Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q3 revenue/OP miss vs. our est. on weaker-than-expected Uniqlo International - FX and China weakness key drivers.</li>
<li>Japan and Western markets continue to outperform; U.S. and Europe now rival China in size.</li>
<li>FY company guidance unchanged but rising risks to next FY from tariffs and persistent China underperformance.</li>
</ul>


Q3 revenue/OP miss vs. our est. on weaker-than-expected Uniqlo International - FX and China weakness key drivers.
Japan and Western markets continue to outperform; U.S. and Europe now rival China in size.
FY company guidance unchanged but rising risks to next FY from tariffs and persistent China underperformance.


Fast Retailing(9983) | Q3 Miss But FY Guide Intact - Execution Solid, China Still Weak

<ul>
<li>Q3 earnings risk skewed to upside: we forecast sales/OP of ¥857b/¥171b vs. Street’s ¥826b/¥152b.</li>
<li>Domestic Uniqlo trends strong; international segment likely resilient despite Inditex’s headline miss.</li>
<li>Tariff impact likely reiterated but remains a FY26 issue, not a near-term earnings swing factor.</li>
</ul>


Q3 earnings risk skewed to upside: we forecast sales/OP of ¥857b/¥171b vs. Street’s ¥826b/¥152b.
Domestic Uniqlo trends strong; international segment likely resilient despite Inditex’s headline miss.
Tariff impact likely reiterated but remains a FY26 issue, not a near-term earnings swing factor.


FAST RETAILING (9983 JP) | Q3 Preview: Upside Risk into Print, But Tariff Narrative Still Overhangs

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> presents a mixed outlook characterized by strong earnings momentum tempered by some geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges. Analyst opinions are mixed but consensus is mostly = "Hold".</li>
<li>The stock started a pullback this week and is reaching a support zone that offers the possibility of entering LONG positions at a discounted price.</li>
<li>This is a short-term tactical setup but the stock can be hold for the long run if the rally continues in the coming weeks.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) presents a mixed outlook characterized by strong earnings momentum tempered by some geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges. Analyst opinions are mixed but consensus is mostly = "Hold".
The stock started a pullback this week and is reaching a support zone that offers the possibility of entering LONG positions at a discounted price.
This is a short-term tactical setup but the stock can be hold for the long run if the rally continues in the coming weeks.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP)Tactical Setup:  Buy-This-Dip

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has increased to 10.81% which will lead to another reduction in the CPAF in September.</li>
<li>Even after the reduction in CPAF and an increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a>'s PAF in September, there is a possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a> being capped again in March 2026.</li>
<li>The continued passive selling sets up interesting trading opportunities after periods of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> outperformance versus the other index constituents.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has increased to 10.81% which will lead to another reduction in the CPAF in September.
Even after the reduction in CPAF and an increase in BayCurrent Consulting's PAF in September, there is a possibility of Fast Retailing being capped again in March 2026.
The continued passive selling sets up interesting trading opportunities after periods of Fast Retailing (9983 JP) outperformance versus the other index constituents.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.</li>
<li>It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. </li>
<li>Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.
It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. 
Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.


Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Fast Retailing(9983) | Q3 Miss But FY Guide Intact - Execution Solid, China Still Weak

Uniqlo International weakness drives Q3 revenue miss, Japan and Western markets outperform while U.S. and Europe rival China in size. Tariffs and...

Mark Chadwick