Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Hawkish Fed Pause is Powell telegraphs +50bps hikes this year; SPX flat with most Sectors in the Red; PPI comfort as shows inflation declining; NVIDIA on the roll Again</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.3% vs Cash;  Positive earning revisions driving NKY;  Investors Cheer Toyotas revamped EV strategy + votes back in board; Oasis tgts Tsuruha board; Slow Uniqlo China momentum</li>
<li>NUGGET. The Japan Renewables(+Nuclear) Opportunity. Japan is lagging in it's Renewables ramp. The government's 2030 GHG reduction commitment presents signifcant opportunities.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Hawkish Fed Pause is Powell telegraphs +50bps hikes this year; SPX flat with most Sectors in the Red; PPI comfort as shows inflation declining; NVIDIA on the roll Again
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.3% vs Cash;  Positive earning revisions driving NKY;  Investors Cheer Toyotas revamped EV strategy + votes back in board; Oasis tgts Tsuruha board; Slow Uniqlo China momentum
NUGGET. The Japan Renewables(+Nuclear) Opportunity. Japan is lagging in it's Renewables ramp. The government's 2030 GHG reduction commitment presents signifcant opportunities.


Ohayo Japan |Hawkish Fed Pause; SPX Falters; NUGGET: The Japan Renewables(+Nuclear) Opportunity

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>SHEIN, a global online fashion and lifestyle retailer, has passed the HKEX listing hearing. GS, MS and JPM are joint sponsors.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company's business and financials and compared it with listed peers.</li>
<li>In this note, we forecast earnings and provide our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>


SHEIN, a global online fashion and lifestyle retailer, has passed the HKEX listing hearing. GS, MS and JPM are joint sponsors.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company's business and financials and compared it with listed peers.
In this note, we forecast earnings and provide our thoughts on valuation.


SHEIN (希音) Pre-IPO: Forecast and Valuation

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe</li>
</ul>


We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe


Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>After the accelerated transition to digital channels during Covid, the fashion sector had a calmer year in 2022 although GTVs still grew around 10%. </li>
<li>Most retailers spent the time investing in more seamless and coherent omnichannel models, and in making the best use of stores and staff in online promotions.</li>
<li>This shift to omnichannel is also leading to changing merchandising, including pre-selling inventory, while others are turning their online stores into malls. </li>
</ul>


After the accelerated transition to digital channels during Covid, the fashion sector had a calmer year in 2022 although GTVs still grew around 10%. 
Most retailers spent the time investing in more seamless and coherent omnichannel models, and in making the best use of stores and staff in online promotions.
This shift to omnichannel is also leading to changing merchandising, including pre-selling inventory, while others are turning their online stores into malls. 


Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX broke 4 day winning streak as JOLTS data showed slowing labor market; UST Ylds fell, with 2Yr hitting 3.82% - inflation beaten?; Jamie Dimon offers downbeat outlook</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.7;  Strong Mar SSS continue from JP retail - Fast Retailing 11.9% as Inbound demand recovers; Japanese Co's sorely lagging in Cybersecurity</li>
<li>NUGGET. Japan is fighting a losing battle for STEM talent. Demand is there - companies can pay, but legacy rigidities are hindering change and threatening the very survival of firms.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX broke 4 day winning streak as JOLTS data showed slowing labor market; UST Ylds fell, with 2Yr hitting 3.82% - inflation beaten?; Jamie Dimon offers downbeat outlook
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.7;  Strong Mar SSS continue from JP retail - Fast Retailing 11.9% as Inbound demand recovers; Japanese Co's sorely lagging in Cybersecurity
NUGGET. Japan is fighting a losing battle for STEM talent. Demand is there - companies can pay, but legacy rigidities are hindering change and threatening the very survival of firms.


Good Morning Japan |JOLTS Jolts Stocks; NUGGET: Battle for Talent - Japan’s Self Inflicted Wounds

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Ohayo Japan |Hawkish Fed Pause; SPX Falters; NUGGET: The Japan Renewables(+Nuclear) Opportunity

Hawkish Fed Pause; Stocks falter; NKY Futs +0.3% vs Cash; Investors Cheer Toyotas revamped EV strategy;votes back in board; Tsuruha in Oasis's...

Mark Chadwick

SHEIN (希音) Pre-IPO: Forecast and Valuation

SHEIN's forecast valuation is about half its last private round, with upside tied to margin recovery and regional growth.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

Japan's fashion e-commerce sector offers major growth stories among both online malls and physical retailers making a successful transition to...

Michael Causton

Good Morning Japan |JOLTS Jolts Stocks; NUGGET: Battle for Talent - Japan’s Self Inflicted Wounds

US equites go Defensive on JOLTS jobs data; IN JAPAN, Strong Mar SSS continue from JP retail - Fast Retailing 11.9% as Inbound demand recovers;...

Mark Chadwick

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52-week Range

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