Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Credit Suisse Rattles Markets; Spurs Equity sell off in flight to Safety trade;   UST 2Yr Yld back below 4%;  Crude Extend losses amid Banks sector worries;</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -2.6% vs Cash;  USDJPY 133.4.  NKY Futs surprisingly weak given JP untouched by turmoil; Govt considers Cash transfers to poor households; Inbound recovery Continues</li>
<li>NUGGET.  As Japan Hosts "Defense and Security Equipment International (DSEI) JAPAN"  trade show this week,  it will highlight opportunities for local defense contractors overseas.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Credit Suisse Rattles Markets; Spurs Equity sell off in flight to Safety trade;   UST 2Yr Yld back below 4%;  Crude Extend losses amid Banks sector worries;
JAPAN. NKY Futs -2.6% vs Cash;  USDJPY 133.4.  NKY Futs surprisingly weak given JP untouched by turmoil; Govt considers Cash transfers to poor households; Inbound recovery Continues
NUGGET.  As Japan Hosts "Defense and Security Equipment International (DSEI) JAPAN"  trade show this week,  it will highlight opportunities for local defense contractors overseas.


Good Morning Japan |Now Its Credit Suisse-Markets Rattled; NUGGET: Fuel for Japan's Defense Stocks

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>After stellar growth in 2020, the e-commerce market grew much slower in 2021 but still outpaced all other channels and set the second highest increase in four years.</li>
<li>At this rate, by 2025 e-commerce should become the largest retail channel, overtaking chain stores.</li>
<li>Japan’s easy access to retail stores means shops aren’t about to disappear anytime soon and Japan will become a model for omnichannel retailing with stores still playing a key role.</li>
</ul>


After stellar growth in 2020, the e-commerce market grew much slower in 2021 but still outpaced all other channels and set the second highest increase in four years.
At this rate, by 2025 e-commerce should become the largest retail channel, overtaking chain stores.
Japan’s easy access to retail stores means shops aren’t about to disappear anytime soon and Japan will become a model for omnichannel retailing with stores still playing a key role.


Japanese E-Commerce Big Review: Still Taking Market Share as Omnichannel Becomes the Norm

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Equities rise, defying higher yields and further yield curve inversion;  Fed's Bostic out again - talking of a summer pause; Telsa Day: Musk's Master Plan lacking details</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY Weakens to ¥136.8 on stronger USD;  Expectations rise  BOJ Policy Change in June;  Invidual invetors shifting to risk assets; Strong Retail SSS </li>
<li>NUGGET:Japan Video Streaming Wars: U-Next(9418) well positioned to flourish as consolidation kicks off in earnest.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Equities rise, defying higher yields and further yield curve inversion;  Fed's Bostic out again - talking of a summer pause; Telsa Day: Musk's Master Plan lacking details
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY Weakens to ¥136.8 on stronger USD;  Expectations rise  BOJ Policy Change in June;  Invidual invetors shifting to risk assets; Strong Retail SSS 
NUGGET:Japan Video Streaming Wars: U-Next(9418) well positioned to flourish as consolidation kicks off in earnest.


Good Morning Japan |Equities DEFY Yield Rise; Tesla Master Plan-Details Absent; NUGGET: U-Next(9418)

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>My base case valuation of Shein is market cap of US$26 billion, lower than the target IPO valuation range of US$30 billion to US$40 billion that the company is seeking.</li>
<li>Given the lack of upside, I have a Negative View of the Shein IPO.</li>
<li>I estimate Shein to generate net revenue of US$42.8 billion (up 2.3% YoY) in 2026, US$44.4 billion (up 3.7% YoY), and US$47.5 billion (up 6.9% YoY) in 2028.</li>
</ul>


My base case valuation of Shein is market cap of US$26 billion, lower than the target IPO valuation range of US$30 billion to US$40 billion that the company is seeking.
Given the lack of upside, I have a Negative View of the Shein IPO.
I estimate Shein to generate net revenue of US$42.8 billion (up 2.3% YoY) in 2026, US$44.4 billion (up 3.7% YoY), and US$47.5 billion (up 6.9% YoY) in 2028.


<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS:  US MLK Holidays - World markets directionless;  US Equity Futs flat; European Markets bid on Inflation peak;  BOJ decision to lead markets this week.</li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat at 128.52 ; BOJ speculation dominates local headlines;  Kuroda heads to Davos = no fireworks? ;  Dec Machine Tools orders +1%YoY</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET:  Fast Retailing and Sustainability: Set to introduce a new repair service in its domestic stores.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS:  US MLK Holidays - World markets directionless;  US Equity Futs flat; European Markets bid on Inflation peak;  BOJ decision to lead markets this week.
JAPAN:  NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat at 128.52 ; BOJ speculation dominates local headlines;  Kuroda heads to Davos = no fireworks? ;  Dec Machine Tools orders +1%YoY
DAILY NUGGET:  Fast Retailing and Sustainability: Set to introduce a new repair service in its domestic stores.


Good Morning Japan |US Off = Directionless; BOJ in Focus +2trn JGB Buying; Kuroda off to Davos

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Good Morning Japan |Now Its Credit Suisse-Markets Rattled; NUGGET: Fuel for Japan's Defense Stocks

NKY Futs surprisingly weak given JP untouched by turmoil; Govt considers Cash transfers to poor households; Inbound recovery Continues. NUGGET:...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Equities DEFY Yield Rise; Tesla Master Plan-Details Absent; NUGGET: U-Next(9418)

NKY Futs +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY Weakens to ¥136.8 on stronger USD; Expectations rise BOJ Policy Change in June; Invidual invetors shifting to...

Mark Chadwick

Shein IPO Valuation Analysis

My base case valuation of Shein is market cap of US$26 billion, which is lower than the target IPO valuation range of US$30 billion to US$40...

Douglas Kim

Good Morning Japan |US Off = Directionless; BOJ in Focus +2trn JGB Buying; Kuroda off to Davos

NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat; BOJ speculation dominates as Kuroda heads to Davos ; Dec Machine Tools +1%YoY. Global stealth rally...

Mark Chadwick

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52-week Range

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Good Morning Japan |Now Its Credit Suisse-Markets Rattled; NUGGET: Fuel for Japan's Defense Stocks

NKY Futs surprisingly weak given JP untouched by turmoil; Govt considers Cash transfers to poor households; Inbound recovery Continues. NUGGET:...

Mark Chadwick

Japanese E-Commerce Big Review: Still Taking Market Share as Omnichannel Becomes the Norm

Japanese e-commerce continues to take more share from other retail channels but Japan is developing a sophisticated omnichannel model where stores...

Michael Causton

Good Morning Japan |Equities DEFY Yield Rise; Tesla Master Plan-Details Absent; NUGGET: U-Next(9418)

NKY Futs +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY Weakens to ¥136.8 on stronger USD; Expectations rise BOJ Policy Change in June; Invidual invetors shifting to...

Mark Chadwick

Shein IPO Valuation Analysis

My base case valuation of Shein is market cap of US$26 billion, which is lower than the target IPO valuation range of US$30 billion to US$40...

Douglas Kim

Good Morning Japan |US Off = Directionless; BOJ in Focus +2trn JGB Buying; Kuroda off to Davos

NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat; BOJ speculation dominates as Kuroda heads to Davos ; Dec Machine Tools +1%YoY. Global stealth rally...

Mark Chadwick