Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Nomura Research Institute / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paper-industries-co-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:557:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) </li>
<li>Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.</li>
</ul>



Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP) and Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) will replace Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP) and Dic Corp (4631 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). 

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) 
Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With Fanuc's stock price down 12% in the past two weeks, short-term profit taking may have run its course. . </li>
<li>Management has lowered FY Mar-26 profit guidance while raising sales guidance -  not a good sign. </li>
<li>Not cheap at 36x new EPS guidance, particularly since AI, which management touts as one of the company's strengths, is becoming an industry standard.</li>
</ul>


With Fanuc's stock price down 12% in the past two weeks, short-term profit taking may have run its course. . 
Management has lowered FY Mar-26 profit guidance while raising sales guidance -  not a good sign. 
Not cheap at 36x new EPS guidance, particularly since AI, which management touts as one of the company's strengths, is becoming an industry standard.


Fanuc (6954 JP): Sales Strong, Margins Slipping

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Can expect more from the likes of Rakus Co Ltd, Shift Inc, NEC Corp and Fujitsu Ltd which all traded well yesterday on the rotation away from frontline AI plays.</li>
<li>It would make sense to see interest in physical AI FA plays such as Yaskawa Electric, Mitsubishi Electric, Keyence Corp and Fanuc Corp as alternative exposure to the AI theme.</li>
<li>The power semis such as Fuji Electric, ROHM Co Ltd and Renesas Electronics should hold up after a strong day for the sector in the US.</li>
</ul>


Can expect more from the likes of Rakus Co Ltd, Shift Inc, NEC Corp and Fujitsu Ltd which all traded well yesterday on the rotation away from frontline AI plays.
It would make sense to see interest in physical AI FA plays such as Yaskawa Electric, Mitsubishi Electric, Keyence Corp and Fanuc Corp as alternative exposure to the AI theme.
The power semis such as Fuji Electric, ROHM Co Ltd and Renesas Electronics should hold up after a strong day for the sector in the US.


Japan Morning Connection: Physical AI FA Plays May Draw Fresh Interest as Alternative AI Exposure

<ul>
<li>Rigaku worth watching as a play on the shift to 2D and more complex transistors requiring X-ray/metrology capabilities.</li>
<li>Photonics names QD Laser, Seiko Giken, Santec and Samco back on the menu for believers in co-packaged optics and photonic-driven AI scale-up.</li>
<li>Japanese space names finally looking more attractive after &gt;50% corrections from recent highs.</li>
</ul>


Rigaku worth watching as a play on the shift to 2D and more complex transistors requiring X-ray/metrology capabilities.
Photonics names QD Laser, Seiko Giken, Santec and Samco back on the menu for believers in co-packaged optics and photonic-driven AI scale-up.
Japanese space names finally looking more attractive after &gt;50% corrections from recent highs.


Japan Morning Connection: Broadening AI Rally Should Increase Photonics and Glass Substrate Focus

<ul>
<li>Kokusai +25% last week and JX Metals +25.6% likely reversal targets at the open.</li>
<li>TeraDrone is pivoting from industrial drones to defense after consolidating two Ukrainian combat drone companies, an interesting thematic to get behind.</li>
<li>Astroscale continued to drop -8.6% yesterday after its earnings showed increasing losses but still an interesting name given its focus on space-junk removal and orbital services.</li>
</ul>


Kokusai +25% last week and JX Metals +25.6% likely reversal targets at the open.
TeraDrone is pivoting from industrial drones to defense after consolidating two Ukrainian combat drone companies, an interesting thematic to get behind.
Astroscale continued to drop -8.6% yesterday after its earnings showed increasing losses but still an interesting name given its focus on space-junk removal and orbital services.


Japan Morning Connection: AI Related Names Set to Slide Following SOX's Skittish Retreat from Highs

Japan

FANUC CORPORATION manufactures factory automation (FA) systems and equipments, and robots. The Company's products include computerized numerically-controlled (CNC) equipment, servo motors, laser systems, industrial robots, wire-cut electric discharge machines, and CNC drill.  Fanuc participates in a joint venture with General Electric in the FA field.

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Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Nomura Research Institute and Ryohin Keikaku replace Nippon Paper and DIC in the Nikkei 225. Fast Retailing will be capped (and probably again in...

Brian Freitas

Fanuc (6954 JP): Sales Strong, Margins Slipping

The stock price has dropped 12% in two weeks, suggesting a rebound as the yen backs off recent gains. But profit guidance has been cut while sales...

Scott Foster

Japan Morning Connection: Physical AI FA Plays May Draw Fresh Interest as Alternative AI Exposure

Expect a continuation of the shift away from frontline AI plays. Interest in physical AI FA plays may see an increase as alternative exposure to...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Broadening AI Rally Should Increase Photonics and Glass Substrate Focus

Japanese SPEs continue to benefit from Korean tailwinds while photonics and glass substrate names should be increasingly back on the menu as...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Nomura Research Institute and Ryohin Keikaku replace Nippon Paper and DIC in the Nikkei 225. Fast Retailing will be capped (and probably again in...

Brian Freitas

Fanuc (6954 JP): Sales Strong, Margins Slipping

The stock price has dropped 12% in two weeks, suggesting a rebound as the yen backs off recent gains. But profit guidance has been cut while sales...

Scott Foster

Japan Morning Connection: Physical AI FA Plays May Draw Fresh Interest as Alternative AI Exposure

Expect a continuation of the shift away from frontline AI plays. Interest in physical AI FA plays may see an increase as alternative exposure to...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Broadening AI Rally Should Increase Photonics and Glass Substrate Focus

Japanese SPEs continue to benefit from Korean tailwinds while photonics and glass substrate names should be increasingly back on the menu as...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: AI Related Names Set to Slide Following SOX's Skittish Retreat from Highs

AI trade cracks under its own weight but big dips likely buying opportunities. Kokusai and JX Metals likely reversal targets.

Andrew Jackson