Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

On the afternoon of Friday, March 23rd, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15428" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1">Evergreen Marine Corp Ltd (2603 TT)</a> reported FY17 preliminary results, which show the company made Operating and Net losses in Q417. After several consecutive quarters of steady improvements in core profitability, we were surprised to see the company post a significant Operating loss in the December quarter -- and we believe we are far more pessimistic on the container sector cycle than many observers, having turned negative on the sector several months…

On the afternoon of Friday, March 23rd, Evergreen Marine Corp Ltd (2603 TT) reported FY17 preliminary results, which show the company made Operating and Net losses in Q417. After several consecutive quarters of steady improvements in core profitability, we were surprised to see the company post a significant Operating loss in the December quarter -- and we believe we are far more pessimistic on the container sector cycle than many observers, having turned negative on the sector several months…

'Trade War' Chatter & A Surprise Q4 Loss: Time to Revisit Long CAL/Short Evergreen Pair Trade

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight rates and carrier profitability had improved sharply in the months following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18689" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18689:1">Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd (117930 KS)</a>'s August 2016 bankruptcy, and that further fundamental improvements would be much harder to come by. About six months after turning cautious on container shipping, we remain negative on the sector, and we believe 2018 will turn out to be worse…

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight rates and carrier profitability had improved sharply in the months following Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd (117930 KS)'s August 2016 bankruptcy, and that further fundamental improvements would be much harder to come by. About six months after turning cautious on container shipping, we remain negative on the sector, and we believe 2018 will turn out to be worse…

Container Shipping Sector: Six Months of Declining Share Prices Explained in Three Charts

Equity analyst - Containers, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Nilesh Tiwary

Equity analyst - Containers

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Highly levered to the industry turnaround: Driven by a strong rebound in the container freight rates, EMC has been able to maximise its earnings in 2017. Based on its latest monthly data, the overall revenue for FY17 has touched NTD 150bn (USD 5bn), with a growth rate of 21% y/y – not seen since 2012. Similarly, with another quarter to go, attributable profits for the first nine months has already touched NTD 6.8bn (USD 233m), also helped by a turnaround of its associate, EVA Air (EMC has a 16%…

Highly levered to the industry turnaround: Driven by a strong rebound in the container freight rates, EMC has been able to maximise its earnings in 2017. Based on its latest monthly data, the overall revenue for FY17 has touched NTD 150bn (USD 5bn), with a growth rate of 21% y/y – not seen since 2012. Similarly, with another quarter to go, attributable profits for the first nine months has already touched NTD 6.8bn (USD 233m), also helped by a turnaround of its associate, EVA Air (EMC has a 16%…

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

SummaryThe major indicators of container shipping in 2017 remained more firm than in 2016. The y/y comparisons for many data sets depict robust improvement. However, the outlook for 2018 is mixed. The supply-demand balance will improve slightly, demand growth will continue to be strong, and freight rates and the profits of carriers will strengthen at lower-than-expected rates as several temporary factors create a bump on the road to recovery. The creation of bigger alliances, and the escalation of…

SummaryThe major indicators of container shipping in 2017 remained more firm than in 2016. The y/y comparisons for many data sets depict robust improvement. However, the outlook for 2018 is mixed.  The supply-demand balance will improve slightly, demand growth will continue to be strong, and freight rates and the profits of carriers will strengthen at lower-than-expected rates as several temporary factors create a bump on the road to recovery.  The creation of bigger alliances, and the escalation of…

Container Shipping 2018 - Demand Buoyancy Drives Positive Outlook

Lead Analyst, Credit Research, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Konstantinos Oikonomopoulos

Lead Analyst, Credit Research

Credit

Credit positives<ul>
<li>S&amp;P upgraded CMA CGM by one notch to B+ on 10 Oct 2017. This was predicted by Drewry on 21 Sep when we published a note analysing the reasons we believe the company is set for a credit rating upgrade.</li>
<li>CMA CGM transported 11% greater volumes y/y in 3Q17 outperforming global throughput growth thanks to a good market environment additional capacity within Ocean Alliance. The group also achieved 13% higher rates per teu for the first 9M17 versus 9M16 at USD 1,098.9 per teu.</li>
<li>Credit…</li>
</ul>

Credit positives
S&amp;P upgraded CMA CGM by one notch to B+ on 10 Oct 2017. This was predicted by Drewry on 21 Sep when we published a note analysing the reasons we believe the company is set for a credit rating upgrade.
CMA CGM transported 11% greater volumes y/y in 3Q17 outperforming global throughput growth thanks to a good market environment additional capacity within Ocean Alliance. The group also achieved 13% higher rates per teu for the first 9M17 versus 9M16 at USD 1,098.9 per teu.
Credit…


CMA CGM Credit Research - Container Shipping

Taiwan

Evergreen Marine Corp. (Taiwan) Ltd. transports freight by ships. The Company operates container ships to move freight throughout the world. Evergreen Marine has interests in terminals, airline operations and motor freight transportation, as well as container manufacturing.

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Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)

'Trade War' Chatter & A Surprise Q4 Loss: Time to Revisit Long CAL/Short Evergreen Pair Trade

On the afternoon of Friday, March 23rd, Evergreen Marine Corp Ltd (2603 TT) reported FY17 preliminary results, which show the company made...

Daniel Hellberg

Evergreen Marine - Making Good Strides

Highly levered to the industry turnaround: Driven by a strong rebound in the container freight rates, EMC has been able to maximise its earnings in...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping 2018 - Demand Buoyancy Drives Positive Outlook

SummaryThe major indicators of container shipping in 2017 remained more firm than in 2016. The y/y comparisons for many data sets depict robust...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

CMA CGM Credit Research - Container Shipping

Credit positives S&P upgraded CMA CGM by one notch to B+ on 10 Oct 2017. This was predicted by Drewry on 21 Sep when we published a note...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

'Trade War' Chatter & A Surprise Q4 Loss: Time to Revisit Long CAL/Short Evergreen Pair Trade

On the afternoon of Friday, March 23rd, Evergreen Marine Corp Ltd (2603 TT) reported FY17 preliminary results, which show the company made...

Daniel Hellberg

Container Shipping Sector: Six Months of Declining Share Prices Explained in Three Charts

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight...

Daniel Hellberg

Evergreen Marine - Making Good Strides

Highly levered to the industry turnaround: Driven by a strong rebound in the container freight rates, EMC has been able to maximise its earnings in...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping 2018 - Demand Buoyancy Drives Positive Outlook

SummaryThe major indicators of container shipping in 2017 remained more firm than in 2016. The y/y comparisons for many data sets depict robust...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

CMA CGM Credit Research - Container Shipping

Credit positives S&P upgraded CMA CGM by one notch to B+ on 10 Oct 2017. This was predicted by Drewry on 21 Sep when we published a note...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research