'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/686/original/2019-02-02_09-34-42.png?1549067763" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77686"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">
Note: The Results &amp; Revision Score is the average of our Results Score and Forecasts/Revision Score and is updated daily for each company and then cap-weighted-aggregated into Peer Groups, Sectors and the Market Composite. Both scores have a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Results Score is calculated quarterly, using the most recent eight quarters of company data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measures the rate, degree and consistency of change for each metric. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted.</div>DRIP, DRIP, DRIP - We 'lead' this fortnight's update with our All-Market Composite Results &amp; Revision Score. Calculated daily, the score is a 'real-time' measure of the state of, and the outlook for, listed Japanese corporations. As the scoring methodology includes earnings momentum 'factors', the data series can be a useful leading indicator of forward earnings. The correlation with the market over the last four years is 0.578, with the indicator leading more often than lagging.   Since peaking on 16th November 2017, the Results &amp; Revisions Score has fallen by 62% and has now returned to the level of May 2017. In the last ten years, the score has only been lower than at present one-third of the time - mostly during the fiscal year ended March 2017 when the total market value averaged ¥550t, close to the December 2018 low. If we are to repeat the relatively-mild cyclical downturn of 2016, the Results &amp; Revision Score will turn negative in May of this year, and the 25th December 2018 low will be retested.<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/701/original/2019-02-02_14-11-25.png?1549084295" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77701"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>PAST THE PEAK - Our earnings indicator peaked 14 months ago, two months ahead of the market's high point on 26th January 2018. It now appears that aggregate reported earnings, as well as aggregate company forecasts for the current year, are now turning decisively lower after nine quarters of uninterrupted growth. Forecast Net Income for the current year is now 7% below the high point in trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Net Income from this cycle, which was reached two months ago. Operating Income is, as usual, 'lagging' and forecasts are still marginally ahead of TTM. The TTM all-market price-earnings ratio reached 11.5 times on Christmas Day, which will prove to be the cycle low point. We expect the return to median levels, to be achieved more through lower 'E' as opposed to a higher 'P'.  Mr Market is currently implying that Japanese corporate profits are due to fall by 23% on average from the cycle peak, or by 30% if we are to revisit the December low-point. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/746/original/2019-02-03_07-23-31.png?1549146223" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77746"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>THE FIRST CUT - 23% of listed companies reported their most recent quarterly earnings results in the last two weeks. For these companies, TTM revenues grew by 5.1% year-on-year, but only by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, the lowest qoq growth rate in over a year. TTM Operating Income is now 0.8% lower than the TTM total of one year ago and declined by 4.4% qoq. Operating margins fell by 49bps year-on-year.  Current forecasts for this group of companies imply 3.1% yoy top line growth, but only 0.3% compared to the quarter just declared. For Operating Income, the rates are -2.0% and 0.6%, reflecting the normal TTM-to-forecast 'lag'. Corporate Japan's profits are now rolling over and will be in a 'recession' by the fiscal year-end.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/722/original/2019-02-02_18-25-46.png?1549099572" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77722"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>INTERREGNUM - Our bear market rally has paused to look at and digest the earnings-announcement news flow and will likely be trendless for the next few weeks as 'good' reactions offset 'bad'. In due course, we expect the preponderance of negative momentum to tip the scales.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/724/original/2019-02-02_18-41-12.png?1549100508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77724"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>TORAKU @110 - The Toraku advance-decline indicator has continued to recover and is within ten points of the overbought zone, which has only been breached once since the market peak of January 2018. This signal is 'amber' and could be 'red' by the end of next week. <div class="content-highlight">
OUTLOOK &amp; RECOMMENDATIONS
<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios.</li>
<li>The equity market decline at the end of last year was well in advance of the underlying trends in the economy and corporate profits; the recent 10% rally has corrected that imbalance. Nevertheless, the global cycle has turned down sharply, and many economies will be in a recession by the end of this quarter. We expect Japanese corporate earnings to follow suit.  </li>
<li>Although some of the coming decline in aggregate earnings has been well-discounted, our Results &amp; Revision Score has yet to turn negative. Accordingly, we expect the market to retest the December 2018 low, probably in May when the FY2020 forecasts are announced and our score starts 'seeing red'.</li>
<li>In the near term and despite the rally in the more cyclical sectors, we continue to favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short Banks and Non-Bank Finance.</li>
</ul>
</div>In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance over the last two weeks, and, in addition to our regular roundup of results, revisions and stock performance including brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3700" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1">Anritsu (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12001" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1">Alps Alpine (6770 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24540" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24540:1">SanBio (4592 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/454" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1">Lixil (5938 JP)</a> (yes, again), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/752" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/219" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8197" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1">Cyberagent (4751 JP)</a>.

Source: Japan Analytics
Note: The Results &amp; Revision Score is the average of our Results Score and Forecasts/Revision Score and is updated daily for each company and then cap-weighted-aggregated into Peer Groups, Sectors and the Market Composite. Both scores have a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Results Score is calculated quarterly, using the most recent eight quarters of company data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measures the rate, degree and consistency of change for each metric. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted.DRIP, DRIP, DRIP - We 'lead' this fortnight's update with our All-Market Composite Results &amp; Revision Score. Calculated daily, the score is a 'real-time' measure of the state of, and the outlook for, listed Japanese corporations. As the scoring methodology includes earnings momentum 'factors', the data series can be a useful leading indicator of forward earnings. The correlation with the market over the last four years is 0.578, with the indicator leading more often than lagging.   Since peaking on 16th November 2017, the Results &amp; Revisions Score has fallen by 62% and has now returned to the level of May 2017. In the last ten years, the score has only been lower than at present one-third of the time - mostly during the fiscal year ended March 2017 when the total market value averaged ¥550t, close to the December 2018 low. If we are to repeat the relatively-mild cyclical downturn of 2016, the Results &amp; Revision Score will turn negative in May of this year, and the 25th December 2018 low will be retested.
Source: Japan Analytics
PAST THE PEAK - Our earnings indicator peaked 14 months ago, two months ahead of the market's high point on 26th January 2018. It now appears that aggregate reported earnings, as well as aggregate company forecasts for the current year, are now turning decisively lower after nine quarters of uninterrupted growth. Forecast Net Income for the current year is now 7% below the high point in trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Net Income from this cycle, which was reached two months ago. Operating Income is, as usual, 'lagging' and forecasts are still marginally ahead of TTM. The TTM all-market price-earnings ratio reached 11.5 times on Christmas Day, which will prove to be the cycle low point. We expect the return to median levels, to be achieved more through lower 'E' as opposed to a higher 'P'.  Mr Market is currently implying that Japanese corporate profits are due to fall by 23% on average from the cycle peak, or by 30% if we are to revisit the December low-point. Source: Japan AnalyticsTHE FIRST CUT - 23% of listed companies reported their most recent quarterly earnings results in the last two weeks. For these companies, TTM revenues grew by 5.1% year-on-year, but only by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, the lowest qoq growth rate in over a year. TTM Operating Income is now 0.8% lower than the TTM total of one year ago and declined by 4.4% qoq. Operating margins fell by 49bps year-on-year.  Current forecasts for this group of companies imply 3.1% yoy top line growth, but only 0.3% compared to the quarter just declared. For Operating Income, the rates are -2.0% and 0.6%, reflecting the normal TTM-to-forecast 'lag'. Corporate Japan's profits are now rolling over and will be in a 'recession' by the fiscal year-end.  Source: Japan AnalyticsINTERREGNUM - Our bear market rally has paused to look at and digest the earnings-announcement news flow and will likely be trendless for the next few weeks as 'good' reactions offset 'bad'. In due course, we expect the preponderance of negative momentum to tip the scales.Source: Japan AnalyticsTORAKU @110 - The Toraku advance-decline indicator has continued to recover and is within ten points of the overbought zone, which has only been breached once since the market peak of January 2018. This signal is 'amber' and could be 'red' by the end of next week. 
OUTLOOK &amp; RECOMMENDATIONS

We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios.
The equity market decline at the end of last year was well in advance of the underlying trends in the economy and corporate profits; the recent 10% rally has corrected that imbalance. Nevertheless, the global cycle has turned down sharply, and many economies will be in a recession by the end of this quarter. We expect Japanese corporate earnings to follow suit.  
Although some of the coming decline in aggregate earnings has been well-discounted, our Results &amp; Revision Score has yet to turn negative. Accordingly, we expect the market to retest the December 2018 low, probably in May when the FY2020 forecasts are announced and our score starts 'seeing red'.
In the near term and despite the rally in the more cyclical sectors, we continue to favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short Banks and Non-Bank Finance.

In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance over the last two weeks, and, in addition to our regular roundup of results, revisions and stock performance including brief comments on Anritsu (6754 JP), Alps Alpine (6770 JP), SanBio (4592 JP), Lixil (5938 JP) (yes, again), Fanuc (6954 JP), Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) , and Cyberagent (4751 JP).

Japan Fortnightly Update: Drip, Drip, Drip...

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/074/237/original/2019-01-01_09-45-52.png?1546303583" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="74237"></figure>

Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
DOWN, DOWN, DEEPER &amp; DOWN - Japanese equities were as unfashionable as the venerable 'Quo' in 2018, although all of the year's decline occurred in the fourth quarter. Our All-Market-Composite fell by 16.1%, only three sectors - REITs, Utilities and Telecoms - rose and four sectors - Metals, Building Materials, Technology Hardware and Machinery - fell by more than 30%. All of the sixteen outperforming sectors are domestically-orientated, and only two - Other Commercial Products and Other Consumer Products are manufacturing sectors. With no end in sight to the Bank of Japan's accommodation, interest rates remained at historically-depressed levels and provided no respite to financial sectors. Construction and Building Materials declined as the pre-Olympic construction order cycle peaked out, although Real Estate outperformed as office vacancy rates and rents reached three-decade new lows and new highs, respectively. The largest fourth-quarter declines were in the Energy, Internet, Information Technology and Commercial Services sectors and now offer some attractive stock-specific opportunities.




Source: Japan Analytics

DOWN, DOWN, DEEPER &amp; DOWN - Japanese equities were as unfashionable as the venerable 'Quo' in 2018, although all of the year's decline occurred in the fourth quarter. Our All-Market-Composite fell by 16.1%, only three sectors - REITs, Utilities and Telecoms - rose and four sectors - Metals, Building Materials, Technology Hardware and Machinery - fell by more than 30%. All of the sixteen outperforming sectors are domestically-orientated, and only two - Other Commercial Products and Other Consumer Products are manufacturing sectors. With no end in sight to the Bank of Japan's accommodation, interest rates remained at historically-depressed levels and provided no respite to financial sectors. Construction and Building Materials declined as the pre-Olympic construction order cycle peaked out, although Real Estate outperformed as office vacancy rates and rents reached three-decade new lows and new highs, respectively. The largest fourth-quarter declines were in the Energy, Internet, Information Technology and Commercial Services sectors and now offer some attractive stock-specific opportunities.

Japan: 2018 Sector Review - Down, Down, Deeper & Down

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

A comment from a Smartkarma client prompted me to dig through this. It was an interesting comment suggesting the high weight Nikkei 225 names, or high weight-low float names were getting squeezed by BOJ buying or by a short squeeze on the short basket which had been proposed by a number of sellside brokers after the BOJ dropped its Nikkei 225 buying. The likelihood and nature of the change in Nikkei 225 buying by the BOJ was most recently discussed in the insights below:
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="3">
<h2>Insights This Past Summer on BOJ ETF Buying and Nikkei 225</h2>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Date</td>
<td>Before/After BOJ</td>
<td>Title of Insight</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>19-Jul-2018</td>
<td>Before</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-passive-boj-heading-for-trouble-with-nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21980">JAPAN PASSIVE:  BOJ Heading For Trouble with Nikkei 225</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>23-Jul-2018</td>
<td>Before</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-passive-the-nikkei-225-baskets-if-boj-changes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22367">JAPAN PASSIVE:  The Nikkei 225 Baskets if BOJ Changes</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>27-Jul-2018</td>
<td>Before</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-passive-boj-to-buy-less-nikkei-225-highly-likely" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22484">JAPAN PASSIVE - BOJ To Buy Less Nikkei 225? Highly Likely</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>31-Jul-2018</td>
<td>After</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-passive-dovish-meeting-boj-to-buy-less-nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22617">JAPAN PASSIVE - Dovish Meeting; BOJ to Buy Less Nikkei 225</a></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
However, the BOJ and Nikkei 225 story has been a deceased equine I have been belabouring for 2+ years.
Of course, the trigger for many people's suggestions of a trade was the decision by the BOJ on 31 July to lower its annual rate of purchases of ETFs in the grouping of the TOPIX, Nikkei 225, and JPX Nikkei 400 basket which was seeing total buys of ¥3.0trln a year (in addition to the ¥2.7trln on TOPIX alone) to ¥1.5trln, raising and lifting the portion of "only TOPIX" to ¥4.2trln. That meant the total to be bought in Nikkei would drop from about ¥1.3-1.4trln to about half that, and JPX Nikkei 400 saw its portion of BOJ ETF buys drop to very low single digit percentages, with TOPIX taking about 85% of total buys from there on.
As described in numerous insights on Smartkarma dating back a few years, it is to be noted that the "float" on several Japanese stocks in the Nikkei 225 is not really "float" and Real World Float is much smaller. In some cases single digit percentages of the shares outstanding.
Many of us have watched the 70+% performance since end-August for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">Familymart Uny Holdings (8028 JP)</a> - one of my favored names to get heavily sold should the Nikkei 225 actually change its weighting methodology as I proposed earlier this year. It has been the avatar for high weight low-float names in the Nikkei 225.
So I tested the idea. The results were somewhat surprising.

A comment from a Smartkarma client prompted me to dig through this. It was an interesting comment suggesting the high weight Nikkei 225 names, or high weight-low float names were getting squeezed by BOJ buying or by a short squeeze on the short basket which had been proposed by a number of sellside brokers after the BOJ dropped its Nikkei 225 buying. The likelihood and nature of the change in Nikkei 225 buying by the BOJ was most recently discussed in the insights below:




Insights This Past Summer on BOJ ETF Buying and Nikkei 225



Date
Before/After BOJ
Title of Insight


19-Jul-2018
Before
JAPAN PASSIVE:  BOJ Heading For Trouble with Nikkei 225


23-Jul-2018
Before
JAPAN PASSIVE:  The Nikkei 225 Baskets if BOJ Changes


27-Jul-2018
Before
JAPAN PASSIVE - BOJ To Buy Less Nikkei 225? Highly Likely


31-Jul-2018
After
JAPAN PASSIVE - Dovish Meeting; BOJ to Buy Less Nikkei 225



However, the BOJ and Nikkei 225 story has been a deceased equine I have been belabouring for 2+ years.
Of course, the trigger for many people's suggestions of a trade was the decision by the BOJ on 31 July to lower its annual rate of purchases of ETFs in the grouping of the TOPIX, Nikkei 225, and JPX Nikkei 400 basket which was seeing total buys of ¥3.0trln a year (in addition to the ¥2.7trln on TOPIX alone) to ¥1.5trln, raising and lifting the portion of "only TOPIX" to ¥4.2trln. That meant the total to be bought in Nikkei would drop from about ¥1.3-1.4trln to about half that, and JPX Nikkei 400 saw its portion of BOJ ETF buys drop to very low single digit percentages, with TOPIX taking about 85% of total buys from there on.
As described in numerous insights on Smartkarma dating back a few years, it is to be noted that the "float" on several Japanese stocks in the Nikkei 225 is not really "float" and Real World Float is much smaller. In some cases single digit percentages of the shares outstanding.
Many of us have watched the 70+% performance since end-August for Familymart Uny Holdings (8028 JP) - one of my favored names to get heavily sold should the Nikkei 225 actually change its weighting methodology as I proposed earlier this year. It has been the avatar for high weight low-float names in the Nikkei 225.
So I tested the idea. The results were somewhat surprising.

Is It a Nikkei BOJ Squeeze on Nikkei 225 Low Float Names? Or Just FamilyMart Being FamilyMart?

PEER GROUP SCORES
INTRODUCTION - Following on from our earlier update on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-autumn-results-revisions-scores-market-composite-sector-review-slomo-slowdown" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25923">Market Composite &amp; Sectors</a>, this insight will cover the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores for the 328 Peer Groups that comprise our 30 Sectors and provide greater depth to our analysis of current business trends.  Peer Group definitions reflect both standard SIC/GICS classifications as well as local market conventions, allowing, for example, for regional sub-classifications for regional banks and group affiliation for auto parts companies. The number of constituents and size in terms of market capitalisation vary widely. However, all scores are cap-weighted.  We look at the top and bottom-ranked Peer Groups by Combined Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom changes in score over the last quarter. We also chart the relationships between the Results/Revision Scores and the Relative Price Score and divide our Peer Groups 'universe' into four quadrants - 'Contrarian Buy', 'Contrarian Sell', 'Peak Growth/Turnaround' and 'Overpriced Ex-Growth' and provide a list of Most Preferred and Least Preferred Peer Groups.
<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/070/749/original/2018-11-22_13-22-34.png?1542860580" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="70749"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>

PEER GROUP SCORES
INTRODUCTION - Following on from our earlier update on the Market Composite &amp; Sectors, this insight will cover the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores for the 328 Peer Groups that comprise our 30 Sectors and provide greater depth to our analysis of current business trends.  Peer Group definitions reflect both standard SIC/GICS classifications as well as local market conventions, allowing, for example, for regional sub-classifications for regional banks and group affiliation for auto parts companies. The number of constituents and size in terms of market capitalisation vary widely. However, all scores are cap-weighted.  We look at the top and bottom-ranked Peer Groups by Combined Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom changes in score over the last quarter. We also chart the relationships between the Results/Revision Scores and the Relative Price Score and divide our Peer Groups 'universe' into four quadrants - 'Contrarian Buy', 'Contrarian Sell', 'Peak Growth/Turnaround' and 'Overpriced Ex-Growth' and provide a list of Most Preferred and Least Preferred Peer Groups.


Source: Japan Analytics


Japan: Autumn Results & Revision Scores - Peer Groups - 'Four Quadrant' Analysis

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Since hitting a 52-week low of ¥50, 780 on October 26, Keyence has rebounded by 18%. On November 1, the company announced double-digit 1H sales and profit growth, and an increase in the dividend from ¥100 to ¥200 per share. On Friday, November 2, the share price jumped 11.3% to ¥60,060.Operating profit was up 16.6% on a 17.3% increase in sales in the six months to September, in marked contrast to poor results at other factory automation related companies such as Fanuc (6954 JP) and Omron (6645 JP). We attribute this to Keyence's gearing to incremental improvements rather than large capital outlays, and to customers' R&amp;D spending, plus its diversified user industries and active development of new markets.That does not mean that Keyence has escaped the slowdown affecting the overall factory automation business. Sales growth dropped from 19.7% in 1Q to 15.2% in 2Q and operating profit growth dropped from 21.2% to 12.7%. Net profit growth dropped to 9.3%, but that was due in part to the revision of financial statements at affiliate JustSystems (4686 JP), which resulted in an equity method loss.Year-on-year sales and operating profit growth rates peaked in the three months to Dec-17 at 34.0% and 40.7%, respectively, and have now declined for three quarters in a row. Before that, in the three months to Sep-16,  sales  and operating profit growth rates bottomed out at 2.6% and -0.1%. In view of industry trends and American protectionism, investor's concerns seem unlikely to dissipate until growth rates stop falling.In view of economic conditions, we have lowered our profit forecast for this fiscal year and lowered both our sales and profit forecasts for FY Mar-20. We expect growth to continue to decelerate for at least two more quarters. The shares are now selling at 31x our new EPS estimate for this fiscal year and 29x our estimate for next year. Their 5-year historical P/E range is 18x - 42x, with the market now splitting the difference. Consolidation of last week's gains seems likely.<div class="content-highlight">Keyence supplies sensors, measuring systems, laser markers, microscopes, machine vision systems and other products used in factory automation to a wide range of industries including electronics, autos, metal products, materials, food, pharmaceuticals and packaging.  It has more than 200,000 customers in about 100 countries and territories worldwide. These are served by offices in 30 countries in the Americas, Europe and Asia-Pacific, and by representatives elsewhere. Products, parts and materials are sourced from numerous suppliers, mostly in Japan, but in the case of parts and materials also in other countries. Goods for sale are finished in Japan. </div>

Since hitting a 52-week low of ¥50, 780 on October 26, Keyence has rebounded by 18%. On November 1, the company announced double-digit 1H sales and profit growth, and an increase in the dividend from ¥100 to ¥200 per share. On Friday, November 2, the share price jumped 11.3% to ¥60,060.Operating profit was up 16.6% on a 17.3% increase in sales in the six months to September, in marked contrast to poor results at other factory automation related companies such as Fanuc (6954 JP) and Omron (6645 JP). We attribute this to Keyence's gearing to incremental improvements rather than large capital outlays, and to customers' R&amp;D spending, plus its diversified user industries and active development of new markets.That does not mean that Keyence has escaped the slowdown affecting the overall factory automation business. Sales growth dropped from 19.7% in 1Q to 15.2% in 2Q and operating profit growth dropped from 21.2% to 12.7%. Net profit growth dropped to 9.3%, but that was due in part to the revision of financial statements at affiliate JustSystems (4686 JP), which resulted in an equity method loss.Year-on-year sales and operating profit growth rates peaked in the three months to Dec-17 at 34.0% and 40.7%, respectively, and have now declined for three quarters in a row. Before that, in the three months to Sep-16,  sales  and operating profit growth rates bottomed out at 2.6% and -0.1%. In view of industry trends and American protectionism, investor's concerns seem unlikely to dissipate until growth rates stop falling.In view of economic conditions, we have lowered our profit forecast for this fiscal year and lowered both our sales and profit forecasts for FY Mar-20. We expect growth to continue to decelerate for at least two more quarters. The shares are now selling at 31x our new EPS estimate for this fiscal year and 29x our estimate for next year. Their 5-year historical P/E range is 18x - 42x, with the market now splitting the difference. Consolidation of last week's gains seems likely.Keyence supplies sensors, measuring systems, laser markers, microscopes, machine vision systems and other products used in factory automation to a wide range of industries including electronics, autos, metal products, materials, food, pharmaceuticals and packaging.  It has more than 200,000 customers in about 100 countries and territories worldwide. These are served by offices in 30 countries in the Americas, Europe and Asia-Pacific, and by representatives elsewhere. Products, parts and materials are sourced from numerous suppliers, mostly in Japan, but in the case of parts and materials also in other countries. Goods for sale are finished in Japan. 

Keyence (6861 JP): 1H Results Impressive, but Slowdown Continues

Japan

FANUC CORPORATION manufactures factory automation (FA) systems and equipments, and robots. The Company's products include computerized numerically-controlled (CNC) equipment, servo motors, laser systems, industrial robots, wire-cut electric discharge machines, and CNC drill.  Fanuc participates in a joint venture with General Electric in the FA field.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fanuc Corp Unsp Adr (FANUY US)

Japan Fortnightly Update: Drip, Drip, Drip...

DRIP, DRIP, DRIP - We 'lead' this fortnight's update with our All-Market Composite Results & Revision Score. Calculated daily, the score is a...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: 2018 Sector Review - Down, Down, Deeper & Down

DOWN, DOWN, DEEPER & DOWN - Japanese equities were as unfashionable as the venerable 'Quo' in 2018, although all of the year's decline...

Campbell Gunn

Is It a Nikkei BOJ Squeeze on Nikkei 225 Low Float Names? Or Just FamilyMart Being FamilyMart?

A comment from a Smartkarma client prompted me to dig through this. It was an interesting comment suggesting the high weight Nikkei 225 names,...

Travis Lundy

Japan: Autumn Results & Revision Scores - Peer Groups - 'Four Quadrant' Analysis

PEER GROUP SCORES INTRODUCTION - Following on from our earlier update on the Market Composite & Sectors, this insight will cover the Results...

Campbell Gunn

Keyence (6861 JP): 1H Results Impressive, but Slowdown Continues

Since hitting a 52-week low of ¥50, 780 on October 26, Keyence has rebounded by 18%. On November 1, the company announced double-digit 1H sales and...

Scott Foster

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