sales, FOMC, Malaysia CPI, Brazil BCB MPC, Argentina GDP</li><li>Thursday: NZ RBNZ MPC, Australia jobs, Japan/France/Germany flash PMI, Germany IFO, ECB Economic Bulletin, UK retails, BOE MPC, US PMI, Philippines BSP/Taiwan CBC/Indonesia BI MPC, EU Summit (22-23 Mar)</li><li>Friday: Japan/Canada CPI, US durables/new home sales, Russia CBR MPC, Italy parliament reopens, US spending bill deadline, South Africa Moody's decision</li><li>Corporate earnings: Oracle, Rosneft (Mon), Sberbank, Fedex (Tue), Tencent, Lukoil (Wed), Nike, Micron (Thu), Petrochina, Wynn Macau (Fri)</li><li>Market holidays: Japan (Wed)</li></ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.This week in trade ideas: Tactical short Netflix and Tesla vs SPX. Stay long JPY and NOK. Consider short EUR-GBP and long Russia equities and OFZ (see Russia Strategy: Cyclical Mettle Vs. Meddling Challenges, 16 Mar-18).Monday: Japan trade, China property px, Chile GDP, G20 (19-20 Mar), UK Davis-EU Barnier meetingTuesday: RBA minutes, UK CPI, Germany ZEW, South Africa CPI, Colombia BanRep/Chile BCCh MPC, Saudi MBS meets TrumpWednesday: UK jobs, US existing home sales, FOMC, Malaysia CPI, Brazil BCB MPC, Argentina GDPThursday: NZ RBNZ MPC, Australia jobs, Japan/France/Germany flash PMI, Germany IFO, ECB Economic Bulletin, UK retails, BOE MPC, US PMI, Philippines BSP/Taiwan CBC/Indonesia BI MPC, EU Summit (22-23 Mar)Friday: Japan/Canada CPI, US durables/new home sales, Russia CBR MPC, Italy parliament reopens, US spending bill deadline, South Africa Moody's decisionCorporate earnings: Oracle, Rosneft (Mon), Sberbank, Fedex (Tue), Tencent, Lukoil (Wed), Nike, Micron (Thu), Petrochina, Wynn Macau (Fri)Market holidays: Japan (Wed)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC, BOE, EU Summit, NPC Wrap, RBNZ, BSP, CBR/BCB Cuts, Moody's on SA

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

A Pervasive Rise in Yields May Propel Further USD Gains

We see the recent resurgence in US yields as potentially the most important driver in the coming week or longer. The resumption of the rise in US...

Greg Gibbs

EM FX Leading a Broader USD Cycle Low in Asia

We have made a case that EM FX is kicking off a cycle that will lead a USD key low in Asia stemming largely from the leading cycle in the TRY...

Thomas Schroeder

Spreads, Basis, and the USD and AUD

What does the widening in USD and AUD LIBOR/OIS spreads and higher cross-currency swap basis mean for their exchange rates? Some have argued that...

Greg Gibbs

USD Shrugging-Off Political Risk, AUD Headwinds and EUR Cracks

The USD has managed to shake-off increased political risk, although this remains a threat. The prospect of a more upbeat FOMC may be supporting...

Greg Gibbs

Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC, BOE, EU Summit, NPC Wrap, RBNZ, BSP, CBR/BCB Cuts, Moody's on SA

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Tactical short Netflix and Tesla vs SPX....

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)