Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Iron ore continued to slip into negative territory and has now breached the lower end of the range of 95-130 USD/ton, which it has maintained over the last four years. </li>
<li>Data from CISA (China Iron and Steel Association) showed a decline in daily steel production YoY for May and June (tracking -4% YoY), after a lacklustre April (flat steel production). </li>
<li>The bright spot is that China continues to maintain strong net exports with May numbers at 10.1 million tons (121 million tons annualized), and mill margins are improving. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore continued to slip into negative territory and has now breached the lower end of the range of 95-130 USD/ton, which it has maintained over the last four years. 
Data from CISA (China Iron and Steel Association) showed a decline in daily steel production YoY for May and June (tracking -4% YoY), after a lacklustre April (flat steel production). 
The bright spot is that China continues to maintain strong net exports with May numbers at 10.1 million tons (121 million tons annualized), and mill margins are improving. 


Iron Ore Tracker (23-June-2025): Iron Ore Due for A Small Bounce?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 30th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Evolution Mining, Westpac, Goodman, Wisetech Global, Rio Tinto, Treasury Wine Estates, Gpt, National Australia Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 30th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Evolution Mining, Westpac, Goodman, Wisetech Global, Rio Tinto, Treasury Wine Estates, Gpt, National Australia Bank.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 30th): Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Evolution Mining, Westpac, Goodman

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices remain around $97/ton, down 0.5% WoW, staying within a long-term range of $95-$130/ton over the past four years, indicating sustained price stability at the lower end.</li>
<li>With weather conditions improving in Australia, we expect iron ore shipments to start increasing and China to import more than 100 million tons/month.  </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a>. The company recently presented at the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1r6Dq8xXDo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RIU Resources Round-up Conference in Sydney on 7 May 2025</a>. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices remain around $97/ton, down 0.5% WoW, staying within a long-term range of $95-$130/ton over the past four years, indicating sustained price stability at the lower end.
With weather conditions improving in Australia, we expect iron ore shipments to start increasing and China to import more than 100 million tons/month.  
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU). The company recently presented at the RIU Resources Round-up Conference in Sydney on 7 May 2025. 


Iron Ore Tracker (12-May-2025): Looking for Green Shoots In Iron Ore

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices experienced a modest WoW increase of 0.2%, reflecting easing trade tensions as the US considers reducing some of the stringent tariffs previously imposed.</li>
<li>China's Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 22% YoY, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.</li>
<li>China's March steel production rose 5% YoY to 92.8 million tons, underscoring its vital role in the market, contributing 56% to total global production.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices experienced a modest WoW increase of 0.2%, reflecting easing trade tensions as the US considers reducing some of the stringent tariffs previously imposed.
China's Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 22% YoY, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
China's March steel production rose 5% YoY to 92.8 million tons, underscoring its vital role in the market, contributing 56% to total global production.


Iron Ore Tracker (28-Apr-2025): Iron Ore Within The Band, China Lending Data To The Rescue

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> reported an increase in deliveries from Q3 FY25 to 704k tons from 346k tons/587k tons in Q1/Q2 FY25, transitioning from a 1.3 mtpa-2.8 mtpa runrate. </li>
<li>The company remains on track to commence production from the Beebyn W-11 mine by the September quarter of 2025, taking the annualized production rate to&gt;4.0 mtpa. </li>
<li>At ~4 mtpa, we expect the mines to generate 200 mn AUD of operating cash flow (at 100 USD/ton iron ore price), equivalent to FEX's market cap. </li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported an increase in deliveries from Q3 FY25 to 704k tons from 346k tons/587k tons in Q1/Q2 FY25, transitioning from a 1.3 mtpa-2.8 mtpa runrate. 
The company remains on track to commence production from the Beebyn W-11 mine by the September quarter of 2025, taking the annualized production rate to&gt;4.0 mtpa. 
At ~4 mtpa, we expect the mines to generate 200 mn AUD of operating cash flow (at 100 USD/ton iron ore price), equivalent to FEX's market cap. 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News

Australia

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

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Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Iron Ore Tracker (23-June-2025): Iron Ore Due for A Small Bounce?

This insight covers China's TSF, steel production rates, iron ore imports, mill margins, port inventories, and other KPIs impacting iron ore...

Sameer Taneja

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 30th): Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Evolution Mining, Westpac, Goodman

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Sigma Pharmaceuticals (SIG AU), Evolution Mining...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Iron Ore Tracker (12-May-2025): Looking for Green Shoots In Iron Ore

Iron ore has been rangebound at $95-$100/ton since “Liberation Day.” Could China's stimulus boost demand, especially since China accounts for over...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (28-Apr-2025): Iron Ore Within The Band, China Lending Data To The Rescue

Encouraging lending in China, a rebound in steel production, and reduced trade tensions provide a basis for iron ore prices to increase from 98 USD...

Sameer Taneja

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News

We summarize the concall highlights for Q3FY25 Fenix Resources (FEX AU) operations. With the company not exercising its right to match its CZR AU...

Sameer Taneja

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