Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>RBI finalized ECL-based provisioning directions effective April 1, 2027, with a four-year phase-in and minimum provisioning floors across asset classes.</li>
<li>One-Time CET-1 impact of up to 120 bps for most banks, while steady-state credit costs rise structurally particularly for lenders with large unsecured retail and SMA books.</li>
<li>PSU banks and high-unsecured-retail lenders face asymmetric pressure; large private banks with strong Stage 1 books and low SMA ratios are largely insulated but nobody is fully immune.</li>
</ul>


RBI finalized ECL-based provisioning directions effective April 1, 2027, with a four-year phase-in and minimum provisioning floors across asset classes.
One-Time CET-1 impact of up to 120 bps for most banks, while steady-state credit costs rise structurally particularly for lenders with large unsecured retail and SMA books.
PSU banks and high-unsecured-retail lenders face asymmetric pressure; large private banks with strong Stage 1 books and low SMA ratios are largely insulated but nobody is fully immune.


Thematic Report: A Structural Change in Indian Bank- ECL Based Provisioning

<ul>
<li>Private banks suffered <strong>2 brutal years</strong> of margin compression, rising bad loans in unsecured portfolios, and a deposit mobilisation war that squeezed profitability across the board.</li>
<li>
<strong>Deposit repricing tailwinds and CASA recovery</strong> support a Q4 NIM inflection, but MSME export stress from the West Asia conflict remains a credible near-term risk.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> offer the clearest risk-reward at current valuations; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a> reset creates opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Private banks suffered 2 brutal years of margin compression, rising bad loans in unsecured portfolios, and a deposit mobilisation war that squeezed profitability across the board.

Deposit repricing tailwinds and CASA recovery support a Q4 NIM inflection, but MSME export stress from the West Asia conflict remains a credible near-term risk.

ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) offer the clearest risk-reward at current valuations; Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) reset creates opportunity.


Private Banks: A Turnaround Is Brewing, But Trust Is Still Being Rebuilt

<ul>
<li>The banking sector will likely see earnings growth bottom out in FY26, with the second half potentially performing better than the first half as deposit rate reductions eventually flow through.</li>
<li>This divergence between declining lending rates and sticky deposit costs is the core driver of NIM compression.</li>
<li>This monetary easing is expected to exert downward pressure on banks' lending yields, impacting NIMs, particularly in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1HFY26). </li>
</ul>


The banking sector will likely see earnings growth bottom out in FY26, with the second half potentially performing better than the first half as deposit rate reductions eventually flow through.
This divergence between declining lending rates and sticky deposit costs is the core driver of NIM compression.
This monetary easing is expected to exert downward pressure on banks' lending yields, impacting NIMs, particularly in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1HFY26). 


Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> 's shares saw a sharp fall of 7% on Monday.</li>
<li>The fact that RBI shortened the tenure of MD &amp; CEO to two years baffled the market. </li>
<li>Shortening of tenures by the RBI have been seen earlier also for BFSIs. The move does not explicitly indicate any fundamental deficiency, hence investors should not be too worried.</li>
</ul>



Indusind Bank (IIB IN) 's shares saw a sharp fall of 7% on Monday.
The fact that RBI shortened the tenure of MD &amp; CEO to two years baffled the market. 
Shortening of tenures by the RBI have been seen earlier also for BFSIs. The move does not explicitly indicate any fundamental deficiency, hence investors should not be too worried.


IndusInd Bank- RBI's Decision May Not Be a Red Flag

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on ICICI Bank, Vedanta, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Petroleum, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Jindal Steel &amp; Power.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on ICICI Bank, Vedanta, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Petroleum, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Jindal Steel &amp; Power.


MS-India Index Earning Revision (Jul): ICICI Bank, Vedanta, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank

India

Federal Bank is a major Indian private sector commercial bank offering a comprehensive suite of banking and financial services, including retail banking, wholesale banking, and treasury operations. It provides products such as savings and current accounts, loans, credit and debit cards, insurance, and wealth management. The bank is headquartered in Aluva, Kochi, Kerala, India, and was founded on April 23, 1931.

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Federal Bank (FB IN)

Thematic Report: A Structural Change in Indian Bank- ECL Based Provisioning

RBI's new ECL-based provisioning guidelines will impact banks differently, with PSU and high-unsecured-retail lenders facing more pressure than...

Nimish Maheshwari

Private Banks: A Turnaround Is Brewing, But Trust Is Still Being Rebuilt

Private banks faced 2 tough years with margin pressure and bad loans, but Q4 NIM improvement expected; ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank offer good risk...

Nimish Maheshwari

Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Nimish Maheshwari

IndusInd Bank- RBI's Decision May Not Be a Red Flag

Shortening of tenures by the RBI have been common for BFSIs. The move does not explicitly indicate any fundamental deficiency which is why...

Nitin Mangal

MS-India Index Earning Revision (Jul): ICICI Bank, Vedanta, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank

We analyzed MS-India's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN), Vedanta (VEDL IN), Mahindra & Mahindra (MM...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Thematic Report: A Structural Change in Indian Bank- ECL Based Provisioning

​RBI's new ECL-based provisioning guidelines will impact banks differently, with PSU and high-unsecured-retail lenders facing more pressure than...

Nimish Maheshwari

Private Banks: A Turnaround Is Brewing, But Trust Is Still Being Rebuilt

​Private banks faced 2 tough years with margin pressure and bad loans, but Q4 NIM improvement expected; ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank offer good risk...

Nimish Maheshwari

Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

​Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Nimish Maheshwari

IndusInd Bank- RBI's Decision May Not Be a Red Flag

Shortening of tenures by the RBI have been common for BFSIs. The move does not explicitly indicate any fundamental deficiency which is why...

Nitin Mangal

MS-India Index Earning Revision (Jul): ICICI Bank, Vedanta, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank

We analyzed MS-India's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN), Vedanta (VEDL IN), Mahindra & Mahindra (MM...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

RBI's new ECL-based provisioning guidelines will impact banks differently, with PSU and high-unsecured-retail lenders facing more pressure than...

Private banks faced 2 tough years with margin pressure and bad loans, but Q4 NIM improvement expected; ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank offer good risk...

Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...