Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 41 stocks in Korea in August 2024, among which 2 are in KOSPI and 39 are in KOSDAQ.</li>
<li>These 41 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in August and could underperform relative to the market.</li>
<li>The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in August include APR, Fadu, and Kuk Il Paper.</li>
</ul>


We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 41 stocks in Korea in August 2024, among which 2 are in KOSPI and 39 are in KOSDAQ.
These 41 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in August and could underperform relative to the market.
The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in August include APR, Fadu, and Kuk Il Paper.


End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in August 2024

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top.</li>
<li>Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top.
Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Shift Up IPO Trading - Strong Demand for Quality Asset but It Has Slipped Out of the Top Games

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With just over a third of the review period complete, there could be 12 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>Even with 12 potential changes, there is sector balance with over half the changes in the Information Technology sector. Passive trading impact varies from 0.04-4.1x ADV.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> since the start of the year with a big move higher since mid-May.</li>
</ul>


With just over a third of the review period complete, there could be 12 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY) at the December rebalance.
Even with 12 potential changes, there is sector balance with over half the changes in the Information Technology sector. Passive trading impact varies from 0.04-4.1x ADV.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) since the start of the year with a big move higher since mid-May.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: For Now, A Dozen Changes in December

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>FSS wants Nikke's MAU data to address revenue concerns. They also seek April and May sales data for Stellar Blade to address valuation concerns despite its recent launch.</li>
<li>Shift Up updated the prospectus with Nikke's increasing MAU data but didn't include Stellar Blade sales data. FSS may request further revisions, possibly delaying the IPO again.</li>
<li>Nikke's MAU has risen but plateaued versus the previous quarter, and uncertainty surrounds Stellar Blade's April-May sales, potentially impacting IPO pricing.</li>
</ul>


FSS wants Nikke's MAU data to address revenue concerns. They also seek April and May sales data for Stellar Blade to address valuation concerns despite its recent launch.
Shift Up updated the prospectus with Nikke's increasing MAU data but didn't include Stellar Blade sales data. FSS may request further revisions, possibly delaying the IPO again.
Nikke's MAU has risen but plateaued versus the previous quarter, and uncertainty surrounds Stellar Blade's April-May sales, potentially impacting IPO pricing.


What Did FSS Point Out to Shift Up? & What Impact Would It Have on Bookbuilding Sentiment?

<ul>
<li>There are 13 inclusions and 13 exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance to be implemented at the close on 13 June.</li>
<li>For the second consecutive review, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fadu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39896:1" rel="noopener">Fadu (440110 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsung-delta-tech-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4976:1" rel="noopener">Shinsung DeltaTech (065350 KS)</a> have been kept out of the index. Not sure what the index committee's beef with them is.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ150</a> since the start of the review period. This has been helped, in no small, part by the ban on short selling.</li>
</ul>


There are 13 inclusions and 13 exclusions for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the June rebalance to be implemented at the close on 13 June.
For the second consecutive review, Fadu (440110 KS) and Shinsung DeltaTech (065350 KS) have been kept out of the index. Not sure what the index committee's beef with them is.
The adds have outperformed the deletes and the KOSDAQ150 since the start of the review period. This has been helped, in no small, part by the ban on short selling.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: Short Sell Ban Definitely Helping

South Korea

Fadu Inc. oprates electronic component manufacturing businesses. The Company produces controller components, integrated circuits, and other products. Fadu conducts businesses in South Korea.

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Fadu (440110 KS)

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in August 2024

We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 41 stocks in Korea in August 2024, among which 2 are in KOSPI and 39 are in KOSDAQ.

Douglas Kim

Shift Up IPO Trading - Strong Demand for Quality Asset but It Has Slipped Out of the Top Games

Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: For Now, A Dozen Changes in December

There could be 12 changes for the KOSDAQ150 Index in December. The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the KOSDAQ150 Index...

Brian Freitas

What Did FSS Point Out to Shift Up? & What Impact Would It Have on Bookbuilding Sentiment?

This post investigates, based on the local market info, what FSS has pointed out to Shift Up for delaying the IPO schedule and explores their...

Sanghyun Park

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: Short Sell Ban Definitely Helping

There are 13 changes a side for the KOSDAQ150 in June. Most of the changes were forecast. Fadu and Shinsung Delta Tech have been ignored again. The...

Brian Freitas

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