Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

With the BOJ announcing yesterday that it would double the upper limit of its ETF purchases to ¥12trn a year and its previous policy shift to favour TOPIX-based ETFs over Nikkei-based ETFs it made sense for TOPIX to outperform Nikkei today. However, we found the degree of outperformance to be slightly surprising as TOPIX rose 2.60% while the Nikkei barely squeaked out a +0.06% gain. Below, we examine some individual names within the two indices to try and identify pairs which could generate alpha based on this theme.

With the BOJ announcing yesterday that it would double the upper limit of its ETF purchases to ¥12trn a year and its previous policy shift to favour TOPIX-based ETFs over Nikkei-based ETFs it made sense for TOPIX to outperform Nikkei today. However, we found the degree of outperformance to be slightly surprising as TOPIX rose 2.60% while the Nikkei barely squeaked out a +0.06% gain. Below, we examine some individual names within the two indices to try and identify pairs which could generate alpha based on this theme.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

After the worst week in US equity markets in a long time, with sharply rising equity volatility causing risk parity funds and their ilk to shed what looked like $100bn+ of delta, and S&amp;P500 ETFs to see $20bn+ redeemed (amid fears of the possible uncontrollable spread of COVID-19 coronavirus), there were strong rumours of imminent coordinated central bank action over the weekend to prove that governments around the world were willing to act quickly to counter fears of economic weakness.We didn't get that. We got suggestions from Italy they would produce a stimulus package. German lawmakers tussled over whether or not stimulus was appropriate. EU officials high and low suggested that for the moment EU-level spending was inappropriate, some US politicians got upset that coronavirus test kits for the uninsured cost $3000+ (they don't), other politicians suggested $3000 was fine because the free market determined the price, and a president suggested the entire coronavirus thing was simultaneously a terrible blow to China and "fake news" - a hoax by the "deep state" and Democrats to try to injure his presidency (whatever else will be remembered by history in the decades to come, there will be memes).One central bank on Monday, however, did its thing.The BOJ governor issued an inter-meeting statement for the first time in many years. It was a simple statement, which said very little. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/375/original/Screenshot%202020-03-04%20at%2010.08.27%20PM.png?1583330921" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121375"></figure>Given an ongoing program of ETF buying and JGB YCC/QQE, it was not clear what this meant, however, by day-end, it WAS clear.<div class="content-highlight">The BOJ had symbolically stepped in to buy ¥100.2bn of ETFs - its largest one-day purchase program in many years. </div>That leaves us with a "What Next" question. Discussion ensues below.

After the worst week in US equity markets in a long time, with sharply rising equity volatility causing risk parity funds and their ilk to shed what looked like $100bn+ of delta, and S&amp;P500 ETFs to see $20bn+ redeemed (amid fears of the possible uncontrollable spread of COVID-19 coronavirus), there were strong rumours of imminent coordinated central bank action over the weekend to prove that governments around the world were willing to act quickly to counter fears of economic weakness.We didn't get that. We got suggestions from Italy they would produce a stimulus package. German lawmakers tussled over whether or not stimulus was appropriate. EU officials high and low suggested that for the moment EU-level spending was inappropriate, some US politicians got upset that coronavirus test kits for the uninsured cost $3000+ (they don't), other politicians suggested $3000 was fine because the free market determined the price, and a president suggested the entire coronavirus thing was simultaneously a terrible blow to China and "fake news" - a hoax by the "deep state" and Democrats to try to injure his presidency (whatever else will be remembered by history in the decades to come, there will be memes).One central bank on Monday, however, did its thing.The BOJ governor issued an inter-meeting statement for the first time in many years. It was a simple statement, which said very little. Given an ongoing program of ETF buying and JGB YCC/QQE, it was not clear what this meant, however, by day-end, it WAS clear.The BOJ had symbolically stepped in to buy ¥100.2bn of ETFs - its largest one-day purchase program in many years. That leaves us with a "What Next" question. Discussion ensues below.

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Equity Bottom-Up

This is the THIRD of a series of reports on Midea Corp. where we will be focusing on the company’s Robotics and Automation Systems segment. Midea has entered into the industrial robots and automation market in 2016 through the acquisition of Kuka, a German-based company offering automation and robotic systems. The Robotics &amp; Automation systems segment of Midea generated about 11% of the revenue in 2018 and we expect the segment’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 10% over the next 4-years driven by growth in demand for robots and automation systems globally.China is the world’s largest market for industrial robots which accounted for about 36% of total installations in 2018. Despite China accounting for the highest share of the global industrial robot market, the manufacturing robot density in China is still considerably lower compared to countries such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. The Chinese government has implemented several policy measures to increase factory automation and robotics usage in the country due to increasing wage rates and growing ageing population in China. While the demand for industrial robots is expected to grow globally, we expect China to continue to account for majority of this growth over the next couple of years given its lower robot penetration and the government of China’s initiatives towards promoting automation.Kuka currently has limited exposure in the Asian market where it generates a majority of its revenue in Europe followed by North America. We expect the company’s revenue share from China to grow over the forecast period.Midea is the only domestic player in China who has exposure to high-end industrial robotics market. The Chinese industrial robot market is dominated by foreign players like Fanuc, Yaskawa and ABB, whereas Kuka is ranked fourth in China. According to Statista, Kuka was ranked the fifth largest player globally in 2017. The company previously had limited exposure into the Chinese market and with Midea acquiring the Kuka, the company has been expanding extensively in China using Midea’s existing network of clients.

This is the THIRD of a series of reports on Midea Corp. where we will be focusing on the company’s Robotics and Automation Systems segment. Midea has entered into the industrial robots and automation market in 2016 through the acquisition of Kuka, a German-based company offering automation and robotic systems. The Robotics &amp; Automation systems segment of Midea generated about 11% of the revenue in 2018 and we expect the segment’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 10% over the next 4-years driven by growth in demand for robots and automation systems globally.China is the world’s largest market for industrial robots which accounted for about 36% of total installations in 2018. Despite China accounting for the highest share of the global industrial robot market, the manufacturing robot density in China is still considerably lower compared to countries such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. The Chinese government has implemented several policy measures to increase factory automation and robotics usage in the country due to increasing wage rates and growing ageing population in China. While the demand for industrial robots is expected to grow globally, we expect China to continue to account for majority of this growth over the next couple of years given its lower robot penetration and the government of China’s initiatives towards promoting automation.Kuka currently has limited exposure in the Asian market where it generates a majority of its revenue in Europe followed by North America. We expect the company’s revenue share from China to grow over the forecast period.Midea is the only domestic player in China who has exposure to high-end industrial robotics market. The Chinese industrial robot market is dominated by foreign players like Fanuc, Yaskawa and ABB, whereas Kuka is ranked fourth in China. According to Statista, Kuka was ranked the fifth largest player globally in 2017. The company previously had limited exposure into the Chinese market and with Midea acquiring the Kuka, the company has been expanding extensively in China using Midea’s existing network of clients.

KUKA - Midea’s Key to Automation and an Integral Part of Its Long-Term Strategy

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<div>The short notional in the market for the data released 25 February is US$25.03bn (up by US$955mm excluding FX movements) with the largest short positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-heavy-industries-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5439:1">Subaru Corp (7270 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a>.</div><div>Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aruhi-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1">Aruhi Corp (7198 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokai-carbon-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9145:1">Tokai Carbon (5301 JP)</a> while the stocks with the highest days to cover are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vital-ksk-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7398:1">Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aruhi-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1"></a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katakura-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2007:1">Katakura Industries (3001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-trust-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20246:1">J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1">Dcm Holdings (3050 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1"></a></div><div>The largest increases in short notional over the week were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-heavy-industries-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5439:1">Subaru Corp (7270 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1">Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokai-carbon-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9145:1">Tokai Carbon (5301 JP)</a>.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1"></a></div><div>Sectorally, short positions increased in Consumer Staples (US$283m), Consumer Discretionary (US$273m) and Health Care (US$112m).</div>

The short notional in the market for the data released 25 February is US$25.03bn (up by US$955mm excluding FX movements) with the largest short positions in Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Subaru Corp (7270 JP) and Canon Inc (7751 JP).Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are Anritsu Corp (6754 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Aruhi Corp (7198 JP) and Tokai Carbon (5301 JP) while the stocks with the highest days to cover are Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP), Katakura Industries (3001 JP), J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP) and Dcm Holdings (3050 JP). The largest increases in short notional over the week were Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP), Subaru Corp (7270 JP) and Advantest Corp (6857 JP) while shorts were covered in Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Fanuc Corp (6954 JP), M3 Inc (2413 JP) and Tokai Carbon (5301 JP).  Sectorally, short positions increased in Consumer Staples (US$283m), Consumer Discretionary (US$273m) and Health Care (US$112m).

Japan - Big Increase in Shorts Led by Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary Names

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/403/original/2020-02-18_08-44-22.png?1581983074" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118403"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/404/original/2020-02-18_08-42-56.png?1581983098" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118404"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>THREE-YEAR LOW - With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgestone-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1" rel="noopener">Bridgestone (5108 JP)</a>'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our Results Sore - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the Forecast/Revision Score to rise above the Results Score. Forecast/Revision Score peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the Results Score.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The Results Score cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/405/original/2020-02-18_09-29-28.png?1581985792" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118405"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>LEADING INDICATOR - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the Forecast/Revision Score. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are lagging indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. SCORING METHODOLOGY - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-<ul>
<li>Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.</li>
<li>The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.</li>
<li>The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score.</li>
<li>
All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into Sector, Peer Group and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.
<hr>
• SECTOR SCORES •
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/410/original/2020-02-18_09-55-29.png?1581987489" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118410"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
In the DETAIL Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The Metals Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. Technology Hardware appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the Information Technology Sector has replaced the Internet and Telecoms Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. 
</li>
</ul>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHREE-YEAR LOW - With Bridgestone (5108 JP)'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our Results Sore - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the Forecast/Revision Score to rise above the Results Score. Forecast/Revision Score peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the Results Score.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The Results Score cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. Source • Japan AnalyticsLEADING INDICATOR - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the Forecast/Revision Score. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are lagging indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. SCORING METHODOLOGY - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-
Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.
The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.
The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score.

All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into Sector, Peer Group and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.

• SECTOR SCORES •
Source • Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The Metals Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. Technology Hardware appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the Information Technology Sector has replaced the Internet and Telecoms Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. 



🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

Japan

FANUC CORPORATION manufactures factory automation (FA) systems and equipments, and robots. The Company's products include computerized numerically-controlled (CNC) equipment, servo motors, laser systems, industrial robots, wire-cut electric discharge machines, and CNC drill.  Fanuc participates in a joint venture with General Electric in the FA field.

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Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)

The Topix Vs. Nikkei Skew

With the BOJ announcing yesterday that it would double the upper limit of its ETF purchases to ¥12trn a year and its previous policy shift to...

Mio Kato

Coronavirus QE, the BOJ, and ETF Buying

After the worst week in US equity markets in a long time, with sharply rising equity volatility causing risk parity funds and their ilk to shed...

Travis Lundy

KUKA - Midea’s Key to Automation and an Integral Part of Its Long-Term Strategy

This is the THIRD of a series of reports on Midea Corp. where we will be focusing on the company’s Robotics and Automation Systems segment. Midea...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Japan - Big Increase in Shorts Led by Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary Names

The short notional in the market for the data released 25 February is US$25.03bn (up by US$955mm excluding FX movements) with the largest short...

Brian Freitas

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

THREE-YEAR LOW - With Bridgestone (5108 JP)'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our...

Campbell Gunn

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